Manoj Jarange vs Devendra Fadnavis Maratha protests: As Maharashtra government orders SIT probe against Jarange, Did BJP wait for the wight time to act?

"I thank you for carrying out this agitation with great restraint, discipline, and making the movement a success without making a fuss anywhere. Manoj Jarange Patil also showed discipline in every meeting." - Maharashtra CM Eknath Shinde, 27 January, 2023"I said it in an earlier press conference too. The language (used by Manoj Jarange Patil) is not that of an activist, it is political. Who is behind it?" - CM Shinde, 27 February, 2023.The two statements by the Maharashtra chief minister, given exactly a month apart, are enough to indicate that the tables have turned against the Maratha reservation activist who had the state government on the brink for the past seven months.The change of stance by Shinde comes at a time when the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), rallying behind deputy CM Devendra Fadnavis, has given a clear message to Jarange - 'enough is enough'.Throughout his agitation, Jarange built and furthered the narrative that Fadnavis, a Brahmin, is 'anti Maratha'. The breaking point, however, came on 25 February when Jarange accused Fadnavis of "conspiracy to kill."After months of giving in to his demands and pacifying his mass protests via peaceful dialogue, the state government on 27 February approved forming of Special Investigating Team (SIT) to probe if there is indeed a political party backing Jarange and his movement, and the source of his funding.Many within the BJP, however, say that Jarange had it long-coming.Addressing the Assembly on 27 February, Fadnavis maintained a balance of a calculated attack on Jarange while stressing on the importance to "probe who's behind him.""It is unfortunate that while invoking Chhatrapati Shivaji Maharaj, anyone would speak ill of someone's mother and sister like this. While I have no complaints against him, we have to find out who is backing him," Fadnavis said.With Nationalist Congress Party - Sharadchandra Pawar (NCP(SP)) as the prime target, the ruling 'Mahayuti' is speaking in one voice of Jarange having the backing of Opposition's Maha Vikas Aghadi alliance.A tirade against Jarange, while directly accusing Sharad Pawar of backing him, was led by cabinet minister Ashish Shelar and MLC Pravin Darekar.Demanding Jarange's arrest, Darekar even claimed that Sharad Pawar, party leader Rohit Pawar and MLA Rajesh Tope had instigated Jarange to spread unrest in the state and held closed-door meetings for the same.While, Fadnavis reportedly said that Jarange was "reading a script written by Sharad Pawar," the latter called the allegations "irresponsible and childish for the stature of a deputy CM."In the eye of the storm is also NCP(SP) MLA Rajesh Tope. Darekar accused that meetings involving Sharad Pawar and Rohit Pawar took place at Tope's factory ahead of the violence that took place in Antarwali Sarati vilage last year from where matters escalated.Darekar also pointed towards the fact that Tope had made arrangements for food and water supply for protesters in Jalna."If there are protests happening in my region, where lakhs of people are to be involved, I provided those things on grounds of humanity. I would have done that if any demonstration of that scale would have happened. I gave water to the thirsty and food to the hungry. I have done that for demonstrations by other communities in the past too," Tope said, adding that he will "quit politics if found guilty of a conspiracy."With Ashok Chavan, Congress Loses Eminent Maratha Face, BJP Wins Perception GameMany within the BJP question Jarange's motive behind keeping the agitation going despite the government announcing 10% reservation for the community in February."The Marathas know what I have done for them and that's precisely why they have stood by me," Fadnavis said in the Assembly on Monday. If one takes a closer look at the BJP's performance in the Marathwada and Vidarbha regions under Fadnavis' tenure as the chief minister from 2014-2019, the claim appears to be on shaky grounds.In 2019, out of 8 Lok Sabha seats in Marathwada, four went to the BJP — Jalna, Beed, Nanded and Latur — and two were bagged by the undivided Shiv Sena — Parbhani and Hingoli.The combined vote share of BJP and Shiv Sena (united) in Marathwada dropped from 44.3% in the 2014 Assembly elections to 40.4% in 2019.Out of the 10 seats in Vidarbha, six are with the BJP — Nagpur, Bhandara-Gondia, Chandrapur, Wardha, Gadchiroli, and Akola — while three were bagged by the united Shiv Sena then.The vote share of the BJP-Sena alliance in Vidarbha, however, witnessed a significant drop from 47.6% in the 2014 Assembly elections to 39.4% in 2019.What's undisputedly strong, though, is the organisational strength of the party in both these regions. Sources say that given the BJP-Sena's performance in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections in both regions, it is keen to contest most seats in these regions and has actively been pitching for the same.Given the intensity of the current politics and the formation of the SIT, most leaders and activists working with Jarange The Quint reached out to refused to speak openly on the developments.Sources, however, confirmed that many associated with the movement are questioning the timing of the action against Patil.While Jarange's attacks on Fadnavis have continued throughout the movement, the government, many said, waited for the reservation to go through to take legal action against him.The BJP may not have wanted to further upset the already agitated Marathas against the Mahayuti by going after Jarange.The message of Fadnavis being 'anti-Maratha', however, has been clear. Despite Jarange's unsubstantiated and objectionable claims against Fadnavis, the narrative that he is 'anti-Maratha' is as strongly believed by his supporters as it was before.While Jarange has apologised for his statements, Fadnavis too has softened his blows for now.Speaking at a TV9 Marathi conclave on 1 March, Fadanavis said: "Jarange has clarified why he said it. He said that he had not eaten in days, hence he lost control of his words. I won't pay much attention to it and you (media) shouldn't either. Let him be, he is new (in politics). Such comments have been made by veteran politicians in the past too."The curiosity, however, is around Shinde's change of stance.Though the Mahayuti is now looking to pin the blame on Sharad Pawar, Rohit Pawar, and Tope, the fact that Shinde was looking to score points among Marathas by going politically soft on Jarange throughout the movement is clear as day.Sharad Pawar, Raj Thackeray, Prakash Ambedkar — most tall Opposition leaders and their colleagues from the state were clicked with Jarange in Antarwali Sarati in the initial phase of the protests. So, the answer to question that the SIT is looking to probe — 'Whose political backing did Manoj Jarange Patil have?' — may remain as ambiguous as it was before.Deconstructing the BJP's OBC and Maratha Strategy in Maharashtra

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Manoj Jarange Vs Devendra Fadnavis: Did BJP Wait for the Right Time to Act?

By launching an SIT probe, the BJP has given a clear message to Maratha activist Jarange — 'enough is enough'.