A Comeback in Kerala, Decimated in Bengal; CPI(M)’s Road Ahead

The sun did not rise in the east, at least for the CPI(M). Reduced to a distant third in West Bengal, despite the much touted alliance with the Congress, the CPI(M) leadership has a lot to think about. Instead of coming back to power on the backs of their long-time rivals, they have helped India’s grand old party retain their seats despite the Trinamool tsunami.The convincing victory in Kerala will, perhaps, make up a little bit for the complete debacle in West Bengal. The CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front (LDF) has won in a state where Congress CM Oomen Chandy enjoyed considerable popularity despite accusations of corruption. The big question in the state now – who will be the chief minister? There is a chance that the CPI(M) may supersede its most popular leader in the state.Lessons From Mamata’s Time in the OppositionThe Left can learn a lot about being in the Opposition from Mamata Banerjee. In 2006, there were accusations of violence and intimidation against the Left Front. The elections were conducted in five phases (to ensure they were free and fair), and Mamata Banerjee was fighting her long-time foes tooth and nail. Despite predictions that stated the contrary, the CPI(M) managed one of its largest tallies ever.That loss must have been a big blow to Mamata Banerjee, who had faced attacks, both physical and verbal from the CPI(M) over the years. But she persevered and five years later, when the people of West Bengal were ready to vote the CPI(M) out, the Trinamool Congress was the only choice. The Congress’ tally far exceeds the CPI(M)’s this time. Even the BJP has managed a decent showing. The CPI(M) needs to stay relevant, vocal and connected to the people of the state, just as Mamata did in her time in the Opposition.The jot (the Left-Congress alliance) came a little too late this time. But in 2019, the alliance with the Congress can well help them in the general elections, where the TMC’s perceived closeness with the BJP can push the state’s sizeable Muslim vote against them. That can only happen if the CPI(M) can keep the alliance going and and its cadre inspired after it has been decimated in what was once its most unassailable bastion.Kerala’s CM Conundrum In Kerala, the government changes every five years. But that doesn’t take away from the Left Front’s impressive victory. They have taken away nearly a third of the ruling coalition’s seats and a smooth, stable and popular government seems on the cards. The only possible spanner in the works could be internal rivalries within the CPI(M) and the CM post. On the one hand, there’s VS Achuthanandan, arguably the most popular mass leader in the state, a former CM and nearly 93 years old. On the other, there is Pinarayi Vijayan, a former State Secretary of the CPI(M) whose hold on the organisation of the party is strong. While Vijayan certainly has the support of certain factions in the central leadership, he does not enjoy the same popularity as VS. Despite VS’ age, superseding a mass leader for an organisation man, at this time, may not be the wisest decision. To maintain their hold on the votes they have received till the 2019 elections, the CPI(M) and Sitaram Yechury will need their grand old man in Kerala more than ever.However, the greatest long-term challenge for India’s democratic Communists doesn’t lie in alliances and CM candidates. The magnitude of the defeat in Bengal points to a decline in the appeal and the core vote of the Left. To address that, they need a change both in party line (ideology) and the organisational changes that come from that.

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A Comeback in Kerala, Decimated in Bengal; CPI(M)’s Road Ahead

A mixed day for the CPI(M) and major pitfalls ahead.

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Topics: Sitaram Yechury VS Achuthanandan Pinarayi Vijayan