When all seven allies of Bihar’s Mahagathbandhan assembled in Patna on 23 October, the opweres projected unity. But the poster behind the dais told a different story: only Tejashwi Yadav’s face stared out at the cameras. By day’s end, the alliance had formally declared the 35-year-old RJD leader its chief ministerial face, with Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP) chief Mukesh Sahani as one of two deputy-CM hopefuls.
Behind the display of solidarity, however, lay weeks of deadlock, withdrawals, and overlapping candidates. In a coalition where arithmetic can decide survival, 2025’s Bihar election will test whether social engineering can overcome internal bickering.
Seat-Sharing Stalemate
The Mahagathbandhan—comprising RJD, Congress, CPI(ML), CPI, CPM, VIP and the little-known Indian Inquilab Party (IIP)—has fielded 255 candidates for 243 seats.
RJD: 143 seats
Congress: 61 seats
CPI(ML): 20 seats
CPI: 9 seats
CPM: 4 seats
VIP: 15 seats
IIP: 3 seats
Talks nearly collapsed earlier this month when the Congress demanded 70 seats, citing close losses in 2020, while Sahani insisted on at least 20. As tempers rose, Tejashwi Yadav flew to Delhi seeking intervention from Rahul Gandhi and Mallikarjun Kharge—neither granted him a meeting.
By mid-October, allies began announcing candidates unilaterally. It took Ashok Gehlot’s last-minute firefighting mission on 22 October to rescue the alliance. “Whatever confusion existed has been settled,” veteran journalist Praveen Bagi said. “But the cost is visible on the ground.”
Twelve ‘Friendly Fights’
Despite proclamations of unity, 12 constituencies will see two alliance partners contesting against each other—officially described as “strategic overlaps.”
Phase 1 (6 November):
Vaishali – RJD’s Ajay Kushwaha vs Congress’s Sanjeev Singh
Bihar Sharif – CPI’s Shiv Prakash Yadav vs Congress’s Umair Khan
Rajapakar – CPI’s Mohit Paswan vs Congress’s Pratima Kumari
Bachhwara – CPI’s Awadhesh Rai vs Congress’s Shiv Prakash Gareeb Das
Beldour – IIP’s Tanisha Chauhan vs Congress’s Mithilesh Nishad
Gaura Bauram (Darbhanga) – VIP’s Santosh Sahni vs RJD’s Afzal Ali
Phase 2 (11 November:
Narkatiaganj – RJD’s Deepak Yadav vs Congress’s Shashwat Kedar
Kahalgaon – RJD’s Rajneesh Bharti vs Congress’s Praveen Kushwaha
Sultanganj – RJD’s Chandan Singh vs Congress’s Lalan Yadav
Sikandra (SC) – RJD’s Uday Narayan Chaudhary vs Congress’s Vinod Chaudhary
Kargahar – CPI’s Mahendra Gupta vs Congress’s Santosh Mishra
Chainpur – RJD’s Brijkishore Bind vs VIP’s Govind Bind
CPI(ML) general secretary Dipankar Bhattacharya brushed off criticism: “A one-or-two percent overlap is tactical; some withdrawals will follow.” Gehlot echoed the tone, saying 5–10 “friendly fights” were “no big deal.”
Analysts disagree. “There is no friendly fight in politics,” said political analyst Amitabh Tiwari. “Each worker fights to win. Split votes on even 10–12 seats can erase your lead statewide. Last time, the Mahagathbandhan trailed the NDA by 15 seats—so every seat counts.”
RJD’s Controlled Reset
Tejashwi Yadav’s RJD has trimmed its veteran ranks. Of 70 sitting MLAs, 28 (40%) lost tickets, replaced by younger or local favourites. The rest—42 including Alok Mehta, Chandrashekhar, and Anita Devi, have been re-fielded.
New faces include Yuva RJD chief Rajesh Yadav from Dinara and Osama Shahabuddin, son of the late party strongman Mohammad Shahabuddin, from Raghunathpur. In Hasanpur, Tej Pratap Yadav makes way for Mala Pushpam; in Jehanabad, Suday Yadav moves to Kurtha.
The message, insiders say, is “performance over pedigree.”
In 2020, RJD contested 144 seats, winning 75 (52%). Its vote share jumped 5 points to 23%. But five fewer seats than 2015 kept it out of power. In the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, it won 4 of 23 constituencies with 22% votes, still Bihar’s highest for any single party.
Congress on the Backfoot
The Congress, contesting 61 seats (down from 70 in 2020) has re-nominated only 12 MLAs, including state president Rajesh Ram and Bhagalpur’s Ajit Sharma. Hussain Ijharul of Kishanganj was dropped; ex-AIMIM MLA Kamrul Huda now contests to retain Muslim support in Seemanchal.
