Rewind to 2014. In the run up to the Lok Sabha elections, BJP launched an aggressive campaign to woo dalit voters. They went door-to-door, distributed campaign material designed exclusively for the dalits and made tall promises of inclusion in India’s growth story.
Dalits comprise 17 percent of India’s population and more than 50 percent of this vote is divided between various regional parties. Like the BSP wrested the dalit vote from the Congress, the BJP knew that the dalit vote would be crucial in the final count and won them over in 2014.
The BJP’s Dalit Campaign
1. The Printing Press
There was a printing press dedicated to printing posters of dalit icons like Kanshi Ram and Bhimrao Ambedkar. dalit literature and pamphlets were being designed to target the young aspirational dalit voter. The campaign material focussed on the atrocities committed on the dalits by the UPA government. It made promises to include dalits in India’s growth story. The BJP talked about how an OBC prime minister would work for the justice and dignity of the section. From promising setting up of a judicial commission to gauge the economic position of dalits in the country to filling all vacant positions for SCs in government offices, the BJP left nothing to chance.
2. The Grassroots Campaign
BJP workers on the ground told me at the time, that the instructions from the top were very clear – to tell OBC voters that Modi was the answer. The results I saw in the Medhki village on the outskirts of Jhansi. I went to met Kunjilal’s family with whom Rahul Gandhi had a meal with while campaigning in the region. While Kunjilal is an ardent Congress supporter, others in his village joked that had the Gandhi scion announced his arrival in advance, maybe the road would have got built. They said they would vote for Modi and they did.
3. The Right Alliances
The BJP made the right kind of alliances to propel its campaign. For example, the alliance with Lok Jan Shakti party (LJP) in Bihar brought dalit leaders like Ram Vilas Paswan to the fore and helped the party build a pro-dalit image. In April 2014, in a conversation with Uma Bharti, the party’s candidate from Jhansi, she told me that while the party’s strategy was not to contest this election on caste lines, Modi’s OBC status has helped. People have ‘blind faith’ in him, this election is about what they need, she said, sitting on the footsteps of temple in Jhansi.
4. The Result
The BJP made huge gains at the expense of the Congress and the BSP. In states like Rajasthan and Gujarat, the Congress lost its dalit voters to the BJP and in Uttar Pradesh, the loser was Mayawati.
The Road to Delhi Is Via Uttar Pradesh
The road to Delhi is via Uttar Pradesh. The thumb rule of the number game. The BJP had done the math.
While 17 percent of the county’s voters came from the dalit community, 20 percent of the all-important Uttar Pradesh voters were dalit and loyal to Mayawati. The BJP over a period of time made concerted and coordinated inroads into the interiors of UP to include dalits in its fold.
The result of the BJP’s campaign is here for everyone to see. Modi’s dalit blitzkrieg routed Mayawati’s elephants. The BSP which won 20 seats in the 2009 Lok Sabha elections drew a blank in 2014. While election commission data stated that the BSP came second in 33 of UP’s 80 constituencies, Mayawati knew that not only the dalits, but even the Muslims had betrayed her.
Why the BJP Is In Damage Control Mode
As Amitabh Tiwari and Subhash Chandra wrote for The Quint:
The dalits account for 20 percent of the population in electorally important Uttar Pradesh and 30 percent in Punjab. Both these states go to polls in 2017. The BJP has been under constant pressure since January after the suicide of dalit student Rohith Vemula. Dayashankar Singh’s comment on Mayawati and alleged atrocities on dalits by cow vigilante groups is leading to a perception that the BJP is anti-dalit.
After all that, if the BJP were to lose out on even 2-3 percent of its dalit vote share, in a tight contest, it could cost them dearly.