India Today Exit Polls Predict a Hung Assembly in Karnataka

Indi Today exit polls suggest that BJP’s vote share will improve but they will not dislodge the Congress government.

2 min read
The Karnataka Assembly elections will be held on 12 May. 

As the fight for the Karnataka Assembly election heats up, India Today Group’s Karvy Insights opinion poll has predicted a hung assembly in the state. However, it has suggested that the Congress will emerge as the single largest party.

The poll was conducted across all the 224 constituencies with a sample of 27,919 respondents.

The exit polls in the South Indian state that goes to vote on 12 May shows that the BJP’s vote share is likely to go up but not enough to dislodge the current Congress government.

The poll trend shows that out of the sample of 27, 919 interviews conducted, 35 percent people will vote for BJP.

In the previous Assembly elections (2013), BJP’s vote share was 20 percent. The Karnataka Janata Paksha of Padmanabha Prasanna Kumar and BS Yeddyurappa banked 10 percent while the Badavara Shramikara Raithara Congress Party (BSRCP) of B Sriramulu polled 3 percent – taking the total vote share of the BJP in the state to 33 percent.

However, the party suffered a set back due to the exit of its leaders like BS Yeddyurappa and B Sriramulu in 2013.

The same year, the Congress secured a vote share of 37 percent winning 122 seats in the State elections.

The Karvy Insights opinion poll shows that Congress is likely to retain its vote share but the number of seats is projected at 90-101 seats. According to the trends, BJP’s seat share is likely to improve from 50 (after merger of KJP and BSRCP) to 78-86.

The JD (S), which has entered into an alliance with Mayawati’s BSP for the Karnataka Assembly elections is likely to poll fewer votes as compared to 2013, according to the opinion poll. The JD (S)- BSP duo is projected to secure 19 percent of votes in the Karnataka Assembly elections.

JD (S) had secured 40 seats in 2013 and is now expected to win 34-43 seats. 

According to the opinion poll, 45 percent of respondents wanted to give another chance to the Siddharamaiah government and the responses are coming from a wide spectrum of caste and religious groups in Karnataka.

44 percent of Hindus while 65 percent of Muslims wanted the Siddaramaiah government back. 

India Today’s Karvy Insight’s opinion poll was conducted between 17 March and 5 April which showed that a 53 percnt of Dalits favoured the Congress.

However, in case of a coalition government, 39 percent respondents wanted to see JD (S) allying with the Congress while 29 percent were of the opinion that JD (S) should ally with the BJP.

The election results will be declared on 15 May and the current Chief Minister Siddaramaiah’s tenure will expire on 24 May.

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