From calling the demand for a caste census an "urban naxal thought" and a plan to "divide India", the Narendra Modi government has taken a complete U-Turn by announcing its decision to collect caste data as part of the next nationwide census. The announcement was made by Union Minister Ashwini Vaishnaw on 30 April.
The timing of the announcement is as surprising as the decision itself, because it comes in the middle of India's standoff with Pakistan following the Pahalgam Terror Attack.
So what explains the BJP's U-Turn? And why has the decision been taken now?
We will try to answer these questions in this piece. Key to understanding this is the chronology that shows how the BJP and Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh's position on the issue changed with time.
The Chronology
Here are some of the BJP government's and the RSS's public statements on the demand for a caste census. This indicates a gradual change in their position with time. It often involved taking two steps forward and one step backwards.
December 2021: Union Minister Nityanand Rai said that the government had "no plan to collect caste data during census".
October 2023: After a caste census was conducted by the Mahagathbandhan government in Bihar, PM Modi called it an attempt to "divide the country".
November 2023: Union Home Minister Amit Shah said that the BJP was "never opposed" to a caste census.
November-December 2023: RSS Prachar Pramukh Sunil Ambedkar said that a caste census can be carried out for the purpose of enumeration so long as it doesn't create divisions in society.
Around the same period, RSS carried out an outreach campaign aimed at "addressing social tensions" and "promoting unity" among Hindus.
However, in December 2023, RSS Vidarbha chief Shridhar Ghadge said in a meeting with BJP MLAs from the region that the RSS sees "only harm and no benefit" from caste census.
January 2024: Nitish Kumar, seen as the face of the caste census pitch, shifted from the Opposition alliance to the NDA. However, the Congress and its allies made it a major pitch for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.
April 2024: PM Modi said in an interview during the Lok Sabha campaign that Congress’ pitch for caste census is an ‘Urban Naxal’ thought.
September 2024: During an RSS conclave in Kerala, Prachar Pramukh Sunil Ambedkar said that RSS backs caste census for welfare purposes, but opposes its use for electoral politics.
September 2024: Union Home Minister Amit Shah said that issues like caste census will be addressed when the government announces the census.
By this time, a number of BJP allies like Janata Dal (United), Lok Janshakti Party and Telugu Desam Party had openly begun speaking out in support of a caste census.
April 2025: Modi government announces collection of caste data as part of the census exercise.
Why Did BJP Take a U-Turn?
The above chronology makes it clear that the RSS came around to the idea of a caste census before the BJP. It is not surprising that the final announcement was made soon after a meeting between RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat and PM Narendra Modi. It is important to understand that the RSS and BJP, though ideologically aligned, often differ in their priorities and strategy.
For RSS, the priority is unity and harmony within Hindu society. For this purpose, the Sangh has of late shown openness to engage with issues like caste inequality and the need for social justice. The RSS' strategy is that if issues exist, it is best if they are raised and addressed in ways that the Sangh can control.
On the other hand, the BJP's priorities are primarily electoral. Its opposition to a caste census - such as PM Modi's 'Urban Naxal' statement - was because the party didn't want its rivals such as the Congress and the social justice-based parties to gain political mileage. It also may not have wanted to upset its core constituency among Upper Caste voters in the run-up to the Lok Sabha elections.
It seems that three factors may have compelled it to take a decisive U-Turn.
First, the consistency of the Opposition in raising the caste census issue. Despite Nitish Kumar ditching the Opposition alliance, Congress leader Rahul Gandhi has been consistently demanding a caste census for well over a year now. Then, the Congress governments in Karnataka and Telangana have both gone ahead with the process of conducting their own caste surveys.
Second, feedback from the RSS. RSS has an extensive network of cadres across the country, giving it a solid feedback mechanism. The changing statements by the RSS on caste inequalities do indicate the Sangh's realisation that caste realities can't be wished away and need engagement. This seems to have been communicated to the BJP as well.
The RSS and BJP's strategy is that if such a census is inevitable, it is best if they get to shape how it takes place and how the categories are decided.
Third, Maharashtra and Haryana Assembly election results that were held after Supreme Court verdict on subcategorisation showed how BJP could mobilise lower OBCs and lower Dalits against dominant agrarian castes and relatively privileged Dalit sub-castes respectively. Due to this, the BJP is reasonably confident that it could use the caste census card to its advantage and weaken parties like BSP, SP and RJD who are dominated by relatively better of sub-castes.
What Explains the Timing?
There are two elements to this.
First, as per the 84th Constitutional Amendment, the exercise of delimitation of seats for the Lok Sabha and state Assemblies has to be conducted after 2026 based on the first Census after 2026. Now as per schedule this would have been done based on the 2031 Census but the 2021 Census did not happen initially due to the COVID-19 pandemic and subsequently the delay from the government's end.
So it is possible that the government will conduct the Census by 2026 or 2027 and then initiate the delimitation process based on that.
For the Census to happen by 2026-27, the government would have had to decide this year whether or not it would be collecting caste data. Refusing to do that would certainly have given a major plank to the Opposition ahead of the Assembly elections in Bihar. Hence, the decision now.
Second, the timing is significant as the announcement comes during India's ongoing standoff with Pakistan following the Pahalgam Terror Attack. The BJP's calculation probably was the timing would limit the Opposition's mileage from the issue. It would also contain any possible backlash from the BJP's privileged caste vote bank as they may not want to be seen protesting against the government at a time of a possible conflict with Pakistan.
In fact, this is consistent with PM Modi's style of decision making - taking big steps domestically even when there is an external threat looming. For instance, demonetisation was announced a little over a month after India's surgical strikes across the LOC in 2016, when tensions with Pakistan were still heightened.
(With inputs by Maseera Shaik)