Despite her frequent brush with the law, this is the third occasion in 14 years when the mercurial J Jayalalithaa has stunningly bounced back into Tamil Nadu’s often-charged politics, ready to assume the mantle of Chief Minister. And this time, with the Karnataka High Court acquitting her of all charges of corruption, Amma is in a much stronger position to reclaim the seat that her faithful lieutenant O Panneerselvam had kept warm in her absence.
Disqualified as an MLA after her conviction in the disproportionate assets case in September 2014, which forbade her to contest polls for 10 years, Jayalalithaa may now seek to stand for elections from any seat in Tamil Nadu, and regain her lost glory.
The acquittal, a thumping victory by all accounts, will also stand her in good stead as she and the All Indian Anna Dravida Munnetra Khazhagam (AIADMK) prepare for the assembly elections scheduled to be held exactly a year from now. In last summer’s Lok Sabha polls, the AIADMK secured all but one of the 39 parliamentary constituencies.
While that electoral momentum is not expected to die out anytime soon, the AIADMK would definitely sense an opportunity to strengthen its political grip over the state — given that the rival DMK has been put asunder, after supremo Karunanidhi’s family feud deepened, making him lose his iron-fist control over the party. The DMK has lost touch with young voters with Karunanidhi stubbornly sticking to the old politics of Tamil supremacy and caste.
Besides, an alliance with the Congress will be tough to stitch up because the Congress itself is deeply divided in Tamil Nadu. Congress president Sonia Gandhi has exhorted the party to put behind groupism and unite, but the schism in the party, marked by the departure of G K Vasan and the fight between state president E V K S Elangovan and P Chidambaram’s son Karthi, has weakened it considerably.
The Congress’s vote share, which was 14.4% and 15% after the 2004 and 2009 general elections respectively, plummeted to a meagre 4.3% — less than even that of the BJP’s. For the first time, the Congress, shunned by the DMK and no longer an influential party in Tamil Nadu’s muddled politics, failed to play any significant role in influencing the outcome of the election.
However, a revival of Jayalalithaa’s political fortunes, which took a hit when she was convicted in the Rs 66 crore disproportionate assets case by a special court in September last year, will be determined by how astutely the AIADMK is able to project the latest acquittal (an event that will undoubtedly reinvigorate party workers).
More importantly, today’s verdict will enable the AIADMK spin doctors to turn the corruption rhetoric against the DMK, which still remains to be caught up in the 2G scam quagmire. Karunanidhi’s refusal to acknowledge that the bickering between his two sons, M K Stalin and M K Alagiri has led to the party’s loss of face, is the major issue. Alagiri was expelled from the party last year on Karunanidhi’s diktat, but this has not helped in expanding the DMK’s base at all.
On her part, Jayalalithaa recognised the need to follow a development agenda, taking crucial steps to turn Tamil Nadu into an innovation hub and knowledge capital. Since the AIADMK took over the state’s governance, it has aimed at providing infrastructure and other development initiatives, including universal access to housing, water and sanitation, energy efficiency, transportation expansion, connectivity, health care, and enhanced focus on education. All this and more has spiked Tamil Nadu’s growth rate to more than 10%, making it the second largest state economy. Tamil Nadu’s economic success has become a model competing with Narendra Modi’s Gujarat.
The prosecuting authority may file an appeal in the Supreme Court to annul the acquittal. But it is unlikely that the apex court will entertain any such appeal. And even if it does, it is unlikely that it will overturn the Karntaka High Court’s order. As for Jayalalithaa, the challenge over the next one year will be to accelerate the development programme.
Development projects had been held up because Panneerselvam, in deference to the puratchi thalaivi (revolutionary leader), would not take decisions on important files. Once she takes over the CM’s chair again, Jayalalithaa must convene the budget session which had been postponed indefinitely and revive the administrative machinery that had stopped functioning since her conviction. Jaya has definitely more than one point to prove.
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