Bigger Victory Margins, Gains in New Seats: Did Delimitation Help NDA Win Assam?

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has swept Assam for the third consecutive term, but this was the first state election held after the 2023 delimitation exercise which not only saw reconfiguring of borders but also abolition and creation of new Assembly and Parliamentary constituencies.BJP alone has won 82 seats as compared to 60 seats in 2021 Assembly elections. NDA has a whole as won 102 seats.BJP's ally Bodoland People's Front (BPF) has won 10 seats as compared to just four seats in 2021 (It was in alliance with the Congress then). Most of their victories are in seats impacted by the delimitation exercise. More on this later in this piece.The delimitation process shaped the seats in Assam by either dispersing and fragmenting Muslim-concentrated regions to spread out votes and including more tribal and mixed population in other seats for an upper hand ostensibly. These tactics are also known as 'gerrymandering' and 'cracking.'A little more context: Before the delimitation was carried out in 2023, BJP had explicitly committed to undertaking the exercise in its manifesto titled 'Atma Nirbhar Assam' to protect the political rights and interests of Assam's people, especially the indigenous communities.Let's look at some seats that were impacted by the delimitation exercise and how the ruling BJP has performed in these states to get a clearer picture. BJP’s Hat-Trick in Assam: What Worked for Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma?In Bhowanipur-Sorbhog (lower Assam), BJP's Ranjeet Kumar Dass has defeated Manoranjan Talukdar of Communist Party of India (Marxist) with a margin of over 39,000 votes. The only other CPI (M) leader who contested and lost this election was Bapuram Boro from Goreswar.Sorbhog as a separate constituency was abolished in the 2023 delimitation exercise and Talukdar had won the erstwhile Sorbhog seat in the 2021 Assembly elections with a margin of 10,200 votes.Hailakandi, is part of the administrative districts in the Barak Valley region in Southern Assam. This seat saw the reduction of one seat (Algapur) which was merged into another (Algapur–Katlicherra) in 2023. BJP's Milon Das has won with a margin of over 55,800 votes against Rahul Roy of Congress. In the last Assembly elections, Zakir Hussain Laskar of AIUDF had won the seat. Last time, AIUDF had won with a margin of 23,750 votes.Another example of how delimitation affected the seats can be seen from Barpeta (lower Assam).A Muslim-majority district, saw a reduction of two seats (from 8 to 6) after the 2023 delimitation. Its Jania seat was merged into Mandia seat and Sarukhetri seat's borders was redrawn and partly absorbed into Barpeta and Chenga constituencies. This time, Asom Gana Parishad's Dipak Kumar Das has won Barpeta seat with a massive margin of over 47,450 votes. In 2021, this seat was won by Congress' Abdur Rahim Ahmed with a margin of around 44,000 votes.While Jania had a Muslim population of around 85-90%, Sarukhetri had around 70-75% Muslim population.Meanwhile, Krishnendu Paul of the BJP won the Patharkandi seat by a margin of 46,700 votes. Last time, this seat was won by Paul but with a narrow margin of 4,400 votes.Assam: Gaurav Gogoi Loses His First Election in Jorhat to BJP's Hitendra GoswamiThe Election Commission, after the delimitation process was concluded, increased the number of constituencies reserved for Scheduled Tribes from 16 to 19 and the number of seats set aside for Scheduled Castes from 8 to 9. Case in point, Goalpara West seat was converted into an ST reserved seat in 2023.Pabitra Rabha of the BJP won the seat by over 39,900 votes against Markline Marak of Congress. In 2021, this seat was won by Congress' Abdur Rashin Mandal with a margin of 46,000 votes.Then comes the Tamulpur seat (lower Assam, Baksa-Bodoland region), which became an ST-reserved seat after delimitation. With a margin of over 26,700 votes, Biswajit Daimary won against Pramod Boro of UPPL (United People's Party Liberal).In the last elections, when it was a general seat, this seat was won by UPPL's Leho Ram Boro with a margin of around 32,000 votes.There were also seats such as the Gossaiganj seat (part of Bodoland region) which although did not see any status change or abolition as compared to the others but their boundary was restructured.BPF's Sabharam Basumatary has won the seat by a margin of 22,900 votes against JMM's candidate. In 2021, BPF candidate Majendra Narzary won with a margin of 10,300 votes.After the delimitation, Gossaigaon now consists parts of Hatidhura and Kachugaon blocks and with the boundary changes, there was a reduction in the electorate as well of almost 74,000 voters (from 1.87 lakh voters to 1.14 lakh voters post delimitation).Another example of the delimitation affect on ST reserved seats would be the Kokrajhar seat. Before the delimitation exercise, Kokrajhar was split into two ST-reserved seats: Kokrajhar East Assembly seat and Kokrajhar West Assembly seat. However, both of these were abolished, and a unified seat was created: Kokrajhar. This seat has been won by Sewli Mohilary of the Bodoland People's Front (BDF-BJP alliance) with a margin of 32,200 votes.In the last elections, Kokrajhar East was won by UPPL (an NDA ally then) with a margin of 20,000 votes and Kokrajhar West was won by BPF (not an NDA ally then) with a margin of over 12,000 votes.Following the 2023 delimitation, the Boko seat was reorganised into Boko-Chaygaon (ST), it is a seat in Kamrup district. This time, Raju Mesh of the BJP has won the seat with a margin of over 59,500 votes against Ramen Singh Rabha of Congress. But in 2021, Boko seat was won by Nandita Das of Congress with a margin of 52,000 votes.Another ST-reserved seat such as Udalguri was also won by the BPF's Rihon Daimari with over 27,500 votes defeating Dipen Boro of