In the 2016 presidential election between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton, Trump is estimated to have received only one in every five Indian American votes.
The Indian American community in the United States has consistently shown a preference for Democratic candidates, but the Republican party hopes to fare better in the presidential contest this November, thanks in part to the extravagant bonhomie that has repeatedly been on display between Donald Trump and Narendra Modi, the latest iteration of it currently underway during the US President’s two-day visit to India.
But how much can Trump’s overtures to Modi and vice-versa affect or influence the Indian American vote? Can the grand spectacle in India translate into any meaningful electoral gains for the incumbent US president? Let’s take a closer look.
In Modi’s Footsteps: Larger Than Life Event Abroad to Cultivate Larger Than Life Image Back Home
An Indian American voter in Virginia who did not wish to be named told The Quint, “When Modi created that spectacle in New York’s Madison Square Garden, it made people in India believe that the world is bowing down to him. Similarly, through the scale of the event in Ahmedabad and his welcome in India, Trump will be trying to sell the idea that he is acceptable all over the world. For example, he won’t get the reception that he is getting in India in a European country. Trump is using this gala to impress his own fanbase.”
Trump boasting to reporters in Washington that his roadshow in Ahmedabad would be attended by 7 million people shows the larger than life scale of the event, and by extension, a sense of his own popularity, that he was keen on impressing upon his American audience.
However, there is one key difference between how Modi has been able to leverage his appearances at the Madison Square Gardens and Wembleys of the world versus the challenge that Trump will face in relaying the same to his domestic constituency.
The difference is that when Modi went, all of the Indian media provided wall to wall, virtually non-stop coverage. But Trump’s visit may not even make front page news on a lot of American newspapers, and it has not got wall-to-wall coverage on TV either. So it’s much less of a spectacle for America.
As the Virginia voter we spoke to said, “For all you know, it’s mostly the comedy/late night shows that’ll devote the most time and coverage to his India visit.”
Core Issues Far Removed From India?
In a report on America’s National Public Radio (NPR), Tom Gjelten says, “Indian Americans, about half of whom are Hindus, are the second-largest immigrant group in the US after Mexicans. In 2016, fewer than 20% of Indian Americans supported Donald Trump, but Republicans think they can get a bigger share this year. One reason – Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is a big Trump fan.”
Speaking to NPR, Karthick Ramakrishnan, who directs the Asian American Voters Survey at the University of California, says that Indian American voters, including American Hindus, focus mostly on policy issues such as access to health care, ones that incline them more toward the Democrats.
Ramakrishnan adds, “My hunch is that there’s probably some movement towards President Trump but still overwhelming support for the Democratic Party and Democratic candidates as opposed to President Trump.”
Hindu Nationalism vs Identification With Other Immigrant Groups
Indian Americans largely vote Democratic and have been observed to identify with other immigrant groups, but can a rise in Hindu nationalism alter that alignment?
Ramakrishnan says, “Not only are they immigrants, but also, they are brown-skinned, often in minority religions and discriminated in society in various ways. So, yes, people could try to drive a wedge between Indian Americans and other immigrant communities, but the reality of racial discrimination in the United States makes it more difficult.”
Subir Basu, a 60-year-old businessman and a green card-holder based in Georgia, whose wife and son hold US citizenship, explains the crossroads the community finds itself in.
Speaking to The Quint, Basu says, “A lot of Hindu Indians who live here like Modi, including many who have become naturalised US citizens. I feel there are more Modi supporters among first-generation Indian immigrants who have naturalised, than among Indian Americans who were born and brought up in the US. Indian Americans born in USA are more indifferent to Indian politics.”
Basu owns a garments business and has been residing in the United States for more than two decades. On being asked whether the bonhomie between Trump and Modi has influenced how those around him situate themselves in the Democratic-Republican binary, Basu says, “A lot of foreign leaders don’t show the kind of affection for Trump that Modi does.”
He adds, “Look, all over the world, there has been a rise in anti-Muslim sentiment. Trump enforced a travel ban on several Muslim countries. There is an anti-Muslim sentiment growing among Indians too. Indian Americans may have voted for Democrats like Obama in their time, but to several Hindu Indian Americans, Trump does have a certain appeal, more so among those who were born in India and naturalised in the US.”
Indian Americans: Limited Electoral Influence?
According to census estimates, there may be as many as 400,000 more Indian Americans in the US in 2020 than there were four years ago, when Trump beat Hillary to clinch the presidency.
But an article published in November 2019, in the Economic and Political Weekly (EPW), argues that the community still has a limited influence on American politics, “At about 1% of the overall United States (US) population (of which approximately half are citizens, with fewer actually voting), Indian Americans do not constitute a voting group significant enough to influence elections in favour of the Republicans, especially given that the largest concentrations of Indian American voters live in heavily Democratic areas like California, Illinois, and the Northeast.”
‘Trump’s India Visit Won’t Affect How We Vote’
A 25-year-old millennial Indian American, who works at a restaurant in California and doesn’t wish to be named said that she had not been paying attention to news of Trump’s visit to India, or what Modi says about him. That view is echoed by a lot of young Indian Americans, according to those we spoke to.
She says, “Basically for me, I don’t care what Trump does or doesn't do with India, but he won’t have my vote regardless.” Incidentally, the Democratic party fares exceedingly well with younger voters, especially persons of colour.
In the midst of all these factors tugging at one another is the charm of the soft power offensive, being played by both sides of the presidential race.
The Appeal of Soft Power
As things stand, Vermont senator and self-proclaimed socialist Bernie Sanders holds an early lead in the race to become the Democratic nominee for this year’s presidential election.
After Sanders recently won the Nevada caucus in the race for the Democratic nomination, his social media accounts celebrated the feat in Bengali, Hindi and Punjabi, among other languages.
And it’s not a one-off phenomenon. His accounts regularly post updates in various Indian languages. Sanders’ outreach to Indian Americans is consistent with two things:
- His attempt to forge a multiracial coalition to secure the nomination and trump the Donald later this year
- The fact that Indian Americans have traditionally voted overwhelmingly Democratic.
Sanders’ soft power approach is therefore a means of tapping into both the points mentioned above.
But soft power outreaches are hardly unique to any one politician in the fray.
Trump referencing cricketing superstars Sachin Tendulkar and Virat Kohli, and iconic Bollywood films Dilwale Dulhaniya Le Jayenge and Sholay in his speech at Ahmedabad’s Motera Stadium is a similar effort at creating an emotional connect with Indians here, but more so, he hopes, with Indian Americans back home.
“All over the planet people take great joy in watching Bollywood films, bhangra, and classic films like DDLJ and Sholay. You cheer on great cricketers like Sachin Tendulkar and Virat Kohli.”US President Donald Trump at Motera, Ahmedabad
In his 2016 campaign too, Trump had released a video saying ‘Ab ki Baar Trump Sarkar’, a play on the popular ‘Ab ki Baar Modi Sarkar’ slogan used by the BJP leader in the run-up to the 2014 general election.
From Houston to Ahmedabad
On 22 September 2019, at the massive ‘Howdy Modi’ rally in Houston, when Modi said, “Ab ki baar, Trump sarkar”, he was criticised in some quarters for having virtually sounded an endorsement to Trump’s re-election bid, just a little over a year from when he would be on the ballot in November 2020.
Though Modi has not been as overt or explicit over the course of this visit (yet), the speculation about whether this public display of political affection between the two world leaders will tantamount to much domestically in the US will continue. Given the strong inclination of Indian American voters towards the Democrats, and how the factors mentioned above seem to be balancing each other out, it is difficult to foresee Trump gain spectacularly among the Indian Americans specifically.
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