Nilambur Bypoll isn't Just UDF vs LDF: It's About an Old Rivalry Among Muslim Leaders of Malappuram

On the face of it, the bypoll in Kerala's Nilambur shouldn't count for much. Whoever wins will get to represent the seat for less than a year, with Assembly elections due in the state around April-May 2026. However, the stakes are extremely high, especially for the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF).The main story in the election isn't so much about the UDF and LDF, it's about a tussle between three strands of Muslim leadership that have dominated Nilambur's politics for decades. Nilambur has been a strong seat for the Congress, but it is situated in North Kerala's Malappuram district, a bastion of the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML). IUML is the second biggest party in the UDF after the Congress. However, in parts of Malappuram district, sections of the Congress and the League have opposed each other.The two major candidates in this election - Congress's Aryadan Shoukath and Independent candidate PV Anvar - are both from staunchly Congress families who have also been ideologically anti-IUML.PV Anvar is among the rare set of politicians in Kerala who have made their name as Independents in a state that's almost vertically divided between two strong alliances. Anvar belongs to the Puthanveetil family that has traditionally been associated with the Congress. His grandfather and father were both freedom fighters. His father Shoukkathali Puthanveetil, a loyalist of Jawaharlal Nehru, had contested the 1962 Lok Sabha elections on a Congress ticket from Manjeri but lost to the Muslim League. The family has historically been opposed to the IUML in Malappuram district. Anvar began his political career with the Kerala Students' Union, the Congress' students' wing in the state. He became an important Youth Congress leader in Malappuram district. However, he was squeezed for political space within the UDF because of veteran Congress leader Aryadan Muhammed and the IUML.Anvar briefly threw his lot with former CM K Karunakaran and his son K Muraleedharan when they formed the Democratic Indira Congress. But Anvar didn't return to the Congress even when the DIC ceased to exist and Muraleedharan went back to the Grand Old Party. The reason was the same - he knew he would find it difficult to find space with the IUML dominating UDF politics in Malappuram and Aryadan Muhammed being the Congress' main face there.In 2011, Anvar contested from the Eranad Assembly constituency as an Independent but lost to the League. However, he secured over 40 percent votes, giving IUML a good fight. That election was one of IUML's strongest-ever performances in the state as it won 20 out of 24 seats it contested. It completely dominated Malappuram district. Due to his strong performance even in defeat, the LDF began seeing Anvar as a possible means to take on the UDF in Malappuram. The LDF wanted Anvar to follow the example of KT Jaleel, an Independent with a League background who defeated IUML heavyweight PK Kunhalikutty in 2006 from Kuttipuram and subsequently won thrice from Thavanur.Therefore in 2016, Anvar contested as an Independent from Nilambur and defeated Aryadan Muhammed's son Aryadan Shoukath. He won the seat again in 2021.Anvar is known to be a hardworking leader with good local connect. He is also known to take independent positions on different issues. In the LDF he began crticising CM Pinarayi Vijayan and made allegations of smuggling against a police officer close to the CM. This eventually led to his exit from the LDF and his resignation as MLA. He later joined the All India Trinamool Congress. However, the story didn't end here. He was in talks with the UDF, which allegedly promised to nominate a candidate of his choice from the seat. However, when the Congress decided to field Aryadan Shoukath, a known rival of Anvar, the deal with UDF fell through. Anvar eventually decided to contest against Shoukath, reversing his earlier decision of not contesting the seat. Due to a technicality, he isn't contesting on a Trinamool ticket though the party is backing him. Ludhiana West Bypoll: AAP Win Won't Surprise but Losing Would be Disaster for itA Congress veteran, Aryadan Muhammed was the main face of the Congress in Malappuram district and also the party's most prominent Muslim leader in Kerala until his death in 2022. He also was an important minister in the Oommen Chandy government (2011-16). However, in Malappuram, Aryadan Muhammed was a fierce critic of the IUML, despite the latter being a Congress ally. According to former state Congress president Mulappaly Ramachandran, Aryadan Muhammed saw the League as a "communal party". Many of his loyalists in Nilambur have also been opposed to the IUML. Aryadan Shoukath began his career in the Kerala film industry as a screenwriter and producer. Many of his films were deeply political. His National Award winning film Padam