Lok Sabha Elections 2024: How Delimitation Has Changed Equations for Every Political Party in Assam

While declaring its first list of candidates for the upcoming Lok Sabha elections, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) made a small error. It declared its candidates from Assam based on the old constituencies and not the newly drawn seats after delimitation. This error was symbolic of how parties in Assam are coming to terms with the post-delimitation political landscape. The 2024 Lok Sabha election is crucial as this is the first election to be held after the delimitation of Parliamentary and Assembly constituencies in Assam. While the number of parliamentary and assembly constituencies in Assam remains the same, 14 and 126 respectively, there have been major changes in terms of boundaries, demographic concentration, and local power equations. With the general elections of 2009, 2014, and 2019 and the Assam assembly election 2021 as the reference points, let’s look at the electoral possibilities for the major parties in the 14 seats to be contested in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), Congress, Asom Gana Parishad (AGP), and All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) are the major political parties in the state. If we look at the performance of the Congress in the state, there has been a decline in the number of seats over the past 3 general elections: 7 seats in 2009 with a vote share of 34.89 percent, 3 seats in 2014 with 29.90 percent vote share and 3 seats in 2019 with 35.79 percent vote share. 2019 was an improvement for INC in terms of vote share compared to the 2014 election. AIUDF begged 3 seats in 2014 and 1 in 2019. The Congress' gains in 2019 were mainly at the expense of the AIUDF. The BJP's influence has risen considerably since 2009. In 2009, BJP won 4 seats and its National Democratic Alliance (NDA) ally AGP won 1 seat. Together they garnered a vote share of 30.72 percent, BJP alone was 16.21 percent and the rest from AGP. BJP’s seat tally increased to 7 in 2014 and its vote share rose to 36.41 percent. AGP was not part of NDA that year. They contested 12 seats independently, won none and gathered only a minimal vote share in each.In the last Lok Sabha election in 2019, there was barely a 1 per cent vote share difference between BJP (36.41 percent ) and Congress (35.79 percent). However, in terms of seats, the BJP won 9, Congress 3, AIUDF 1 and Independent Naba Kumar Sarania won from Kokrajhar. 'A Sword Hanging Over Us…': Why Are Southern States Opposed to Delimitation?At present, the Congress has 3 members of parliament from Assam: Abdul Khaleque from Barpeta, Gaurav Gogoi from Kaliabor and Pradyot Bordoloi from Nagaon. All the 3 parliamentary constituencies have undergone massive changes due to delimitation. Kaliabor was the only constituency that the Congress was able to win for three consecutive terms despite strong BJP waves in 2014 and 2019. Former Assam CM Tarun Gogoi’s son Gaurav Gogoi won the seat in 2014 and 2019. The parliamentary constituency ceases to exist after delimitation.A new constituency - Kaziranga - has come into existence, which includes many of the areas that were in Kaliabor. However, four seats that used to be in Kaliabor - Dhing, Batadraba, Rupohihat, and Samaguri - have been included in the Nagaon constituency.Batadraba has been joined with Nagaon assembly seat to create a new seat known as Nagaon-Batadraba. Notably, these are constituencies where Congress was able to secure highest vote share and winning margin in the 2019 general election in the former Kaliabor parliamentary constituency. For instance, Congress secured 90.39 percent vote share in Dhing as opposed to 8.19 percent of the rival candidate from AGP.The case of Barpeta is similar. Three earlier assembly constituencies of Barpeta namely Jania, Baghbor and Chenga with 70-80 percent Muslim population have now been added to Dhubri seat. On the other hand, the constituencies newly added into Barpeta - like Nalbari and Bhowanipur-Sorbhog - have significant caste Assamese population, a vote base that tilts towards the BJP-AGP combine. Given the change, Barpeta won't be as easy for the non-BJP camp as it used to be. A possible vote split between Congress and AIUDF may even give the BJP an opening in the seat. The third constituency that the Congress won in 2019 was Nagaon, where Pradyot