The Kerala chief minister deadlock in the Congress is about to end. The final decision is likely either on the evening of 13 May or on 14 May. As the Kerala Pradesh Congress chief Sunny Joseph quipped citing papal imagery, "white smoke will be seen soon".
However, whoever the Congress chooses between KC Venugopal, VD Satheesan and Ramesh Chennithala - it won't be an easy choice.
Why are the Stakes so High?
Politics in Kerala since 1980 has revolved around three Communist and three Congress leaders: CPI-M's EK Nayanar, VS Achuthanandan and Pinarayi Vijayan and Congress' K Karunakaran, AK Antony and Oommen Chandy.
Kerala is not like Tamil Nadu or Andhra Pradesh, where there are strong regional parties with a clear leadership. Leaders here don't have personality cults in Kerala. Here the leader is always "first among equals". But that doesn't mean the top position has been a revolving door. In both Congress and CPI-M, it was always clear who the first among equals is at any given point of time.
The only exception to this was the feud between the Karunakaran ('I' Group) and Antony ('A' Group) factions in the Congress , which eventually ended with the latter group becoming dominant under Oommen Chandy.
If Oommen Chandy was still alive, there would have been no deadlock. He would either have been the unquestioned choice or he would have ensured there is consensus on someone else.
So as the Congress sits down to choose its next CM, this background becomes important for two reasons.
First, the party isn't just choosing a person to run the state for the next five years. It is choosing someone who can ideally dominate Kerala politics for the next 10-15 years.
Second, if the party takes a wrong decision, it risks going back to the era of factionalism. The party could still manage it back then because it was in power at the Centre. It had more carrots to give and a far more effective stick. But if there is a schism now, it will weaken the party in what is perhaps its strongest state at the moment.
What is the Precedent?
The Congress CM in Kerala has always been from among the MLAs. The state also has had an informal demarcation between state and central politics. The Congress Legislative Party leader or the Pradesh Congress chief are always the most important faces of the party. They are the ones who interact with cadres and functionaries the most. The media projects the CLP leader as the face of the party. When in Opposition, the Leader of Opposition is seen as the default CM face. It was Oommen Chandy when VS Achuthanandan was CM, Chennithala in Pinarayi Vijayan's first term and VD Satheesan in his second term.
KC Venugopal is at a disadvantage here. He has been in the Centre since 2009. Even though he has kept in touch with state politics, he is seen as a central leader. Hence the reaction from a section of the party rank and file against his name.
What Works in Favour of Venugopal?
Venugopal has been the Congress' General Secretary (Organisation) since 2018. This is the second most important post in the party after the party president (in the absence of a vice-president). He is known to be close to both Rahul Gandhi and Mallikarjun Kharge.
However, it would be simplistic to present Venugopal as a parachute candidate sent by the high command. He has the support of a majority of the party MLAs. Now, his critics are making the case that he chose the candidates and therefore has their support. But even if that is so, MLAs support is a factor that can't be ignored. Conversely, it won't be easy to go with a CM face who is being opposed by a majority of MLAs.
Venugopal's supporters also allege that Satheesan "overplayed his hand" by making the election campaign "too centered around his personality". Sources say that this approach of Satheesan became clear even during meetings of the Central Election Committee, leading to friction with the central leadership.
The manner in which his supporters have been building up pressure for him after the results, has also not gone down well with the high command.
The IUML's public support for Satheesan is also being seen in this light, even though League leaders say that this was just a reflection of public mood.
What About Ramesh Chennithala?
Chennithala has spent considerable time both at the Centre and the state and his senior to both KC Venugopal and VD Satheesan. He has just won a sixth term from Haripad Assembly seat in Alappuzha, which happens to be Venugopal's Lok Sabha seat.
His supporters are also said to have been more restrained after the results.
However, Chennithala has two disadvantages.
The Congress has already lost one election when he was its de-factor CM face - in 2021. This was supposed to be an election the Congress-led UDF should have won, given Kerala's pattern of voting out incumbent governments. However, the Left under Pinarayi Vijayan won an unprecedented second term in a row. For many, that was Chennithala's moment that has now passed.
The second disadvantage is that Chennithala is seen as essentially a Nair leader. Satheesan and Venugopal also belong to the same community. But Chennithala has very close links to the Nair Service Society. Satheesan, in comparison, has a broader appeal.
The Big Picture
In the end, the decision comes down to the KC Venugopal question: how far is the Congress high command willing to go to push for him? And if eventually decide against him, it doesn't necessarily mean Satheesan is the natural choice. The party may even go for a consensus candidate as Venugopal may want to have a say if he isn't made CM.
Making Venugopal CM would lead to two bypolls - one for his Lok Sabha seat and the other to bring him to the Kerala Assembly. Then the party would have to look for a replacement for the General Secretary (Organisation) post, someone whom Mallikarjun Kharge and Rahul Gandhi trust and will be able to handle tricky organisational matters.