The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its ally, the Asom Gana Parishad, have won a massive victory in the recently concluded Guwahati Municipal Corporation elections, winning 58 wards out of 60. The BJP won 52 and AGP 6. The surprise element in the result was that the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) won one ward and secured a vote share of about 11 percent, emerging as number 3 in terms of both seats and vote share.
The AAP is showcasing this as proof of its emergence in Assam, after it opened its account during the recent civic polls in Tinsukia and Dhemaji in Upper Assam.
So what's the story behind the AAP's emergence in Guwahati?
Breakdown of Opposition Vote in Guwahati
The main factor is the lack of competitiveness of the Opposition in Guwahati politics.
Consider the results of the past two Assembly elections.
There are four seats in the Kamrup Metropolitan district
Jalukbari
Dispur
Gauhati East
Gauhati West
In all four seats, the BJP has been securing massive wins in the past two elections. In both 2021 and 2016, the party secured a vote share of close to 60 percent or above in all four seats and the Congress was at 25 percent or below in all four, except Gauhati West where it was at 25.72 percent in 2021.
In Jalukbari, represented by current chief minister Himanta Biswa Sarma, the victory margin in both the elections was over 50 percentage points.
Even in the 2019 and 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the Congress' vote share was below 30 percent in these four seats.
This means that for four elections in a row – 2014, 2016, 2019 and 2021 – the Congress had failed to give the BJP a proper fight in Guwahati.
Clearly, this lack of competitiveness may have pushed voters to look for other options or stay away from the elections altogether. It is important to note that the turnout fell from close to 75 percent in the Assembly polls in this area, to just 53 percent in the civic polls.
There doesn't seem to be any major change in the BJP-AGP's vote share between the Assembly elections and the civic polls; it remained at about 65-66 percent.
The real change appears to have taken place in the Opposition space, with the Congress' vote share falling from about 22 percent in the Assembly elections to about 14 percent in the civic polls.
Why AAP, not AJP?
The other interesting aspect is that it was the AAP that stood third and not the Asom Jatiya Parishad, which has been trying to emerge as an important regional player in Assam.
The AJP contested 24 seats compared to the AAP's 43 and secured 3.9 percent votes. It had secured about 5 percent votes in the four Kamrup metro seats in the 2021 Assembly polls.
Interestingly, both the AAP and AJP's winning candidates are Muslims.
It is not clear why the AAP did better than the AJP, despite the latter being a party from Assam.
It is possible that this is because the AJP has a more sizable presence in Upper Assam compared to Guwahati, and even within Upper Assam, it has more support in rural areas and smaller towns than big cities.
Guwahati, on the other hand, also has a sizable non-Assamese population, including Marwari, Bengali, and north Indian voters. Therefore, it is possible that those not keen on voting for the BJP or the Congress within this demographic may have preferred the AAP to the AJP.
What Does This Mean for Assam Politics?
It would be too early to consider the Guwahati result a proof of AAP's emergence as a major player in Assam politics or that of Congress' decline in the state.
What it does indicate is a churn within the Opposition space in the state.
The Congress seems to be weakening in Upper Assam and Guwahati in addition to its already weak position in Bodoland. However, it still has a strong presence in Lower Assam, Central Assam, and the Barak Valley and remains the main opposition force in the hill districts.
Assam CM Himanta Biswa Sarma.
(Photo: The Quint)
With the BJP becoming increasingly unchallenged in both Upper Assam and Guwahati, it has created a vacuum in the Opposition with voters upset with the BJP either staying away from voting or looking for new alternatives.
Besides the AJP and AAP, there are two other players that are also trying to occupy the Opposition space – Akhil Gogoi's Raijor Dal and the Trinamool Congress. With Ripun Bora and Sushmita Dev in its ranks, the TMC is trying to grow in the Brahmaputra and Barak Valleys.
If the Congress is unable to revive in these weak territories, smaller parties will continue to try and fill the vacuum.
What Does This Mean for AAP Nationally?
In some ways, the AAP's rise in Guwahati is a bit similar to its emergence in the Surat Municipal Corporation elections in 2021.
Though the AAP has invested much more in Gujarat than in Assam, the pattern is similar. In Surat too, the party did well mainly because the Congress had failed to challenge the BJP in the city for several years. In addition to this, the AAP also gained due to tactical voting by the Patidar community.
The examples of both Surat and Guwahati indicate that cities where Congress has consistently been failing to dislodge the BJP could become potential areas for the AAP's expansion. And its focus on civic issues through the Delhi model may help in local body elections.
To stem any possible emergence of the AAP, the Congress would need to enhance its competitiveness in big cities where it is directly up against the BJP.
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