Datia Bypoll Result: Congress Wins, Aazad Samaj Party Rises as BJP Faces Upper-Caste Warning

Won by the Congress' Kunwar Ghanshyam Singh, the bypoll in Madhya Pradesh's Datia was fought at several levels: between ideologies, between parties and even within parties. Located in the Gwalior-Chambal region, Datia, in many ways, typifies Madhya Pradesh politics. Political competition in Datia has mainly been between Brahmin or Thakur candidates of the BJP and the Congress, even though Scheduled Castes and OBCs put together form the overwhelming majority of the electorate. The seat has always had an Upper Caste MLA. However, within this elite competition, Datia has been an ideological battleground from its very first election in 1952. The first MLA from Datia was Shyam Sundar Shyam, a Gandhian freedom fighter who championed progressive and social justice-based politics in the 1950s, 1960s and 1970s at a time when the dominant figure in the region was first Jiwaji Rao Scindia and subsequently Vijaya Raje Scindia. Hindutva politics always had strong roots in Datia. Surya Deo Sharma, who was mentioned in the Mahatma Gandhi assassination case, won Datia in 1962 as an Independent. The chargesheet in the case mentioned Sharma as one of the persons who helped provide the gun to Nathuram Godse. Shyam won the seat in 1967, 1977 and 1980 while the Jan Sangh won in 1972. Shyam's son Rajendra Kumar Bharti took over the reins from him in the 1980s, winning the seat in 1985. However, he shared an uneven relationship with Madhavrao Scindia who had joined the Congress by then, breaking with his family's legacy. Bharti blamed Scindia for being denied a Congress ticket in 1993 and 1998. He won the seat on a Samajwadi Party ticket in 1998. Congress' tallest leader in Madhya Pradesh at that time was then CM Digvijaya Singh, who also hailed from the same Gwalior-Chambal region and favoured Kunwar Ghanshyam Singh in the seat. Ghanshyam Singh is a member of the erstwhile royal family of Datia which historically had a complex relationship with the Scindias. The 1990s also saw the emergence of a young Brahmin politician in Gwalior-Chambal who first won from Dabra but later made Datia his turf: Narottam Mishra. Over the years, Mishra also emerged as one of the loudest pro-Hindutva voices in MP politics.He won Datia in 2008, 2013 and 2018 but narrowly lost to Rajendra Bharti in 2023 despite a BJP wave in MP.'Chanakya' Wins Patliputra: 4 Ways Prashant Kishor's Bankipur Win is a Big DealThe election was in many ways fought under the shadow of Narottam Mishra and Rajendra Bharti. Both leaders tried to make matters difficult for their respective party candidates. In particular, BJP's Ashutosh Tiwari struggled trying to keep Mishra and his supporters in good humour while also trying to present himself as a fresh face with a new approach. The BJP trailed even in the area where Mishra wields the most influence. In the end, what seemed to have made the difference is the fact that the Congress' Kunwar Ghanshyam Singh has a sizable following of his own while the BJP candidate was relying almost entirely on the party's organisational strength and the state government' clout. State Congress chief Jitu Patwari thanked Samajwadi Party chief Akhilesh Yadav for their help in the bypoll. The SP helped the Congress consolidate Yadav and Muslim voters in the seat. However, there was another strand of politics that stood out in the election. The surprise performance in Datia was from Chandrashekhar Azad's Aazad Samaaj Party (Kanshi Ram), which secured 14 percent votes, standing third behind the Congress and the BJP. Overall, the vote share of the two traditional parties came down by seven percentage points each, which would give the impression that ASP damaged both equally. However, ground inputs indicate that the ASP gained more at the expense of the Congress than the BJP, especially among Dalit voters. Ahirwar Dalits are among the most numerous communities in the seat. The ASP had fielded a Yadav candidate as opposed to the Congress' Thakur candidate and BJP's Brahmin candidate. The Congress had to seek the help of Akhilesh Yadav to contain losses among Yadav voters. In a seat dominated by elite politics and Upper Caste politicians, the ASP's performance was an impressive pushback. Overall, it appears that the Congress lost Dalit votes to the ASP but gained Upper Caste votes from the BJP. Like Bankipur in Bihar, BJP lost Datia due to a sizable chunk of its Savarna votebank switching sides or merely staying away from voting. This isn't a rebellion yet, but it is a warning.Within MP, this is now the BJP's second straight loss in the Gwalior-Chambal region. In November 2024, it lost the bypoll to the Vijaypur seat in Sheopur district. Congress turncoat to the BJP and minister in Mohan Yadav's government, Ramnivas Rawat was defeated by Mukesh Malhotra, a turncoat from the BJP to the Congress. Former BJP minister Yashodhara Raje Scindia, who also hails from the Gwalior-Chambal region, said on X that there is a "need for introspection" in the party, after the Datia bypoll defeat. Above everything else, the Datia result or even Bankipur for that matter, showed the BJP that it cannot win purely based on the party symbol and organisation and that it can't take Upper Caste voters for granted any more. Community sentiment and local leaders cannot be ignored.For the Congress too, the rise of ASP is a warning signal. The ASP is on its way to occupying the space being left by a weakening BSP. The Congress had hoped to do that especially under Mallikarjun Kharge as party president.BSP's Internal Crisis Looms Large over the Future of Dalit Politics in UP

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Scindias, Hindutva, Social Justice: Why Datia Bypoll Result is More Than 1 Seat

Datia has historically been a seat of contestation between Hindutva and social justice-based politicis.

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Topics: Madhya Pradesh Election