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Four Major Takeaways from Rajya Sabha Deputy Chairperson Election

To view the election as BJP’s gain and Congress-led opposition’s loss will be too simplistic.

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Politics
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Janata Dal (United) MP Harivansh has been elected as the deputy chairperson of Rajya Sabha. However, to view the election as yet another feather in the top BJP leadership’s cap and one of the many failed attempts of the Congress-led opposition, attempting some sort of resurrection, will be too simplistic. Here is a list of hits for the BJP and the Congress:

  1. Securing open support from Naveen Patnaik-led Biju Janata Dal (BJD) should be counted as one of the biggest positives for the BJP.
  2. The BJP can heave a sigh of relief now that its estranged ally Shiv Sena seems to be coming on board.
  3. The deepening of ties between the BJP and Nitish Kumar-led JD (U) can potentially help the NDA in Bihar.
  4. The Congress should be happy that a broader opposition alliance consisting of influential parties like the BSP, the SP, the DMK, the TMC and the Left parties is taking a concrete shape.
  5. The Congress’ willingness to accommodate the interests of its allies (it was willing to field a non-Congress candidate if numbers were in place) and influential non-Congress leaders’ proactive approach to make the opposition unity work should be counted as another positive for the grand old party.
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Other than five pluses for the two principal parties, the election has four broad messages.

1. BJP’s Ally Appeasement Approach Seems to Have Worked

The BJP’s choice of candidate for the post of Rajya Sabha deputy chairperson was meant to send a message to all its allies, present and potential, that Amit Shah-led party is ready to shed its big brother attitude and keen to accommodate the interests of its fellow travellers.

The symbolism of getting members of the BJP, the Shiv Sena, the Akali Dal and the JD (U) to endorse the candidature of NDA nominee Harivansh was aimed to achieve that. It was because of this symbolism perhaps that parties like the BJD and the INLD found it convenient to openly pledge their support for the NDA candidate.

And it was precisely for the same reason that the Shiv Sena and the Akali Dal decided to give up all their past differences.

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The BJP’s changed approach is a result of the realisation that the party may fall short of an absolute majority in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. And there has been a concerted effort to send a signal to all its present and future allies that their concerns would be taken care of.

From BJP president Amit Shah’s recent parleys with leaders of important allies to PM’s speech in Parliament during the no-confidence motion—all point to a change of stance on the part of the ruling party.

2. BJP-JD (U) Ties on Firm Wicket in Bihar Now

The election of Harivansh has put paid to all the reported differences between the JD (U) and the BJP. By agreeing to give the crucial post of the deputy chairperson of Rajya Sabha to its key ally, the BJP has ensured that the NDA stays united in politically significant Bihar.

The move may reduce some of the anticipated wrangling in the seat-sharing for the general election. The JD (U) may appear to be less demanding henceforth, helping the BJP assuage the feelings of other allies in the state.  This is going to boost the morale of NDA rank and file in Bihar, eager as they are to do an encore in the forthcoming Lok Sabha elections. The NDA had won 31 of the 40 Lok Sabha seats in the state.

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3. Broad Opposition Alliance is a Work-in-Progress

On the eve of crucial voting on Thursday, the AAP went on record, blaming the Congress for coming in the way of an emerging opposition unity. The AAP, with its three members in the Rajya Sabha, chose to abstain from the voting, weakening the opposition cause to make an impression.

Similarly, the Congress-led opposition’s failed attempt to bring the BJD on board should be seen as some sort of a setback. Another source of worry for the opposition ranks should be less than expected number of votes secured by Congress candidate BK Hariprasad.

The Congress candidate should theoretically have secured more than 110 votes but ended up getting just 105 seats. However, proponents of a strong opposition alliance should take heart from the fact that seemingly disparate groups – Left parties and TMC, to name just one—seem to be firmly on board.

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4. BJP Likely to be Less Combative in Odisha?

There are reports of growing bonhomie between the BJP and the BJD. The BJP has perhaps reconciled to the fact that toppling the BJD in Odisha is going to be a tough ask and has therefore become less offensive against the Naveen Patnaik regime.

Patnaik, on his part, has reciprocated not once but many times. From abstaining during the no-confidence motion to open support for the idea of holding simultaneous elections across the country, Patnaik has been supportive of the BJP stance on many major issues.

There are reports of the Prime Minister himself calling Patnaik, seeking support for the NDA nominee for the election of RS deputy chairperson. According to reports, there is a tacit understanding between the BJP and the BJD to not encroach on each other’s turf.

While Patnaik seems least interested in playing a key role at the Centre, BJP seems to have decided to go slow in Odisha. This is going to have implications for the Assembly elections in the state due to take place along with the Lok Sabha elections in 2019.

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