'Will Be First to Lose Jobs': Indian Migrant Workers in Iran, Across Gulf Remain on Edge

Subham Srivastava, a steel plant engineer from Delhi, arrived at the mountainous Mazandaran Province of Iran in May for a month-long project. He was scheduled to fly back on 20 June. With just over a week left, Srivastava was looking forward to his return when, on 13 June, Israel launched missiles on Iran. Srivastava hoped there would be no further escalation—but over the past one week, the airstrikes between the two nations have only intensified.As flights from Iran were cancelled, Srivastava was left with no other recourse but attempt to cross into Azerbaijan to return to India. However, visa-related procedures prevented him from crossing the Iranian border.“I have a passport and a valid Iranian work visa. But visa procedures aren’t being processed here at the moment. A few others I know are in the same situation," Srivastava told The Quint via text.Upon contacting the Indian Embassy in Tehran, which is trying to actively provide support to facilitate the relocation and evacuation of those in Iran, Srivastava was told to try the Armenian border. He is now stranded at the Iran-Armenia border along with hundreds of others, frantically trying to find a way out."We’re now being told to go to Mashhad, which is about 1,500 km away... My Iran visa expires in two days. That will complicate my situation further. We don’t know what to do."Subham SrivastavaA Telegram group “Indians in Iran”, created by the Indian Embassy in Iran, to coordinate rescue operations has revealed the worrisome situation of many other Indians like him. The group has 2,012 members, including Srivastava, many of whom are panicking and desperately seeking options—especially buses—to reach border crossings and leave Iran. 'We Got 10 Mins to Board Bus & Leave': Prayagraj Local, Mother Stranded in IranSince 13 June, the Iran-Israel conflict has escalated, claiming about 200 lives in Iran and two dozen in Israel, pushing the Middle East to the brink. While global attention remains focused on oil prices, geopolitics, and military strategy, a critical human story risks being overlooked: the fate of nine million vulnerable Indian migrant workers across the six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, as well as Jordan and Lebanon. Khaleel Rahman, an Indian finance manager living in Kuwait for 20 years, expressed concerns about the situation among the migrant community there."As tensions develop, the business community is worried. Consumers are only purchasing essential items, which is going to negatively impact the economy."Khaleel Rahman, Indian migrant, KuwaitHe further noted that a few companies have instructed their employees to take leave, adding that if the tensions escalate, low-paid migrant workers will be affected.Varghese George, a driver in Dubai for the past 30 years, and Sudheer Thirunilath, an Indian migrant lawyer living in Bahrain, echoed similar concerns. Meanwhile, Rafi Mohammed, a supervisor in the construction sector for the last 13 years in the UAE, said that while there are no immediate signs of tension, there is growing fear among workers about whether the crisis will escalate and lead to job losses.Latheef Thechy, an Indian migrant activist in Saudi Arabia, confirms such forebodings."If tensions escalate, the situation could spread throughout the GCC countries, ultimately endangering the livelihoods and futures of millions of Indian migrant workers."Latheef Thechy, Migrant workers' rights acrtivist, Saudi ArabiaKerala alone is home to over 3.5 million migrants in the GCC. Their remittances power the state’s economy, sustain millions of households, and keep entire local industries afloat. In the past, the 1990 Iraqi invasion of Kuwait, and later the 2020 COVID-19 outbreak, have affected Kerala. Both times, thousands of migrant workers were forced to return home empty-handed after losing their jobs and businesses, leading to a drop in remittances to Kerala. Detailing how migrant workers will be affected in the GCC countries if tensions escalate, Rafeek Ravuther, Executive Director of Kerala-based Centre for Indian Migrant Studies, which has a wide network in the GCC countries, told The Quint that whenever there are tensions in the region, migrants get trapped in different ways. “Crude prices will rise, increasing costs for companies. Cargo movement will be disrupted, leading to price hikes and delivery delays. These two factors will dent the GCC economy, putting businesses at risk. When businesses are at risk, they will look to cut costs. How do they cut costs? They halt projects and reduce their workforce."Rafeek Ravuther, Indian Migrant Studies, KeralaRavuther added that it would be the "the low-paid migrant workers—often seen as disposable—who would lose their jobs first, especially in the construction and hospitality sectors, which are among the largest employers in the region".Citing Kerala government figures, BA Prakash, the former professor of economics at the University of Kerala, noted in a 2023 study that from the outbreak of COVID-19 at the end of 2019 till mid-2021, around 15 lakh Keralites had returned to the state. India remains the largest recipient of remittances globally. After the US, all the GCC countries rank among the top remittance-sending nations. According to an RBI Bulletin published earlier in March, Kerala's share of the total remittance inflows stood at 19 percent in 2016-17. This declined to 10.2 percent in 2020-21, the pandemic period, before rising again to 19.7 percent in 2023-24. India’s total remittances reached $118.7 billion (Rs 9.88 lakh crore) in 2023-24. The RBI noted that the decline in remittances from the GCC region during the pandemic was primarily due to the mass return of contractual migrant workers to India.