Bypoll Result: AAP 2, 1 Each for BJP, Congress & TMC. 3 Sides to the Big Picture

The results to the by-elections in five Assembly constituencies in four different states have been on expected lines, except for one seat. These results are significant because they were first elections since the Pahalgam Terror Attack and Operation Sindoor. Since these were also the first set of elections since the Aam Aadmi Party's defeat in Delhi, they were particularly significant for the party. Here are the results at a glance.What do each of these results mean? What impact will they have on national politics?We will try and answer this question in this articleThis is perhaps the most important result in these set of bypolls, with Aam Aadmi Party's Gopal Italia winning the seat by over 17,000 votes. The seat had fallen vacant after AAP MLA Bhupendrabhai Bhayani, better known as Bhupat Bhayani, resigned and joined the BJP. BJP has traditionally dominated most bypolls held in Gujarat in the past few years and the party was confident of winning Visavadar. As it is the party had steamrolled the Opposition in the 2022 Assembly elections, it was further strengthened by the defection of a number of Opposition MLAs to its ranks. These aspects make the AAP's win and BJP's defeat particularly significant. It is also important that Italia has won by a bigger margin than the one AAP had in 2022. Located in the Junagadh district in the heart of Saurashtra, Visavadar is a bit of an anomaly in Gujarat. It is one of the few seats which the BJP has consistently failed to win. The last time the party won this seat was in 2007, when PM Narendra Modi won his second term as Chief Minister. The seat turned against the BJP after veteran Patidar leader and former CM Keshubhai Patel split away from the party and formed the Gujarat Parivartan Party.Even after Patel returned to the BJP fold, the seat eluded the party as the Congress won the bypoll that took place after his resignation and the 2017 Assembly elections. This was the first time in nearly three decades that the Congress had won the seat. In 2022, it was won by AAP. Visavadar is a predominantly rural constituency that is dominated by the Patidar community. The seat has traditionally elected Leuva Patidar candidates and Keshubhai Patel had remained the tallest leader from the community for decades. Gopal Italia is also a Leuva Patidar and was part of the Patidar reservation agitation. His win and BJP's defeat does indicate disenchantment against BJP among rural Patidars. This is particularly acute in Saurashtra due to agrarian woes and issue like inadequate water supply and lack of job opportunities. The result in Kadi in Mahesana district was on expected lines, with the BJP's Rajendra Chavda winning the seat by around 39,000 votes. The Congress stood second and AAP a distant third.The seat fell vacant following the demise of BJP MLA Karshan Solanki in February this year. The seat used to be represented by former Deputy CM Nitin Patel but it later became reserved for SCs. The seat has a mixed demography with Patidar, Dalit and OBC voters present in sizable numbers. Unlike Saurashtra, Patidar voters in Mahesana have remained with the BJP and the results are reflective of this. AAP securing less than 2 percent votes indicates that the party's rise in Gujarat hasn't been uniform. It has been greatly dependent on rural Patidar and Adivasi votes. Aryadan Shoukath, candidate of the Congress-led United Democratic Front, has won the seat, defeating his Left Democratic Front rival M Swaraj by a margin of around 11,000 votes. The seat fell vacant after LDF backed Independent PV Anvar quit the CPI-M led alliance and resigned as MLA. Anvar, too, contested the seat as an Independent backed by the Trinamool Congress but was a distant third, securing a little less than 20,000 votes. Nilambur has traditionally been a Congress seat, dominated by veteran leader Aryadan Mohammed. However, it was won by Anvar in 2016 and 2021. Shoukath, who has now won the seat, is the son of Aryadan Mohammed.Shoukath and Anvar are both from ideologically pro-Congress families. Nilambur is one of the few pockets in Kerala where the Congress and its ally, the Indian Union Muslim League, have differences on the ground. Despite Aryadam Mohammed's anti-IUML legacy, Shoukath and the League managed to bury their differences for this election. IUML had earlier supported PV Anvar's induction into the UDF and accused a section of the Congress leadership of mismanaging the negotiations. The win comes as a boost to the UDF ahead of the 2026 Assembly elections. The biggest blow here isn't to the LDF but to PV Anvar, who competes in the same ideological space as Aryadan Shoukath. It is clear that the only way UDF can be defeated