Bihar Elections: Why So Much Hullabaloo?

Elections in Bihar are finally over. Will the outcome have a significant impact on politics outside the state?

The month long electoral tamasha in Bihar is over, finally. Tamasha, because you witnessed theatrics on an unprecedented scale. You had a hero, an actor in a parallel role, a comedian, an actress in a minor role and a huge assembly of supporting cast, all vying to vociferously register their presence. Hopefully, the November 8 results will be less raucous.

For reasons that defy both sense and sensibility, this Bihar election has been made out to be a game changer for India’s political future. It is being argued that if BJP loses, PM Modi’s standing within the party and as a national leader will suffer a huge setback, he will face a resurgent opposition to thwart his attempts at ushering in economic, agrarian and other reforms and his party’s chances of winning elections in West Bengal, UP and Assam in the coming months will be adversely affected.

On the other hand, if BJP wins, the party will become more aggressive and determined to convert India into a nation of religious and ideological bigots, crony capitalists and fascists (whatever that means) and the political consensus to build a modern and tolerant nation will be permanently out of reach.

Nothing can be more absurd. Actually, the media populated by garrulous party spokesmen, anchors behaving as khap sarpanchs and foul mouth politicians have been carried away by the noise that this election has generated. The truth lies elsewhere.

Thanks to Modi’s repeated and aggressive electoral pitches, leaders of all political parties were galvanised to work harder, speak shriller and promise the moon and stars to discerning voters. You wouldn’t imagine Nitish indulging in such an unprecedented poster war or campaigning so tirelessly, or Lalu working so laboriously if Modi was missing from the scene.

The other belief that a failed PM Modi will see the resurgence of a grand opposition alliance is nothing but a pipe dream. The purpose of opposing BJP alone cannot override the irreconcilable differences among the fractious opposition parties, each with disproportionate political ambitions and differing regional compulsions.

Similarly this election won’t have any impact on elections in West Bengal where Mamata Banerjee holds an unassailable position. And in UP and Assam, where SP, BSP and Congress are well entrenched, it will always be tough for a fresher BJP to make its presence felt decisively.

However, the recently concluded election in Bihar is different in many ways.

What Modi did was to create a doubt in the minds of voters about whether they should go by their traditional preferences based on considerations of caste, religion or fear of their security, or take a risk to bring about change. How far these doubts will work in his favour is anybody’s guess.

Unlike in the past, when their votes used to be taken for granted, this time voters kept mulling and took the final call only on the day of voting. No wonder, a sizeable section of backwards and scheduled castes who had earlier decided to give the BJP a clear majority had second thoughts following Mohan Bhagwat’s untimely views on reservation. Young voters across all castes were thus caught between the crossfire of caste loyalty and a desire to give Modi a chance.

Women voters, particularly the first timers in all communities, seemed to favour Modi but were not sure if they could withstand family pressure. Even 20 per cent of young Muslim voters who wanted to vote for Modi to see if he can meet their economic dreams, felt letdown by provocative and communal statements by a few Hindu leaders. The diehard Hindu supporters of the BJP in rural areas, on the other hand, were also unhappy over party leaders’ weak and confused response to beef parties, blackening of Kulkarni’s face, hounding of its workers over the Dadri incident etc.

These undecided voters are aware that the Nitish government will not last its full term, that Modi will not help the state progress economically if it has Nitish as Chief Minister. It is also not lost on them how chaos ruled the streets of Bihar under Lalu and how Nitish’s infallibility was compromised when he had to exit halfway through his second term.

Still, they are willing to give Nitish one last chance because they have tried and tested him before. This is not to say that they no longer have a lurking admiration for the Prime Minister and for his call for development in Bihar. Which way the fingers of the bulk of these undecided voters eventually moved to tap the button, will only be known on November 8. But one thing seems fairly certain - one of the two alliances will receive a clear verdict.

(The writer is a former Special Secretary, Cabinet Secretariat)