May 4 was a mixed bag for the Congress party. The Congress-led UDF won a two-thirds majority in Kerala, for the first time in decades. It was trounced in Assam by the BJP. The more layered results for the Congress came from Tamil Nadu and West Bengal. Here are eight takeaways for the Congress from these results.
1. Politics of Tamil Nadu Upended
The Congress has been out of power in Tamil Nadu for about six decades and West Bengal for about five decades. In Tamil Nadu, the Congress was ousted by the DMK in 1967, which took such hegemonic control over the state's politics that its main challenge came from within: the AIADMK formed in the 1970s. Since then, the Congress has had little choice in the state except aligning with one or the other of the two parties as a junior partner.
However, with Vijay's TVK blowing away both the DMK and AIADMK, the political landscape of the state is likely to change, giving Congress a little more leverage than before. With Vijay falling short of a majority, there is a chance that he may have to reach out to the Congress for help.
What works for the Congress in Tamil Nadu is the fact that it is still seen as the main pole for anti-BJP politics at the national level. Also, Rahul Gandhi has consistently had a higher approval rating than the Congress as a party in Tamil Nadu. This compelled Stalin to keep him in good humour, constantly referring to Gandhi as his "brother", while not conceding any space to the party in the state.
If the Congress does align with Vijay, it would have a chance to rework the template under which it had been operating in Tamil Nadu.
2. A Major National Challenger Within Opposition Cut to Size
The defeat of Mamata Banerjee in West Bengal has brought an end to one of the major challenges Congress faced within the Opposition space. The Aam Aadmi Party's defeat in Delhi in 2025 was a similar development, though AAP remains a challenge to it nationally.
The TMC's entire national pitch was fundamentally based on its hold on power in West Bengal and the resources that come with it.
Another aspect is that the Congress' decline in West Bengal took place in three phases. First when it lost to the Left Front in the 1970s, then when Mamata Banerjee split from its ranks in the 1990s. And finaly in 2021, when the emergence of the BJP forced the Muslims of Murshidabad and Maldah to shift to the TMC.
With the Left decimated and TMC cut to size, the Congress can try to revive its fortunes in the state by using its status as the main anti-BJP force nationally. The same can be said for Odisha where the BJD under Naveen Patnaik was defeated in 2024.
However, this would be a difficult and long drawn process and it is not clear if the party is up to it. The TMC and BJD, too, are far from pushovers.
3. Existential Crisis in Assam
In contrast to the long-term potential for the Congress in West Bengal and Tamil Nadu, the party seems to be looking at an existential crisis in Assam. It suffered a massive drubbing with the BJP winning three-fourths of the seats in the state. A majority of the Congress' wins came from Muslim concentration seats. However, even in such seats it lost two to the AIUDF and one to the Trinamool Congress. One such seat was won by its ally Raijor Dal.
The defeat of Congress' main face in the state Gaurav Gogoi and the win of Raijor Dal chief Akhil Gogoi is also bad news for the Congress. The RD can eventually pitch itself as the main opposition in the state if the Congress continues in the path of decline.
4. Unity, Local Leadership Seals Kerala
Kerala was the best news for the Congress as it won its biggest victory in the state in decades. The decimation of the Left brought an end to another government led by a regional party. Kerala also showed how the party can achieve success by containing factionalism and empowering local leaders.
5. Increasing National Bipolarity
The defeat of the TMC in Bengal and Left in Kerala is part of a larger process of bipolarity that has been taking place nationally. This is in contrast to the period between 2014 to 2023 in which BJP seemed less effective against regional parties compared to the Congress. This has changed since then.
Between themselves, the BJP and Congress have defeated a large number of regional parties. The BJP facilitated splits in the Shiv Sena and NCP. It took the CM position away from the Janata Dal (United). It has defeated the Biju Janata Dal, Aam Aadmi Party and now the TMC. Earlier, it had defeated the Left in Tripura.
The Congress, on its part, defeated the Bharat Rashtra Samithi in Telangana and now Left in Kerala.
We might be moving to a polity whereby the Congress becomes undisputed in the Opposition space.
6. Weakening of IPAC
The political consultancy, the Indian Political Action Committee (IPAC), was working both DMK and TMC in the run-up to the polls. IPAC has been one of the major backers of regional parties against both the BJP and the Congress. IPAC and Congress have had a number of failed attempts at working together. Defeats in Tamil Nadu and West Bengal may weaken IPAC and adversely impact any attempt by the firm to prop up a regional leader as a challenger.
7. What Happened to Vote Chori?
In 2025, the Congress led by Rahul Gandhi launched a campaign against what they called "Vote Chori". It got traction in the run-up to the Bihar elections. However, the party didn't follow up on it during the Bihar elections. Vote Chori could have been a potent plank in the Bengal elections due to the voter deletions. However, the party didn't bring the issue up and it was largely left to the TMC and NGOs like SABAR to take it up.