One Year of Shah: Road Ahead for BJP’s Chanakya

Amit Shah, BJP’s Chanakya has tough challenges ahead in his second term as party president, writes Kay Benedict

Modi’s ‘Man Friday’

• As Amit Shah enters the second term as party president a deluge of setbacks stare the party and the government
• Containing the adverse fallout of the Vyapam scam and the Lalitgate would be among Shah’s toughest calls in coming days
• Amit Shah should be credited with making the BJP a strong, pan-India party within a year of his assuming charge
• As party president his role crucial in reaching out to catankerous regional satraps, like the TMC and ADMK
• Immediate test for the party and Shah would be Bihar polls, a defeat in Bihar will only boost the morale of a belligerent Opposition

Amitbhai Anilchandra “Amit” Shah is unarguably the second most powerful man in India today. A master strategist and a modern day Chanakya, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s ‘Man Friday’, wields forbidding power both in the BJP as well as in the government.  Shah, who replaced Rajnath Singh as the party president July last year, completed one year in office on July 8.

Challenges ahead for troubleshooter

As he enters the second year in office, a deluge of setbacks stare the party and the government in the face. Will Shah, who has never lost an election since 1989 (he contested as many as 28 of them), be able to steer the party through the mess, worst after the Tehelka sting operation which felled then president Bangaru Laxman, in 2001?

Containing the adverse fallout of Vyapam scam, the ugliest of Indian scams so far and the Lalitgate linking external affairs minister Sushma Swaraj and Rajasthan chief minister Vasundhara Raje Scindia, on the party, will be among his toughest calls in the coming days. Will he be able to minimise electoral damage by securing the resignation of Madhya Pradesh chief minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan, whom the Opposition has charged with abetting the Vyapam scam?

Shah’s biggest political challenge, however, will be the upcoming Bihar elections, the outcome of which could bolster or undermine his pre-eminent position in the party. A victory in October will not only help him tighten his grip over the party apparatus but also contain burgeoning criticism within the party over his “autocratic” style of functioning.

Party reorganisation under Shah

While one has to wait till the year end to see whether Shah will be able to weather the gathering storms, he should be credited with making the BJP a strong, pan-India party within a year of his assuming charge.  He was instrumental in making the membership drive a big success enrolling as many as ten crore new members and making the party most visible in social and mass media. He is also mulling a training programme for 15-odd Lakh members to make them into political activists.

A few months ago, Shah had dissolved all BJP cells as part of an exercise to tone up the organisation. A new core team, akin to the high-powered Congress core group has been constituted. Recently, he revamped the party set-up assigning key roles to his confidants. As many as 18 departments have been restructured to help good governance, coordinate with states and media relations, to make it more effective.

Working in close coordination with the Prime Minister, Shah is also overseeing popular campaigns such as Beti Bachao-Beti Padhao, Swachh Bharat and Namami Gange.

As a proactive party president, Shah has also been helping the Prime Minister in cosying up to cantankerous regional satraps such as the Trinamool Congress chief Mamata Banerjee and ADMK supremo J. Jayalalithaa, primarily to get their parties’ support in Parliament to isolate the Congress-Left led Opposition thus getting crucial bills passed.

Nonetheless, it remains to be seen how he sets out to face the enormous challenges that lie ahead. While Bihar elections are crucial, polls in Uttar Pradesh are due in early 2017. Shah, who micro-managed “Mission UP” that led to an unprecedented 71 out of 80 Lok Sabha seats for the BJP in heartland Uttar Pradesh in 2014, needs to win at least a simple majority in the UP assembly to ward off his detractors. Improving the party tally in West Bengal, Tamil Nadu and opening account in Kerala in 2016 will be a bonus for him.

Shah has to also help the party penetrate deep into the South, where it has not been able to make much headway so far.

Immediate Test Will Be Bihar

Recently, he handpicked a core group of 300 party executives and assigned them the task of winning the state elections wherever the Opposition is in power. Addressing them, inter alia, he is learnt to have exhorted: “End the jungle raj, bring BJP to power with a clear majority in Bihar”.

His immediate test will be Bihar. A defeat in Bihar, coming after the near wipe out in Delhi early this year at the hands of Aam Aadmi Party, will not only shatter the impression of Shah’s invincibility, but also boost the morale of the belligerent Opposition as well as his tormentors within the party who are now lying low. If Shah fails to win Bihar, that will only swell the ranks of his critics in the party.

Already a number of marginalised senior leaders- L. K Advani, Sushma Swaraj, Murli Manohar Joshi, Rajnath Singh, Uma Bharati, Nitin Gadkari, Yashwant Sinha and Shatrughan Sinha – are sulking.  Some including Advani, Yashwant Sinha, R. K. Singh, Kirti Azad, K. Govindacharya, had even gone public criticising the party soon after the IPL scam hit headlines. Bihar results will be interesting for all – the BJP, the Opposition and Shah, in particular.

(The writer is a political commentator)