“Let’s hope such a crisis doesn’t happen again. It would be difficult for India—especially Kerala—to cope with another drop in remittances,” Ravuther said.How likely are the Gulf nations to be affected by the Israel-Iran escalation? Much depends on the US. Speaking to The Quint, Dr Ginu Zacharia Oommen—an eminent professor specialising in West Asian studies—warned that any military intervention by the US was likely to compel the GCC nations to act. “I read credible reports that Russia has warned the US against striking Iran, citing fears of a potential nuclear catastrophe. This warning isn’t just about protecting its ally, Iran—there’s a broader concern. A US intervention could destabilise the entire Middle East. If the US attacks, Iran may retaliate by targeting American military bases located across the GCC."Dr Ginu Zacharia Oommen, geopolitics expertThe US has key installations, including an air base in Qatar, naval base in Bahrain, and various military facilities in Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE. "Iran has already demonstrated its missile capability by launching ballistic missiles that can cross 1,000s of kilometers in minutes and strike Tel Aviv. If Iran can hit Israel from its territory, it can likely target US bases in the Gulf just as easily,” he added.According to a March 2025 report by the Council on Foreign Relations, about 40,000 American service members are stationed across the Middle East, many aboard naval vessels.The US maintains military facilities at 19 sites—eight considered permanent—in countries including Bahrain, Egypt, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, and the UAE. Any US intervention in the Iran-Israel conflict would likely be launched from these bases, putting host nations at risk of retaliation or escalation.R Kumar (name changed), a vessel-owning, Indian crude oil trader based in the UAE fears that if American bases are targeted in the region, "then it’s a full-scale war"."Everything will spiral out of control: crude and cargo movement will be disrupted, prices will surge, jobs will be lost, and a host of other problems will follow.”R Kumar, Crude oil trader, UAE (name changed)“Iran-backed proxies in Yemen have the capability to disrupt crude and cargo movement through the Strait of Hormuz,” he added.The narrow Strait of Hormuz, linking the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and the Indian Ocean, handles around one-fifth of the world’s daily oil supply—up to 20 million barrels per day. It is the primary route for crude and petroleum exports from OPEC members Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, Iraq, and Iran, with few viable alternatives.Speaking to The Quint from Petah Tikva—one of Israel’s oldest cities in the Central District, just east of Tel Aviv—Saji Varghese, an Indian caregiver who has lived there for the past 10 years, described the tense situation on the ground. “There are message alerts and sirens whenever Iranian missiles enter Israeli airspace. We’re safe, but at night, we have to stay in the bunker. Today, public transport has resumed, and shops are open. The Israeli forces are managing to counter the attacks.”Saji Varghese, Indian caregiver, IsraelThe New York Times reported that four people were killed in an Iranian missile strike in Petah Tikva. According to Saji, the attack occurred just a few meters from his residence.There are around 20,000 Indians in Israel. Back in Iran, many like Srivastava are at their wit's end. So far, India has successfully evacuated over a hundred Indian nationals under 'Operation Sindhu'.Meanwhile, a message posted on the Telegram group on Thursday at 10:51 am has urged all individuals in Tehran to leave the country immediately. The message read, “We need everyone in Tehran to leave today. Please spread the word.”Despite the assurances, Srivastava feels he's running out of options. "I am a bit clueless. Don't know what will happen," was his last message.(Rejimon Kuttappan is an idependent journalist from Kerala.)

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'Will Be First to Lose Jobs': Indian Workers in Iran, Across Gulf Remain on Edge

'Low-paid workers, especially in the construction and hospitality sectors, are seen as disposable," says an expert.

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Topics: Israel Iran Gulf