After the fall of the Congress-Janata Dal (Secular) government in Karnataka, the BJP hoped that the Congress government in Madhya Pradesh would also fall, given its slender majority in the state Assembly. But the party’s Operation Kamal – the mission to ‘convince’ rival parties’ MLAs to switch sides – appears to have hit a roadblock.
In fact, the Congress is said to have carried out a reverse Operation Kamal by securing the support of two BJP MLAs – Sharad Kol and Narayan Tripathi.
After voting with the Congress on a crucial legislation earlier this week, the two MLAs are said to have been taken to an “undisclosed location.”
Both the MLAs are said to be all set to shift to the Congress and are portraying it as their “ghar wapsi” or homecoming.
Tripathi, the MLA from Maihar in Satna district, was with the Samajwadi Party and Congress in the past, before he moved to the BJP four years ago.
Kol, who represents the ST reserved Beohari seat in Shahdol district, is a second generation Congress leader who shifted to the BJP last year. Chief Minister Kamal Nath is said to have invoked Kol’s family legacy to win him over.
Both the MLAs cited “development in their constituencies” as the reason for their shift.
Self-styled Sadhu ‘Computer Baba’ Namdeo Das Tyagi, who has a minister of state rank in the Madhya Pradesh government, has claimed that that four more BJP MLAs are in touch with him and could switch sides. Incidentally, Tyagi held an MoS rank even in the previous BJP government.
As a result of Tripathi and Kol’s ‘defection’, the BJP appears to have given up its plans of trying to bring down the Kamal Nath government, by initiating a no confidence motion, as of now. Leader of the Opposition Gopal Bhargava has said that the BJP has ‘no intention of bringing a No Confidence Motion.’
However, Bhargava claims that the Congress government “won’t last even a day” if Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah decide to bring it down.
The Numbers
The Congress has the support of 121 MLAs in the 230-member Assembly. This includes 114 MLAs of the Congress, two belonging to the BSP, one from the SP and four Independents.
The BJP has 109. If Tripathi and Kol resign from the BJP, the halfway mark in the House will go down to 114, giving the Congress-led alliance a lead of seven seats.
This would increase further if more BJP MLAs defect, as Computer Baba has claimed.
On the other hand, to bring down the government, the BJP would need the support of all four Independents as well as the BSP and SP MLAs, besides, of course, keeping its own house in order.
BJP’s Weakness in MP
The BJP in Madhya Pradesh is deeply faction-ridden, with former Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan, Leader of Opposition Gopal Bhargava, BJP general secretary Kailash Vijayvargiya and senior leaders Narottam Mishra and Bhupendra Singh not having effective coordination with each other.
With Chouhan no longer the chief minister, his rivals like Vijayvargiya and Prabhat Jha, who have prominent positions in the central BJP, are asserting themselves.
Party insiders disclose that while the BJP leadership would like to see the back of another Congress government, it is not particularly keen on giving Chouhan another term in office.
Congress’ Pre-Emptive Strike
Soon after the Congress-JD(S) lost the trust vote in Karnataka on Tuesday, 23 July, the Madhya Pradesh government went into damage control mode.
The very next day, it decided to go for a division of votes on the Criminal Law Madhya Pradesh (Amendment) Bill, with both Kol and Tripathi on its side. A cornered BJP walked out citing, ironically, that the Congress has disrespected its own leader Sheila Dikshit by not mourning her demise in the House.
According to reports, Congress MLA from Bhopal Central Arif Masood and Gwalior South MLA Praveen Pathak “took care” of the two BJP rebels after they had cross voted.
However, this doesn’t mean that the BJP’s plan has been thwarted for good. The Congress’ majority in Madhya Pradesh is even more slender than that of the Congress-JD(S) coalition in Karnataka.
In Karnataka, as many as 15 MLAs from the two parties resigned. In Madhya Pradesh, the BJP doesn’t even need Congress MLAs to shift, winning over four Independents, two BSP MLAs and one SP MLA would suffice.
But, as of now, the only Operation Kamal that is succeeding in Madhya Pradesh is in favour of chief minister Kamal Nath.
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