in the seat is if Anvar and the LDF come together and consolidate the non-Congress vote. However, Anvar's direct allegations against the LDF regime may make rapprochement difficult. The other option for Anvar would be to look for Anvar to join the UDF and look for a different seat. Read our detailed story on the politics of Nilambur. Nilambur Bypoll is About a Decades-Old Rivalry Among Muslim Leaders of MalabarAAP's Sanjeev Arora has won the seat, defeating Congress' Bharat Bhushan Ashu by a margin of little over than 10,000 votes. Arora, a prominent industrialist, was AAP's MP in the Rajya Sabha. The seat fell vacant following the death of AAP MLA Gurpreet Bassi Gogi in January this year. AAP's win isn't surprising. In Punjab, there has been a history of the incumbent party winning bypolls. The 2022 Sangrur Lok Sabha bypoll was an exception as it took place in the aftermath of the assassination of Sidhu Moose Wala. However, urban seats like Ludhiana West have tended to invariably vote for the party ruling in the state in bypolls.The result is important for AAP due to speculation that Arvind Kejriwal may enter the Rajya Sabha on Arora's vacancy.Though the loss may come as a disappointment, the Congress can draw solace from the fact that it managed to retain its vote share from the 2022 Assembly elections. However, the defeat seems to have triggered a churn, with Ashu resigning as Working President of the Punjab Congress soon after the results. This has triggered speculation on whether it's an attempt to push for the resignation of Punjab Congress chief Amarinder Singh Raja Warring or if Ashu could switch to the BJP. The BJP stood third in the seat, despite having led in the segment in the Lok Sabha elections. However, it managed to save its deposit and secured 22 percent votes.Even though it lost its deposit, the SAD has managed to retain its vote share from 2022. This is no small achievement as the party has gone through a major organisational crisis. Even within Ludhiana, it has been harmed due to the differences between Sukhbir Badal and Manpreet Ayali. At the very least, the result would indicate that the party isn't in some kind of free fall.Ludhiana West Bypoll: AAP Win Won't Surprise but Losing Would be Disaster for itTrinamool Congress candidate Alifa Ahmed has won from the Kaliganj assembly constituency in West Bengal's Nadia district. She defeated her BJP rival by 50,000 votes.The seat fell vacant due to the death of TMC MLA Naseeruddin Ahamed in February this year. Alifa is his daughter. The result is on expected lines as in West Bengal, too, ruling parties have tended to have an advantage in bypolls. The result is important only for one reason, as it is the first electoral battle since the Murshidabad communal violence. The violence doesn't seem to have had any major impact on the voting pattern. The bypolls were important mainly for three reasons. 1. Pahalgam Attack and Operation SindoorThey were the first electoral contest after important events like the Pahalgam Terror Attack, Operation Sindoor, Murshidabad violence and the Ahmedabad Plane Crash. The kind of surge in support that the BJP may have been expecting due to Operation Sindoor, doesn't seem to have happened. In fact inputs from the ground in all the seats, suggest that voting was largely shaped by local factors. 2. AAP's Prospects and Kejriwal's Possible Entry in ParliamentThe wins in Ludhiana West and, more so, Visavadar are important from the perspective of AAP. This is the party's first major electoral challenge following its defeat in the Delhi Assembly elections earlier this year. AAP convenor Arvind Kejriwal actively campaigned in both the seats and the party's prestige was at stake. The wins would help AAP convince its supporters that its national expansion plans will continue despite the setback in Delhi. It would become all the mor important if it leads to Kejriwal entering Parliament. 3. Assembly elections: Two out of five bypolls - Kaliganj and Nilambur - were in states where Assembly elections are due in the summer of 2026, West Bengal and Kerala, respectively. There are limits to which one can make inferences about the Assembly polls based on these results. The main parties by and large secured votes as per their respective bases in the seat. Both Kaliganj and Nilambur also happen to be seats with a sizable presence of Muslims. The results indicate a preference towards TMC in West Bengal and UDF in Kerala, with Left not succeeding in making significant inroads.

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Bypoll Result: AAP 2, 1 Each for BJP, Congress & TMC. 3 Sides to the Big Picture

The bypoll results are important due to three main reasons.

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