Bordoloi got elected with a margin of little over 1 percent. The seat had been won by BJP's Rajen Gohain in 2009 and 2014. The former Nagaon parliamentary constituency had 9 assembly constituencies and after delimitation, the number is 8.From the earlier segments, Jagiroad (SC), Laharighat, Morigaon, and Raha (SC), remain comparatively intact. Nagaon assembly constituency has now been joined with Batadraba which was earlier part of Kaliabor parliamentary constituency. Three more assembly constituencies of the former Kaliabor parliamentary constituency have been joined to Nagaon - Dhing, Rupoihat and Samaguri.All three areas have a comparatively higher concentration of Muslims. This change may make Nagaon a safer seat for the Congress compared to 2019 and Kaziranga more difficult.While seats like Barpeta, Dhubri, Kaziranga (erstwhile Kaliabor) and Nagaon have seen massive rearrangement, seats like Silchar, Sonitpur (erstwhile Tezpur), Diphu (erstwhile Autonomous District), Lakhimpur, Dibrugarh, and Jorhat haven't been changed much. According to Assam electoral roll 2024, Diphu is presently the parliamentary constituency with the fewest number of voters (around 9 lakhs) and Dhubri with the highest (around 26 lakhs).Silchar, however, has become a SC reserved seat from a general one.What Is Delimitation & What Does Women's Reservation Bill Have To Do With It?Guwahati (erstwhile Gauhati), Darrang-Udalguri (erstwhile Mangaldoi) and Sonitpur (erstwhile Tezpur) have been the strongest seats for the BJP in the last three elections. These seats remain strong for BJP even after delimitation. Out of 10 assembly constituencies under the Guwahati seat, 4 have BJP MLAs and 1 has AGP MLA (NDA ally). Out of 11 assembly constituencies under Darrang-Udalguri parliamentary constituency, 4 seats were won by BJP and 2 by UPPL (NDA ally). Sonitpur is even stronger for BJP with sitting MLAs in 8 out of 9 assembly constituencies and the remaining 1 under AGP. Thus for these seats, all equations seem to be in favour of BJP in 2024. Apart from these three seats, Diphu (erstwhile Autonomous District) parliamentary constituency can be another stronghold for BJP which has four MLAs out of six segments in the seat. The remaining two seats are newly formed and have a strong BJP presence.Jorhat, Dibrugarh, and Lakhimpur parliamentary seats have elected BJP MPs in the last two general elections. These 3 parliamentary constituencies after delimitation, respectively have about 70 percent , 80 percent , and 66 percent assembly seats under BJP and AGP MLAs and thus the chances are stronger for the NDA to win 2024. The newly formed Kaziranga parliamentary constituency which replaced erstwhile Kaliabor has become another BJP stronghold after delimitation as 9 out of 10 assembly constituencies are currently under sitting MLAs from BJP-AGP. Rahul Gandhi led the Bharat Jodo Nyay Yatra through 6 parliamentary constituencies in January 2024 - Jorhat, Lakhimpur, Sonitpur, Nagaon, Kaziranga, and Barpeta. Out of these, only Nagaon seems a strong seat for the Congress. In addition to these, non-BJP forces are competitive in Dhubri, Karimganj and Kokrajhar as well. Barpeta too could witness a strong contest. Dhubri has been the stronghold of AIUDF chief Badruddin Ajmal, who has won the seat for the last three terms. After delimitation, Dhubri parliamentary constituency has retained the earlier areas but added some new areas mostly from the former Barpeta constituency.Out of 11 assembly constituencies, AIUDF has 5 MLAs, Congress 3 and 3 are newly formed seats. The contest here will mostly be between the AIUDF and the Congress.Nagaon, after delimitation, has 8 assembly constituencies out of which Congress has 4 MLAs and AIUDF has 1. This could be a strong seat for the Congress. However, if votes get divided between Congress and AIUDF, it could help the NDA.Karimganj has elected MPs from three different parties in the last 3 general elections- BJP (2019), AIUDF (2014), and Congress (2009). After delimitation, the number of constituencies within Karimganj parliamentary constituency has been reduced to 6 instead of the earlier 8. Out of the 6, BJP, Congress and AIUDF have 2 seats each. Therefore, though there is possibility for non-BJP win, a three-front battle from these parties will leave BJP at an advantage.Independent MP from Kokrajhar for the last 2 terms, Naba Kumar Sarania alias Hira