Prime Minister Narendra Modi will begin the last part of his three-nation tour on May 18 in South Korea, having successfully completed the China and Mongolia leg over the last week. While this columnist had cautioned, prior to the Modi visit, that there was an inherent glass-ceiling as to how much substantive progress could be made along the Delhi-Beijing axis, given the underlying mistrust and anxiety in India about China’s orientation apropos the former’s core security and strategic interest – a preliminary assessment of the Modi visit thus far would suggest that it has been more satisfactory than one had anticipated.
It is instructive to note that on the trade and economic front more than $20 billion worth of agreements have been inked and cover a wide spectrum of railways, ports, education, financial sector et al and this augurs well. Reference has been made to the pharma sector where India has proven strength and it is to be seen over the next year as to how much value added exports will be possible as part of the Indian basket. In like fashion, the infrastructure projects – particularly in the port sector is a bold departure from the earlier reticence associated with Delhi in this regard.
Confident India Image
In his interactions with the Chinese political apex in Beijing, as also the academic community (Tsinghua University ) and the business community in Shanghai – PM Modi projected an image of a confident India that perceived itself as a credible swing state in the Asian strategic calculus and by extension the relevance for the global grid was implicitly underscored. This swing state aspect acquires greater salience in relation to the extended North East Asian region which includes China, Japan, the Korean peninsula and Mongolia.
Territorial Dispute for Later
Specific to the Beijing visit, there was no breakthrough or breakdown over the tangled territorial dispute and perhaps the best outcome that both nations can strive for is to arrive at a break-even template at a future date while maintaining a ‘peaceful’ albeit uneasy interim status quo. This is the sense reflected in the joint statement that notes :
The two sides are determined to actively seek a political settlement of the boundary question. They made a positive assessment of the important progress made through the mechanism of the Special Representatives, and reaffirmed the commitment to abide by the three-stage process for the settlement of the boundary question, and continuously push forward negotiation on the framework for a boundary settlement based on the outcomes and common understanding achieved so far, in an effort to seek a fair, reasonable and mutually acceptable solution as early as possible.
– Joint Statement (PM Narendra Modi and President Xi Jinping)
How early is early remains a matter of conjecture but it would be both welcome and radical if this were to happen during the Modi-Xi watch when the two leaders are at the helm of their respective countries.
On Terrorism
The second issue that is of abiding concern to India is terrorism and here while not making explicit reference to Pakistan – the language is nuanced yet carries the Indian view. The joint statement adds:
Both sides reiterated their strong condemnation of and resolute opposition to terrorism in all its forms and manifestations and committed themselves to cooperate on counter-terrorism. They agreed that there is no justification for terrorism and urged all countries and entities to work sincerely to disrupt terrorist networks and their financing, and stop cross-border movement of terrorists, in accordance with the relevant principles and purposes of the UN Charter and international laws. (emphasis added ) They called for early conclusion of negotiations on the Comprehensive Convention on International Terrorism.
– Joint Statement (PM Narendra Modi and President Xi Jinping)
Again whether this will translate into tangible action wherein Beijing will walk the talk and prevail upon Rawalpindi (GHQ of the Pak Army) to review its support to terror as a strategic option against India remains to be seen. The urgency for such a review to quarantine terror groups is something that Beijing is aware of and the most recent violence in Karachi and Kabul point to the latent vulnerability of China’s economic and trade initiatives in the region. The probability of any swift change of mind-set in Pakistan through friendly suasion remains low as the US example would suggest and as analyst – one will be happy to be proved wrong and that Beijing succeeds!
Arms Control and Nuclear Profile
Yet another outcome of the Modi that is potentially significant is the inclusion of the nuclear dimension in the bi-lateral. The formal statement notes:
The two sides welcomed the India-China Dialogue on Arms Control and Non-Proliferation held in Beijing on April 17, 2015. Noting the commonalities in their approach to global arms control and non-proliferation, they agreed to continue their engagement bilaterally and in multilateral fora on arms control and non-proliferation. The Chinese side took note of India’s aspirations to become a member of the NSG, in a bid to strengthen international non-proliferation efforts.
– Joint Statement (PM Narendra Modi and President Xi Jinping)
Beijing in the past has been either dismissive or disparaging of the Indian nuclear profile and the 2008 rapprochement with the US and other major powers that had accorded India a distinctive status was not endorsed by China. Whether this matter will now be discussed more candidly – including the nuclear weapon-terrorism linkage – in the bilateral framework is one more potentially important strand.
Importance of Mongolia Visit
The Mongolia leg of the Modi visit is to be commended for its sub-text. This is the first visit by an Indian PM to a long neglected yet strategically critical nation and conveys a strong political signal in North East Asia. The joint statement had an unambiguous reiteration of an Indian view :
India and Mongolia support the evolution of open, balanced and inclusive security architecture in the Asia Pacific region based on collective efforts, considering legitimate interests of all states of the region guided by respect for norms and principles of international law.
– Joint Statement (PM Modi and Mongolian PM Chimed Saikhanbileg)
Furthermore the current level of bilateral defence and security cooperation is to be enhanced and specific reference has been made to Mongolia’s ‘radioactive’ minerals and cooperative exploration of the same.
Expectations from South Korea
South Korea will complete the last leg of the current Modi foreign yatra and the political acceptability cum strategic swing index of India in NE Asia comes into focus. The China-Japan-South Korea triangle is laden with historical animosities and modern contradictions. Robust economic linkages among them have not mitigated deep mistrust and along with India, this quartet represents the four leading economies of Asia. And it would be fair to note that India relatively has the highest politico-strategic comfort level with all three nations.
If the Modi visit is able to catalyze a significantly enhanced trade and investment response among these three North Eastern Asian states – the ‘make in India’ mantra will acquire the necessary traction and hopefully shared geo-economic interests will still contain the unexpected geo-political convulsion.
(C. Uday Bhaskar is one India’s leading experts on Strategic Affairs. He is currently Director, Society for Policy Studies)
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