After over a week of uncertainty, the Congress decided on VD Satheesan's name as the next chief minister of Kerala. His elevation is significant because both the party high command and a majority of MLAs were in favour of KC Venugopal, the General Secretary (Organisation) of the Congress. The other leader in the reckoning was Ramesh Chennithala, who is senior to both Satheesan and Venugopal, with an electoral career that began 44 years ago.
Both Venugopal and Satheesan struck a positive note after the decision.
"The High Command would have looked into all aspects before taking a decision. I welcome it as a loyal party worker. I will now work towards implementing the decision," Venugopal said, as quoted by the Indian Express.
Satheesan described both Venugopal and Chennithala as his "seniors" and leaders who "contribute greatly to the UDF's win in the elections.
So what worked in favour of Satheesan?
How did the high command arrive at this decision?
Took Over Congress at its Lowest
VD Satheesan became Kerala's Leader of the Opposition at a time when the Congress-led United Democratic Front was at its lowest ebb. By winning a second consecutive term, the Left Democratic Front under Pinarayi Vijayan had beaten Kerala's track record of voting out the incumbent.
The Congress was facing a crisis of leadership and a crisis of credibility. The tallest leader of the party in Kerala, former CM Oommen Chandy, had been shifted to the Centre as General Secretary. He passed away in 2023. The BJP was trying to expand in the state, targeting the Congress' traditional bases among Nair and Christian voters.
The Kerala Congress (Mani) had shifted to the LDF in 2020. After the 2021 loss, there was even speculation that if the BJP becomes even stronger in the state, the Congress' biggest ally Indian Union Muslim League, could shift to the LDF.
As Leader of the Opposition, Satheesan emphasised on "Team UDF". He didn't present himself as a leader of a faction in the Congress or even as a purely Congress leader. He focused on being effective as the leader of the Opposition, who in Kerala has traditionally been seen as the CM-in-waiting.
Be it unemployment and institutionalised corruption or the Sabarimala Gold Theft case, Satheesan took on the Pinarayi Vijayan government over issues and backed it up with street protests and regular media bites. His speeches in the Assembly were always backed by data and research.
What made his interventions stand out was the fact that he focused on offering policy solutions and a vision. For instance, his comments in English on holding the bureaucracy accountable went viral even beyond Kerala.
Satheesan helped put the LDF government on the back foot, restored trust in the UDF as an alliance and prevented anyone else from hijacking the Opposition space.
The perception that a concentration of power was taking place at the hands of CM Vijayan and his loyalists even helped Satheesan win over some erstwhile Left supporters.
His defence of the Indian Union Muslim League over the dog-whistle attacks by CM Vijayan further helped strengthen the alliance and was one of the reasons why the IUML openly came out in his support.
Yatra and its Impact
Satheesan’s attacks on the Vijayan government weren't restricted to the Assembly or the media but extended to regular programmes at the district level. His month-long UDF Puthuyuga (New Era) Yatra on the eve of the Assembly elections created the momentum for the massive UDF win.
One aspect that stood out about the Yatra was that the alleged failures of the LDF government were only one part of the narrative. It focused greatly on offering policy solutions and laying down a vision for "New Kerala".
The Yatra is crucial to understanding Satheesan's success. It created organic acceptability for him among UDF workers and supporters.
So after the elections, the Congress high command had to take the view of party workers and supporters into account, despite a majority of MLAs voicing support for KC Venugopal
How Did the High Command Decide?
Had it been left to the MLAs, the decision would have gone in favour of Venugopal days ago. However, to the Congress High Command's credit, they broadened the consultations for choosing the CM and took their time to decide. The party leadership, sought the views of former Pradesh Congress chiefs like VM Sudheeran and K Muraleedharan as well as party functionaries at the state level.
The view from party cadres and the party's internal surveys overhwhelmingly favoured Satheesan, due to his consistent work on the ground in building a narrative against the LDF government.
The high command decided to go with the wishes of the party workers in one of the few states where the Congress has a strong and vibrant cadre base on the ground.
Satheesan's elevation has a message for political aspirants, especially in the Congress. The establishment may have had its preferences. The arithmetic within the system may have appeared to favour others. Yet, what ultimately prevailed was sustained political capital and organic acceptability earned through groundwork.
The party leadership eventually went with the views of its workers.