The Aam Aadmi Party's defeat in the Delhi Assembly elections has sparked speculation of a political upheaval in Punjab, now the only place where AAP is in power.
Leader of the Opposition in Punjab, Partap Singh Bajwa, has said that Punjab CM Bhagwant Mann could be the "next Eknath Shinde", that is he could break ranks with AAP and join hands with the BJP.
The reason for this speculation is that the political capital of AAP's central leadership has never been lower in the party's existence of a little over 12 years. It wasn't this bad even when party convenor Arvind Kejriwal and senior leaders like Manish Sisodia, Satyendar Jain and Sanjay Singh were all in jail, or when Delhi was under President's Rule.
With this defeat, Kejriwal has lost one thing that was central to his political success - his phenomenal electoral performance in Delhi, from winning 28 seats in AAP's very first election in 2013 to sweeping the next two Assembly polls. Not only has AAP lost Delhi, its tally has fallen by 40 seats and Kejriwal was defeated from his own constituency.
What could be the impact of this defeat on Punjab politics?
There are five different aspects to this.
Sikh Voting Pattern in Delhi
Many of the BJP's Sikh faces won the elections this time, such as Manjinder Singh Sirsa from Rajouri Garden, Arvinder Singh Lovely from Gandhi Nagar and Tarwinder Marwah from Jangpura. Two of AAP's Sikh candidates also won - Jarnail Singh from Tilak Nagar and Punardeep Singh Sawhney from Chandni Chowk. AAP's Surinder Pal Singh Bittoo and Jitender Singh Shunty lost narrowly to BJP in Timarpur and Shahdara respectively.
However, surveys indicate that the BJP may still have lagged behind among Sikhs by a sizable margin. According to the Axis MyIndia Exit Poll, which got the overall result almost exactly correct, 69 percent Sikhs voted for AAP against 24 for the BJP. According to the CVoter survey, 49 percent Sikhs voted for AAP as opposed to 34 percent for the BJP.
What seems to have happened is that the community may have supported BJP in places where the party had strong Sikh candidates, such as Sirsa, Lovely and Marwah, while AAP remaining the first preference in most of the other seats.
Though Delhi's Sikhs have a different voting pattern from those in Punjab, AAP can draw solace from the fact that it was still the number one choice among Sikhs in the National Capital.
Support for the Congress dwindled to less than 5 percent as per both the surveys.
There is also bad news for the Shiromani Akali Dal.
Senior Punjab-based journalist IP Singh writes in Times of India that Sukhbir Badal's loyalists had campaigned against Sirsa, so his win is a blow to them.
"Sukhbir Badal sought to regain influence by forging alliances with former Delhi rivals Paramjit Sarna and Manjit Singh GK, both ex-presidents of the DSGMC. However, despite their joint campaign, Sirsa won," he writes.
Possible Increase in Kejriwal's Punjab Focus
With Punjab being the AAP's only full-fledged government, it had been a major source of finances and manpower for the party since 2022. Now with Delhi gone, the dependence on Punjab is only going to increase. But this may cut both ways.
On one hand, it may mean greater involvement of AAP's central leadership in Punjab affairs. With Kejriwal now no longer responsible for governance in Delhi, he would now have the time to focus on AAP's national expansion as well as preparations for the next Assembly elections in Punjab, due two years from now.
So far Kejriwal had delegated Punjab affairs to leaders like Raghav Chadha.
Of course, this is also subject to the cases he is facing from central agencies.
The other possibility is that it may also give Punjab CM Bhagwant Mann more leverage as nationally AAP will be much more dependent on him.
More Leverage for Bhagwant Mann
As of now, there may be no substance to the speculation of Mann possibly splitting with AAP. Mann's loyalty to Kejriwal has never been under question. More on the equation between the two leaders in this piece.
However, it is true that he now has more leverage than before due to the party's dependence on Punjab and weakening of AAP's central leadership after the Delhi defeat.
Compared to Kejriwal and AAP's Delhi leadership, Mann has had a better working relationship with the Centre. In the crackdown against preacher Amritpal Singh and his outfit Waris Punjab De, the Punjab police worked in close coordination with the Centre. Sending Amritpal and his close associates to Dibrugarh in Assam couldn't have happened without active coordination between the two.
However, a lot would depend on what PM Modi and Amit Shah do now, and whether they would indeed try the 'Eknath Shinde model' in Punjab.
Will BJP Try a Maharashtra or Arunachal Pradesh Style Coup in Punjab?
After returning to power in Delhi after 27 years, BJP is now confident that it can neutralise AAP as a threat. This has given rise to speculation that it may try to split the AAP in Punjab, hence Bajwa's allegation that Mann could end up as Eknath Shinde.
The BJP, too, on its part has realised that it isn't being able to grow in Punjab organically to the extent it hoped so the only way it can emerge in the state is by splitting one or more of the other 3 parties in the state (AAP, Congress and SAD).
However, this is easier said than done, due to three reasons.
First, BJP in Punjab is far weaker than it is in Maharashtra. In Maharashtra, it has been the strongest party for over a decade now. In Punjab, it just has two MLAs and no MP. Therefore, the Shinde Model may not be possible and what the BJP would need is the Arunachal Pradesh Model.
What's this model? A brief recap: Congress had won the 2014 Arunachal Pradesh elections with a massive majority. After two years all Congress MLAs except CM Nabam Tuki split from the party and joined the People's Party of Arunachal. Most of these MLAs were merged into the BJP a few months later. The BJP has already tried this in some way with Captain Amarinder Singh's Punjab Lok Congress, which subsequently merged into the BJP. The party proved to be a complete non-starter. Now it remains to be seen if BJP tries the same experiment with Punjab AAP.
Second, AAP has so far been relatively safe from splits since it came to power in Punjab in 2022. It also hasn't seen any major defections of even individual MLAs. Even in Delhi, the AAP didn't go through any major split except for a few leaders joining BJP ahead of the 2025 Assembly polls.
Third, the negativity towards BJP in Punjab may not be as intense as it was during the 2020-21 farmers' protest, but it very much exists, especially among the rural Sikh population.
Therefore, if anyone splits AAP, or even Congress or SAD for that matter to join hands with the BJP, it would come at a political cost at least among rural voters. Take for instance how Ravneet Bittu, BJP's strongest candidate in the Lok Sabha elections in Punjab, performed dismally in the rural segments in Ludhiana.
Opening for Punjab Opposition
AAP's defeat in Delhi will no doubt dent the 'Delhi Model' that the party has been showcasing across the country, including in Punjab. Then it also shows that Kejriwal isn't invincible after all.
This may give an added momentum to the anti-AAP parties in Punjab. Which one of them takes advantage of it - Congress, SAD, BJP or Independent Panthic parties - remains to be seen.
The party best placed to take advantage of this is the Congress, as it is presently the only party other than AAP which gets support from all communities in the state. However, it is unclear whether Congress will be able to use this opportunity as it remains deeply divided on factional lines, with former CM Charanjit Channi, Leader of Opposition Partap Bajwa and state unit chief Amarinder Singh Raja Warring competing for supremacy.
The SAD is in an even worse position and is presently undergoing a major leadership crisis.
The next few months will be crucial and may set the tone for the 2027 Punjab eleciton.