The days of 74-year-old Anandiben Patel as the Chief Minister of Gujarat seem numbered.
For seven years between 2007 and 2014, Patel held powerful portfolios in the state government, then headed by Narendra Modi, now Prime Minister of India. Her responsibilities included roads, building, revenue, urban development and capital projects.
On May 22, 2014, after it became clear that Modi would shift to New Delhi as PM, he hand-picked Patel to take his place at the corner office in Swarnim Sankul, the new secretariat building in Gandhinagar.
Her term in office has been rocky. Modi’s tenure in Gujarat
was marked by centralisation of power in the chief minister’s office (CMO). All
major decisions were routed through the bureaucracy to the CMO and back.
Uneasy lies the Head
- Anandiben Patel, handpicked by Narendra Modi to succeed him
as Gujarat CM, is in a political hot soup.
- Three mainstream newspapers have published stories that
indicate her daughter Anar and son Shwetank have emerged as parallel power centres.
- There are suggestions that companies, with which Anar is
associated, benefitted in securing 400 acres of land close to the Gir forest.
- Anandiben’s problems originate from below par administration
and the mishandling of the Patidar agitation.
- With her hold on administration weakening, speculations are
rife that Gujarat may see a change of guard.
- The names of three probable successors – Nitinbhai Patel,
Bhupendrasinh Chudasama and Saurabh Patel – are doing the rounds.
- Significantly, Saurabh Patel is the son-in-law of Ramniklal
Ambani, the elder brother Dhirubhai Ambani.
Anandiben’s Travails
When Modi moved to Delhi, he took many of his most experienced officers with him. Anandiben was hobbled by a lack of administrative talent among colleagues and the rump of babudom she inherited.
Exactly 14 months after taking over, the Patidar (or Patel) agitation erupted in the state. Led by a 23-year old newbie called Hardik Patel, this well-off community demanded reservations in state-funded education, government jobs and so on. Patels have been the backbone of the BJP’s support in the state: a rebellion was bad news.
There were deeper problems: in 2013, a paper in The Economic and Political Weekly pointed out that more than 25 per cent of Gujarat’s growth was due to a clutch of oil refineries and private sector ports, which employed few locals.
Also read: Hardik Patel is Back, Writes to Gujarat CM Threatening Fresh Stir
Speculations on CM’s Fate
Yoginder Alagh showed that the real gains in Gujarat farming had come from the Sardar Sarovar Dam, commissioned in 1979. These gains had plateaued off by the early 2000s.
Anandiben could not solve all this overnight. But Hardik has been in jail off and on from September 2015. Government negotiators with Patidar leaders have returned empty-handed.
Unsurprisingly, from November 2015, Gujarati vernacular media is speculating about a change of power in Gandhinagar. On February 3, 2016 The Hindu ran a story headlined, ‘Dispel wrong impression about your childrens’ ‘role’, Modi tells Anandiben’.
Some BJP workers and bureaucracy have even started drawing comparisons between her government and that of Keshubhai Patel.The Hindu Article
It said that Modi was concerned about the impression that Anandiben’s daughter Anar and son Shwetank (Sanjay) had emerged as parallel power centres who “interfere in governance and influence decision making.”
Daughter-Son Factor
In February 5, The Economic Times, India’s largest financial newspaper led with a story headlined, ‘How business partners of Gujarat CM Anandiben’s daughter Anar Patel landed a good deal.’ This story details transactions of over 400 acres of prime land near the Gir forest to companies directly or indirectly linked to Anandiben’s daughter Anar, at throwaway prices.
Around five hours after this report hit news stands, ET’s rival Business Standard picked up the same story online, and in a rare instance, quoted extensively from it, with attribution to ET.
Clearly, the campaign to unseat Anandiben has travelled the 910-odd km from Gandhinagar to New Delhi. If Anandiben goes, who will likely succeed her?
One candidate is Nitinbhai Patel, MLA from Mehsana, who took up some portfolios vacated by Anandiben when she became CM. His assignments include health, medical education, roads and capital projects. A businessman, with interests in cotton, textiles and oil pressing, he could be in the race.
Other CM Candidates
Another is lawyer Bhupendrasinh Chudasama, who holds all portfolios related to education – from the primary level to technical training – as well as food, civil supplies and science and technology.
But the third – and most interesting – candidate by a long shot, is Saurabh Patel, 58. A four-time MLA, he holds the seat of Akota, part of the Lok Sabha seat of Vadodara, which was won by Narendra Modi in 2014.
The list of portfolios handled by Patel is impressive: Finance, mines and minerals, planning, tourism, aviation, employment – and energy and petrochemicals. The latter is revealing for a personal reason.
Saurabh Patel is the son-in-law of Ramniklal (or Ramnikbhai) Ambani, elder brother of Dhirubhai, founder of the giant Reliance conglomerate.
Reliance is India’s largest private sector oil and gas company; its giant refineries and petrochemical plants are in Jamnagar and other locations in Gujarat.
The Ambani Link
In the 1980s, Ramnikbhai scouted out Naroda, near Ahmedabad, as the ideal site for Reliance to set up its first textile plant. By the end of 1993, it was clear to Dhirubhai that he and sons Mukesh and Anil had to take over for Reliance’s next expansions.
The family also formalised a split of assets that saw Dhirubhai’s two brothers Ramnikbhai and Nathubhai give up their remaining executive roles in Reliance and concentrate on their own personal businesses outside. Although both remained on the board, it was made clear that their children were not in the line of succession….Hamish McDonald, in Ambani & Sons
Legend has it that Dhirubhai asked his brothers to name their price to exit; after each had done so, Dhirubhai paid them double their quotes. He wanted a graceful parting of ways.
If indeed, Saurabh Patel, Ramnikbhai’s jamai, and husband of Mukesh and Anil’s first cousin, does become the next chief minister of Gujarat, the intertwined histories of Indian business and politics history will come full circle.
(The writer is a Delhi-based senior journalist)
(At The Quint, we are answerable only to our audience. Play an active role in shaping our journalism by becoming a member. Because the truth is worth it.)