Onnu: Oru Vilapam raised the issue of education among Muslim women in Kerala. His other films have also dealt with issues of religious fundamentalism among both Hindus and Muslims.Shoukath, like is father, is also seen as being opposed to the League. When he contested the 2016 Assembly elections from Nilambur but lost to Anvar, there were allegations that the League may have had a role to play in it. This time, however, the IUML is said to be working hard to ensure the UDF's victory in Nilambur. More on that later. The Congress has also deputed many senior leaders like Priyanka Gandhi Vadra to campaign for the bypoll. She is said to have gathered substantial crowds during her campaign. While Shoukath and the League seem to have bridged their differences, Anvar's presence makes the election unpredictable.Anvar is said to have suggested the Congress to field a Christian candidate and not Shoukath. Shoukath winning would mean weaken Anvar as they are competing for the same space. Despite their earlier differences with Anvar, the IUML was in favour of his induction in the UDF as they hoped to gain by his influence in some pockets in the local body elections and later in the 2026 Assembly elections as well. Their aim was to ensure that Muslim votes don't split in Nilambur and that it would then set the done for a consolidation in the run-up to the Assembly polls. However, now with Anvar contesting, the League's plans have suffered a setback. IUML leaders like PK Kunhalikutty have blamed Leader of the Opposition VD Satheesan of "mismanaging" the entire episode of bringing Anvar into the UDF. Muslim League leaders feel that even if the Congress had to field Shoukath, they could have been a bit more accommodating towards Anvar.The IUML now wants to make sure that Shoukath wins Nilambur. A defeat would not just be a loss of prestige for the IUML in its strongest district, it would also be seen as a repeat of 2016 and fuel mistrust within the UDF. Shoukath, too, on his part has made it a point to keep the League on his side. He began launched his campaign from ancestral home of the Panakkad Thangal family who lead the IUML. The LDF has an outside chance in the election and its prospects would largely depend on how well or badly Anvar does. With Nilambur being a Congress bastion with a sizable League presence, it is difficult for the LDF to win the seat on its own might. Its best bet has been to transfer its votes to an Independent like Anvar who gets a big chunk of non-Left votes on his own. Though this is still theoretically possible, it would be difficult for the LDF to transfer votes to Anvar given his allegations against the government. The only way Left can win this seat is if there's a vertical split in the UDF base between Shoukath and Anvar and complete consolidation of the non-UDF vote behind the LDF. The LDF has fielded former youth wing leader M Swaraj, who originally hails from Nilambur but had become an MLA from Thripunithura in Ernakulam district. Also in the fray are BJP's Mohan George and SDPI's Sadiq Naduthodi. The votes they get could make a difference in a close contest. CM Pinarayi Vijayan, however, is giving the election his best shot. Besides showcasing the work done by the government, the CM has also been raising ideological issues in the run-up to the bypoll. On one hand, the CM has taken a strong stand against Israel regarding the genocide in Gaza and its ongoing conflict with Iran. On the other hand, it has accused the Congress of having a deal with the Jamaat-e-Islami. This isn't the first time he has made this allegation. However, the Jamaat has been questioning this line of criticism from the CM and claimed that even the CPI-M has taken Jamaat's help on several occasions in the past. Nilambur has consistently elected a Muslim MLA since 1980. However unlike many other seats in Malappuram, this is not a seat where Muslims are in a clear majority. According to estimates, Hindus and Muslims are both around 45 percent in the seat, with Christians forming the rest. The demographic profile of the seat has been crucial in deciding its electoral history. The CPI-M has consistently struggled in seats with a sizable Muslim population and Nilambur is no exception. As a result, it has had to rely on an Independent like PV Anvar. However, the fact that Hindus and Muslims are comparable in number was a reason why this seat went to the Congress' kitty and not the League. The seat is typically suited for secular, non-Left politics that takes along all communities. Both Anvar and Shoukath represent this strand of politics, just as Aryadan Muhammed did before them.

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Nilambur Bypoll is About a Decades-Old Rivalry Among Muslim Leaders of Malabar

The 2 main candidates, Aryadan Shoukath and PV Anvar, are from Congress families that have also been anti-IUML.

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Topics: LDF UDF Kerala