Gujarat Exit Polls: Past Record Points to Off-the-Mark Predictions

Here’s a look at what the difference has been between exit polls and the final results in the past three years.

As the frenzy around the Gujarat elections subsided, the exit poll predictions saw Thursday evening, 14 December, light up with much debate and anticipation on who will win the race.

Even as the Election Commission prepares to announce the results on 18 December, most exit polls have predicted that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is set to rule Gujarat for the fifth time. But, how far can these numbers be trusted?

A cursory glance at eight major state Assembly elections since 2014 shows that exit polls have been wrong more than 50 percent of the time.