Out of the 70 seats it fought last time, Congress lost 51 and won 19, though its vote share rose 3 points. In 2024, it won 3 of 9 Lok Sabha seats.
Yet this year it lost the deputy-CM slot to VIP. “That tells you the hierarchy,” said Praveen Bagi. “Congress once demanded 70 seats; it settled for 61 and no top post. Like 2010, it began with defiance and ended with surrender.”
Bagi added that the party missed a symbolic opportunity: “If it had projected Rajesh Ram from the Ravidasi community (5.25% of population) as deputy CM face, it could have gained among Dalit voters.”
The Numbers Behind Social Engineering
The Mahagathbandhan’s ticket distribution reads like a caste census.
RJD (143 seats)
Yadavs – 51
Muslims – 18
Kurmi/Kushwaha – 18
EBCs – 33
SCs – 19
Upper castes – 14
Vaishyas – 8
Women – 24 (total across categories)
By expanding beyond its Yadav-Muslim base, RJD hopes to dent Nitish Kumar’s Luv-Kush (Kurmi-Kushwaha) bloc, which together forms roughly 7% of Bihar’s population.
Congress (61 seats)
Upper Caste – 19
OBCs – 14
EBCs – 6
SCs – 10
Muslims – 10
The high share of upper-caste nominees signals an attempt to poach BJP’s urban-savarna vote. But it risks alienating OBC blocs that Rahul Gandhi’s national messaging now targets through pro-reservation rhetoric.
VIP (15 seats)
EBC – 8
Yadav – 3
Kurmi/Kushwaha – 1
Upper Caste – 2
SC – 1
Left Bloc (CPI/ML + CPI + CPM, 33 seats)
Koeri – 7
Yadav – 8
Vaishya – 2
Upper Caste – 3
Dalit – 10
IIP (3 seats) represents the Tanti-Tatwa (paan-making) community — 1.7% of Bihar’s population — recently removed from the SC list by the Supreme Court. By inducting IIP chief I.P. Gupta, Tejashwi is signalling outreach to EBC segments disillusioned with the NDA.
Why 'Friendly Fights' Matter
In Darbhanga’s Gaura Bauram, both RJD and VIP are fielding candidates. “That seat alone can cause ripples in six surrounding constituencies,” said Bagi. “Workers won’t cooperate, and rival campaigns confuse voters.”
Amitabh Tiwari explains the math: “Assume 1.5 lakh voters per seat. A split of even 3–4 thousand votes between alliance partners equals 2% of the total, enough to flip a close race. Multiply that by 10–12 seats, and you’ve handed the NDA a double-digit edge.”
Smaller Parties, Bigger Stakes
For Mukesh Sahani’s VIP, 2025 is an existential comeback. A former NDA ally, it won four seats in 2020, before three MLAs defected to the BJP and one died. Now, VIP is banking on EBC votes and Sahani’s image as ‘Son of Mallah’ (fisherfolk community ~5%). His brother Santosh contests Gaura Bauram, but RJD’s refusal to withdraw its candidate has turned it into a three-cornered battle.
Meanwhile, the Left Front is the only bloc to retain all its sitting MLAs from 2020 (16 total), banking on cadre-based campaigns in rural pockets like Arrah and Siwan.
The Congress' Dilemma
Beyond seat counts, Congress’s struggle is ideological. “In Bihar, it is still seen as a Bhumihar party,” notes analyst Manish Anand. “Rahul Gandhi talks about OBC empowerment and Mandal justice, but the state unit hasn’t changed its social profile.”
The party had hoped its August ‘Vote Adhikar Yatra’—a 1,300 km rally across 20 districts—would signal revival. Crowds were large, but when seat allocations arrived, Congress was again the junior partner.
“Congress has shrunk to a vote transferrer,” says Bagi. “They provide legitimacy to the coalition, not momentum.”
An Uneasy Unity
For now, the Mahagathbandhan projects confidence. “We’ve held a joint press conference and finalised our face,” Tejashwi told reporters, jabbing at the BJP: “The NDA hasn’t named a CM candidate yet.”
Ashok Gehlot added the provocation: “Our leader is Tejashwi Yadav. Who is theirs?”
But beneath the rhetoric, the coalition knows the numbers. If each ‘friendly’ contest bleeds 2% votes, and Congress fails to mobilise its urban base, the alliance could lose the margin it painfully closed in 2020.
Bihar votes in two phases — 6 and 11 November — with results on 14 November.
For now, the Grand Alliance appears united but uneasy — bound by arithmetic, divided by ambition.