Assam 2016 is essentially a battle between the fifteen-year-old incumbent Congress government and a post-2014-bolstered BJP. If the 2014 Lok Sabha election result is anything to go by, the BJP in Assam should be enthused and the Congress embattled.
However, in an exclusive conversation with The Quint, sitting in his balcony in New Delhi, Gaurav Gogoi, Congress MP and son of Assam Chief Minister, says that the hawa in Assam is very different from the perception in New Delhi. He claims that after the 2014 debacle, the Congress party is more battle-ready than ever before.
While the BJP became too ambitious after 2014, the defeat has only helped us put our house in order and plan in advance.
In 2014, the Congress was reduced to three seats in Assam – the vote share of the party was down by 10 percent. Last year, before the Bihar election, senior Congress leader Hemanta Biswa Sharma and nine sitting MLAs of the Congress crossed over to the BJP. So if it appears that the BJP has taken the initial lead in making inroads into the Congress bastion, then it also appears that the Congress is sailing in the last chance saloon. But Gogoi believes otherwise.
The internal factions within the Congress were on the rise since 2014, the government was distracted and the political base was confused. But post the 2014 results, it was Rahul Gandhi who decided that the CM is the undisputed leader in the state. Further, the exit of Hemanta Biswas prior to the Bihar elections helped us consolidate the Congress party.Gaurav Gogoi, Congress MP
Assam: Gogoi vs Modi?
So will this election in Assam be a war between Modi and the Gogois? Gogoi junior seems to suggest otherwise, calling it a battle between the two-year-old Modi government at the Centre versus fifteen years of Congress rule in the state.
This election is a fight between the two-year-old anti-poor, anti-farmer, anti-student, anti-pluralism rule of the Modi government versus fifteen years of peaceful, lawful and stable Congress rule in the state.
Gogoi Dismisses Opinion Polls
While Gogoi appears confident, the C-voter opinion poll (conducted before the BJP forged an alliance with the Asom Gana Parishad, AGP) seems to suggest that power will change hands in Assam. It predicts a 4 percent fall in the vote share of the Congress, from 68 seats currently, and predicts that the party will lose 34 seats in the 126-member assembly. The poll essentially suggests that if the AGP does well without splitting the anti-Congress vote then there could be a BJP-led government in the state. Gogoi is dismissive.
Sitting in Delhi, everyone predicted a BJP win in Bihar, look what happened. The BJP has been scrounging for alliances, but the Congress is confident to go in alone. People of Assam know that the AIUDF (All India United Democratic Front) cannot stop the communal the forces of the BJP, they need the Congress.
Unhappy with the BJP-AGP tie up, on 9 March the Congress got a shot in the arm when two sitting MLAs from the AIUDF and two senior BJP leaders joined the Congress. In addition, Gogoi claims that student leaders from the All Bodo Students Union and the Assam Tribal Sangh have joined forces with the Congress.
We have woven together a political organisation with leaders who are influential in the micro-areas to blunt the forces of the BJP alliance. The AGP, despite ideological differences and despite the resistance from their own party cadre, went ahead with an alliance with the BJP. Ground chemistry between party cadres is crucial in an election.
Gogoi also acknowledges that the AGP has always had an understanding with the Congress. But despite stiff opposition from their own party cadre, they have gone ahead with an alliance with the BJP. The Congress may not say it upfront, but they sure are hinging on the recent rift within the Opposition.
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