Explained in Numbers: How Does a 'United Opposition' Match Up Against the BJP?

The Patna meet on Friday, 23 June, attended by over 15 parties and 30+ national leaders, set things in motion for the coming together of a grand Opposition alliance against the Narendra Modi-led Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. Despite a spat between the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) and Congress over Centre's Delhi ordinance, and absence of parties such as Mayawati's Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), K Chandrasekhar Rao's Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS), and YS Jaganmohan Reddy's YSR Congress Party, the meeting looked like an overall success. At a press conference after the meeting, the leaders announced that they intend to contest the upcoming general elections together as an alliance.The more difficult questions regarding seat sharing agreements, larger poll arithmetic, and a common minimum programme, however, were left for the Shimla meet — scheduled in July.This is not the first time that talks of a grand alliance or a 'united' Opposition to take on the ruling party or coalition are being floated ahead of elections. Patna Opposition Meet a Win For Nitish Kumar: What's Next? He Faces 4 ChallengesComplete Opposition unity was achieved in 1977, after the Emergency, when several smaller parties merged to form the Janata Party to defeat the Congress. In 1996, as PV Narasimha Rao's tenure as the Prime Minister came to an end, the BJP won 161 seats to emerge as the single largest party and, stitched an alliance with Shiv Sena, Samata Party, and Haryana Vikas Party, as it catapulted itself to power, but only for a few days. Again, in 2003, the Congress under then President Sonia Gandhi made the case for a broad anti-BJP alliance in the run up to the 2004 general elections. Even in the 2019 elections, key Opposition parties did come together in states like Uttar Pradesh, Jharkhand, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu. So, what do the results from past elections tell us about the potential success of a united Opposition as the 2024 Lok Sabha elections draw close?Interestingly, the choice of venue for the first two meetings — Patna and Shimla — signify successful coming together of the Opposition forces in the past.It was in Bihar that popular socialist leader Jayaprakash Narayan started the Sampoorna Kranti or the Total Revolution Movement which was followed by the Emergency and then subsequently resulted in the defeat of Indira Gandhi's majority government in 1977. Similarly, the Shimla conclave of 2003, chaired by Sonia Gandhi, paved the way for the forging of the United Progressive Alliance (UPA). At the conclave, the Congress adopted a softer position on coalition politics and called for the unity of "secular" parties. Even though, a post-poll entity, the UPA helped the party stay in power for close to a decade. The Patna meet was attended by leaders of 15 political parties. These include: Janata Dal (United), Congress, AAP, Rashtriya Janata Dal, Shiv Sena (UBT), Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), Samajwadi Party, Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK), Communist Party of India (CPI), CPI (Marxist), National Conference, People's Democratic Party (PDP), Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM), CPI (Marxist Leninist), and Trinamool Congress (TMC).Currently, the BJP dominates the Lok Sabha or the Lower House of the Indian Parliament which has a total strength of 543 MPs. The majority mark in the house is 272. As per the results of the 2019 general elections:The BJP, on its own, has 303 MPs in the house. BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) has 353 MPs. The Congress has 52 MPs, while the UPA in total has 91 MPs. The 15 parties present at the Patna meet together have 136 MPs.In 2019, Nitish Kumar's JD(U) and the Shiv Sena under Uddhav Thackeray were both part of the NDA. While the Bihar CM is now anchoring the Opposition alliance, Shiv Sena saw a major split in 2022, and the UBT faction led by Thackeray is part of the Opposition front while the other faction led by Eknath Shinde has joined hands with the BJPThe Rajya Sabha or the Upper House of the Parliament has a total of 245 seats. Of these, the BJP alone has 93 seats, whereas the Congress has 31 seats. BJP-led NDA has a total of 110 seats.The total number of MPs sent by the Opposition parties (which attended the Patna meet) to the Rajya Sabha is also 93.Patna Opposition Meet: Strong Leadership Chemistry But Election Math is ComplexThe BJP's vote share in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections was 37.36 percent. Whereas that of the ruling NDA alliance was 45 percent. Over time, several parties left the alliance and the current NDA vote share in Lok Sabha is 39.92 percent.As per the results of the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, the 15 Opposition parties which were present in Patna together hold a vote share of 37.99 percent. [Note: This vote share was calculated based on the votes won by the Shiv Sena before it split into two]Interestingly, even though the Opposition consolidated against the BJP more strongly in 2019 as compared to 2014, the saffron party not only managed to increase its seat share (282 to 303) but also witnessed a significant increase in its vote share (31 percent in 2014 to 37.36 percent in 2019).(Note: This calculation is an aggregation to give an idea about the base of these parties. Vote transfer is subjective and not as simple, given most of these parties, except Congress, have a base only in one or two states.)The state-level seat-sharing agreement which this group of parties is expected to decide at the Shimla meet will largely determine the contours of the Opposition's fight against the BJP. The Opposition is already united in states such as Maharashtra, Bihar, Tamil Nadu, Jharkhand, and Jammu and Kashmir. These states send a total of 148 MPs to the Lok Sabha. Uttar Pradesh, where the SP and BSP came together for a 'mahagathbandhan' in 2019, is expected to witness a four-way contest between BJP, SP, BSP, and the Congress. The state sends 80 MPs to the Lok Sabha. Other states where the Opposition parties have a significant presence are West Bengal, where the TMC is in direct competition with the BJP, Delhi where the AAP is in direct with the Congress, and Kerala where the Congress is in direct competition with the Left. Even as the BJP remains formidable in terms of its strength in the Lok Sabha, vote share analysis from 2019 shows that a united Opposition might stand a chance. The success or failure of the Opposition front against the BJP, however, is largely dependent on two main factors: Stitching of effective regional alliances and a well chalked out seat-sharing agreement: In approximately 180 seats the regional parties are the main challengers to the BJP. The Congress, on the other hand, is engaged in a head-on battle with the BJP in about 230+ seats across states. How the parties divide these seats will be crucial. A common minimum programme which emphasises on a common purpose or intent of the alliance rather than making it sound just like an anti-BJP front. Patna Meet: How is AAP-Congress Friction Likely to Impact a 'United' Opposition?

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Explained in Numbers: How Does a 'United Opposition' Match Up Against the BJP?

The Opposition parties will next meet in Shimla to discuss seat-sharing agreement and a common minimum programme.

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Topics: 2024 Lok Sabha Elections 2024 elections