Events of the last one week are cases in point of the intense tussle between the BJP and the Aam Aadmi Party. Take these three events for instance;
The arrest of Delhi's Deputy Chief Minister Manish Sisodia.
The brawl between BJP and AAP councillors inside the Municipal Corporation of Delhi.
Punjab governor Banwarilal Purohit's refusal to allow the state's Budget Session to commence.
To be fair, AAP is still not a major national threat for the BJP as it is strong only in Delhi and Punjab, with some presence in Goa and a toehold in Gujarat.
Even in Delhi, despite defeats at the Assembly level, the BJP has so far been pretty robust against AAP at the Lok Sabha level with two consecutive 7-0 sweeps.
However, an incident during the Gujarat elections is instructive of how the BJP sees AAP. According to reports, during an internal BJP meeting, a state leader said that it is good AAP is eating into the Congress' votes. To this Union Home Minister Amit Shah is reported to have replied that the BJP needs to think of the next election and not just the ongoing one.
Now, the cases against AAP leaders may or may not have merit. But the sheer frequence of tussles between the two parties is noteworthy.
What the BJP is doing with AAP is similar to the sports tactic (later popularised by Chak De India) - of man-to-man marking - assigning specific players to thwart specific members of the opposite team.
This is happening at at least four levels.
1. The Cases Against Manish Sisodia
The CBI has arrested Sisodia in connection with the alleged liquor scam. The agency is also probing him in connection with the alleged snooping of political opponents.
Sisodia has been Arvind Kejriwal's de-facto number two for a long time, even before the AAP was formed in 2012.
Despite Kejriwal's falling out with a series of prominent AAP leaders like Yogendra Yadav, Prashant Bhushan, Kumar Vishwas, Ashutosh to name a few, Sisodia has always been by his side.
The two families are also very close.
The arrest of Sisodia is the biggest blow to AAP in this tussle so far. With Kejriwal focussing on political expansion, it was Sisodia who had taken over a great of of administrative responsibilities in Delhi.
His arrest also comes ahead of the Delhi Budget, that he was scheduled to present.
2. The Political Tussle in Punjab
AAP's win in Punjab in 2022 was in many ways even bigger than its victories in Delhi, as the 10-year-old party captured power in a full fledged state.
However, the political narrative in Punjab has often been at variance from the national narrative. For instance, for the past five Assembly elections, Punjab has voted for a party at the state level that is opposed to the ruling party at the national level.
The tussle between the BJP/central government and the AAP government in Punjab is happening at different levels.
On one hand, as we mentioned earlier, is the Governor Banwarilal Purohit and his recent letter refusing permission for the state's Budget Session over a few allegedly derogatory tweets made by CM Bhagwant Mann.
Punjab Chief Minister Bhagwant Mann.
(Photo:Twitter/IANS)
Then there is the national security card. The BJP has been saying that there is a complete collapse of law and order in Punjab. Incidents such as the Ajnala violence is being projected as proof of a 'rising Khalistani threat'. This has also led to much greater intervention of central agencies like National Investigation Agency on Punjab matters.
AAP is in a bind. It cannot launch a crackdown against Amritpal Singh without a great deal of homework, or it will have to face a major backlash in the state. It wants to wait and counter him politically rather than through the police.
But this is helping the BJP accuse AAP of being "weak" and "inept" on security matters.
BJP's aim is not so much in Punjab but to nip AAP in the bud nationally, by projecting that it has allowed pro-Khalistan elements to grow.
3. The Delhi Lieutenant Governor and the MCD
The AAP government in Delhi has been at loggerheads with Lieutenant Governor VK Saxena over several issues. The most recent clash was on the MCD, where the L-G had nominated members to the body which could have potentially altered the nunmbers in the house ahead of the mayoral election. The matter had to be settled in court.
Delhi CM Arvind Kejriwal has also accused the L-G of controlloing the bureaucracy and not allowing him to work.
Kejriwal even went on a protest march on the streets regarding the L-G refusal to let government teachers go for a training programme abroad.
4. The Case Against Satyendar Jain
Senior Delhi minister Satyendar Jain has been in jail over a money laundering case being probed by the Enforcement Directorate. Without going into the merits of the case, one can say that AAP did suffer politically because of it.
Jain was AAP's in-charge for the 2022 Himachal Pradesh Assembly elections. After his arrest, the party's campaign in the state never quite took off.
Through these four cases, two prominent AAP leaders have been taken out of action - Sisodia and Jain. And the two AAP governments are also facing obstacles.
This gives Kejriwal very limited room for maneuverability in the party's national expansion plans.
He has been trying to give more organisational responsibilities to younger leaders like Raghav Chadha and Sandeep Pathak. But as Satyendar Jain's case showed, there was some damage to AAP.
But Manish Sisodia's arrest is a very big development. Its repercussions within AAP will be clear only in the days to come.
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