Sarania, has been an interesting figure in Assam politics.Once associated with the presently banned United Liberation Front of Assam (ULFA) as a commander, he won in 2014 with a substantial vote share. He was able to retain the seat in 2019 as well, though his vote share declined to 32.74 percent as compared to 51.82 percent in 2014. Naba Sarania formed his own party called Gana Suraksha Party and they have neither joined the INDIA bloc nor NDA yet. The Kokrajhar seat is ST reserved and the present MP is currently fighting a court battle regarding his ST identity. Earlier Kokrajhar parliamentary constituency had 10 assembly constituencies. It has been reduced to 9 after delimitation and only Gossaingaon and Bijni remain from the earlier names. The rest of the 7 are newly named or created.While the boundaries of a few parliamentary constituencies have been massively restructured in terms of demographic configuration as well as geographical extent, political equations have also changed for the major parties. There have been accusations that seats have been carved out in a way that it helps the BJP. Barpeta and Dhubri are the biggest examples of calculated and targeted change at the parliamentary constituency level. The present Barpeta MP Abdul Khaleque’s own assembly constituency Jania ceased to exist after delimitation, and was merged with Baghbor, now known as Mandia assembly constituency. It is now part of Dhubri parliament seat. The areas of influence of both Khaleque and Ajmal now lie in Dhubri. The seat is now likely to see a direct AIUDF vs Congress contest. “Places now part of Mandia and Chenga assembly constituencies which are only a few kilometres away from Barpeta town, are now part of Dhubri parliamentary constituency, which is around 250 kilometres away."Illias Hussain, political consultant from BarpetaThe present extent of the Dhubri parliamentary constituency is stretched almost 300 kilometres across both sides of the river Brahmaputra and it will take days if one wants to travel the whole constituency- he added. Delimitation hasn’t only impacted the Muslim population in terms of changing demographic boundaries and political equations but also impacted other population groups of the state. For instance, “in the present Sonitpur parliamentary seat, boundary changes have impacted Adivasi and Bodo dominated areas,” says Bhaskar Jyoti Nath, Congress leader from Dhekiajuli. Sorbhog assembly constituency, earlier part of Kokrajhar parliamentary constituency was a stronghold for CPI(M) historically and is currently represented by the MLA Manoranjan Talukdar from CPI(M). This is the only constituency won by a Left party in the 2021 election. After delimitation, it was merged with Bhowanipur to create a new constituency known as Bhowanipur-Sorbhog. With the changed boundaries and redefined power and population equations, it will be difficult for CPI(M) to retain its influence in upcoming elections. Delimitation has significantly reduced the electoral possibilities for AIUDF in terms of assembly seats.Instead of two earlier assembly seats of Bilasipara East and Bilasipara West under the Dhubri seat, both held by AIUDF, now there is only Bilasipara assembly constituency. Similarly, two assembly constituencies namely Algapur and Katlicherra under Karimganj parliamentary constituency, both with AIUDF MLAs, have now been combined. AIUDF had significant presence in Barpeta and Naoboicha assembly constituencies earlier. Now both are SC reserved.Similary, Abhayapuri North and Abhayapuri South under Barpeta parliamentary seat and Boko and Chaygaon under Guwahati parliamentary seat are examples where two strong Congress seats have been combined into 1 assembly constituency. Along with the major parties, other political forces like Raijor Dal, Assam Jatiya Parishad, and the Left parties are also gearing up for the Lok Sabha elections. However, the delimitation factor may be working in favour of the BJP. (Devyani Borkataki is an independent researcher and Probin Pegu is a political activist from Assam. This is an opinion article and the views expressed are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for them.

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How Delimitation Has Changed Equations for Every Political Party in Assam

The upcoming Lok Sabha elections will be the first election in Assam after the delimitation process.