UPPL. In 2021, it was won by UPPL candidate Basumatary with a far narrower margin of 4,800 votes.But this time, UPPL was not in alliance with the BJP in this election. BJP brought in BPF as an ally in the Bodoland region.The Bodoland Region: Apart from Udalguri which was carved as an ST seat in the region, Bodoland gained four more seats after the delimitation exercise going up from 11 to 15. Some of these are:Baksa was created as an ST seat after the 2023 delimitation. BPF's Maneswar Brahma won with a margin of 49,000 votes against UPPL's candidate Rakesh Brahma. BPF's Rupam Chandra Roy won Baokhungri (ST) a newly created constituency in the Kokrajhar area by a margin of 23,700 votes.Another seat that was created as a result of the delimitation exercise was Manas (part of which was taken from Tamalpur, Barama and surrounding BTR region). BPF has also won this seat. Thaneswar Basumatary has received a victory with a margin of over 47,400 votes.Even outside Bodoland, BJP dominated ST seats like last time in areas such as Jonai, Majuli and Howraghat.Assam CM’s Claim About India & Bangladesh Having No Extradition Treaty Is FalseBJP and its allies like the BPF and AGP have won the larger share of the newly-created Assembly seats after the 2023 delimitation exercise.Another example of Muslim-majority areas being reduced is Bilasipara where the delimitation process merged Bilasipara West and Bilasipara East into one new seat. This falls in the Dhubri district. This time, Jibesh Roy of AGP won the seat with a margin of 2,600 votes.Then comes Rongkhang. This is a new ST-reserved seat in the Karbi Anglong district was bifurcated from former Baithalangso constituency. This seat has been won by BJP's Tuliram Ronghang with a margin of over 60,000 votes.Another such new seat is Amri in the Anglong district which has been won by BJP's Habbey Teron with a margin of over 23,900 votes.Bhergaon located in Udalguri district (Bodoland Territorial Region area) was another newly-created seat. This seat was formed by reorganizing areas primarily from the abolished Panery constituency, parts of surrounding seats like Mazbat and other areas in the Udalguri. This seat has also been won by Maheswar Baro of BPF with a margin of over 37,700 votes.It does not end here. Another region where BJP gained due to the delimitation exercise, was the Kamrup (Metro) district. Before delimitation, this district comprised of four assembly seats: Guwahati East, Guwahati West, Dispur and Jalukbari. However, after the delimitation process, by breaking erstwhile Guwahati West and another incorporating new parts of Guwahati East constituency, a new seat, New Guwahati, was formed. Guwahati East and West seats were abolished.These seats have an urban, Hindu-majority voter profile. Similarly, the new Dimoria seat emerged after breaking up Dispur seat.Now look at the results. Under the new structure, BJP won all these 5 seats in Kamrup (M):Dispur seat has been won by BJP's Pradyut Bordoloi with a margin of 49,600 votes. BJP's Diplu Ranjan Sarmah has won the New Guwahati seat with a margin of over 47,600 votes. Guwahati Central has been won by BJP's Vijay Kumar Gupta against Kunki Chowdhury of Assam Jatiya Parishad with a margin of 61,900 votes. Jalukbari: CM Sarma won comfortably with a margin of over 87,700 votes.Newly-created Dimoria seat (SC) was also won by Asom Gana Parishad's Dr Tapan Das with a margin of 65,000 votes.Another new seat, Bajali (lower Assam) was created out of parts of Barpeta district. Here too, NDA's ally, AGP's Dharmeswar Roy has won with a margin of over 24,400 votes.Similarly, Goreswar seat (lower Assam) was carved out of earlier Kamalpur and Rangia assembly seats. BJP's Victor Kumar Das has won the Goreswar seat with a margin of 68,900 votes.Located in Tinsukia district, Makum assembly seat was formed by taking portions from the earlier Tinsukia, Digboi, and Doomdooma assembly constituencies. BJP's Sanjoy Kishan has won the seat with a margin of 28,200 votes from this seat.Makum seat particularly includes areas around Makum town (known for its tea gardens and industrial belt). Significant parts, especially tea tribe-dominated areas, were shifted from the old Tinsukia seat into the new Makum seat.Rongonadi is located in Lakhimpur district (upper Assam). It was formed primarily by reorgansing and taking portions from the earlier Bihpuria, Naoboicha, and parts of Lakhimpur.BJP's Rishiraj Hazarika won the Rongonadi seat by a margin of over 19,600 votes.Boundaries of Bihpuria seat were re-drawn to include specific areas of Lakhimpur district. BJP's Bhupen Kumar Borah has won the seat with a margin of 8,200 votes. Last time, BJP's Dr Amiya Kumar Bhuyan had won with a margin of 10,000 votes.Meanwhile, a few of the other new seats were also won by Congress such as Srijangram and Pakabetbari. There have been a few exceptions as well such as the Algapur-Katlicherra and Chenga where the Opposition has stood out:Zubair Anam Mazumder of the Congress has won with a margin of over 1 lakh votes against Zakir Hussain Laskar of AGP. This seat was won by AIUDF with a margin of over 17,000 votes in 2021.Chenga constituency absorbed another seat (Sarukhetri) and its boundaries were redrawn during the delimitation process. Some parts were transferred to Dhubri constituency as well. Here, Congress' Abdur Rahim Ahmed has won by a margin of 87,300 votes. In 2021, AIUDF won the seat with over 51,000 votes.Apart from this, Congress has won in other seats such as Dhubri, Goalpara East, Samaguri, Karimganj North and South seats.

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Bigger Victory Margins, Gains in New Seats: Did Delimitation Help NDA Win Assam?

BJP has fared well in most of the ST reserved and the new seats created after the 2023 delimitation in the state.

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Topics: Assam Guwahati Himanta Biswa Sarma