Sushma Swaraj pushed all the right buttons at the UN General Assembly on Monday night. She named Pakistan, but if the objective was to shame and isolate it, one can’t be quite sure if either was achieved.
Islamabad has borne with some pride the mantle of state sponsor of terrorism and jihad and taken advantage of the world’s inability to develop a consensus on what constitutes terrorism and who is a terrorist. Isolating that country will take more than speeches at the United Nations. “Iron Brother” China has given every indication it will not abandon its sibling and underscored its value for Beijing by describing it as “China’s Israel”.
Global Consensus on Terrorism Missing
But diplomacy is a slow grind, results come in trickles and India needs to keep up the refrain. The point is, hardly a day goes by without some report of a terror or suspected terror strike in Europe or America. The world is on edge, there’s little sympathy for those claiming some real or imaginary grievance as licence to take up arms and shoot people.
Yet, there is no consensus on what to do about terror sponsors like Pakistan. The US, Islamabad’s five decades old ally, reportedly upbraided Nawaz Sharif during a one-on-one on the sidelines of the UNGA. But the statement that emerged from the meeting made no mention of Pakistan’s role in the attack on the Indian Army camp in Uri.
Why US Needs Pakistan as an Ally
Clearly the US, although fatigued with Pakistan’s constant scheming with terrorists of every hue, still has use for it. Pakistan is an important piece of real estate, wedged in between South and Central Asia and a stone’s throw from the oil rich Gulf and Straits of Hormuz. It borders China’s volatile Xinjiang province, where the US would love to meddle; and also Shia Iran (Washington would love to overthrow the Ayatollahs despite signing a nuclear deal with them).
There’s also the fact that Pakistan’s help would be useful when the decision is taken to pull out all US troops from Afghanistan.
India’s Political Leadership Lacks Clarity
That leaves India pretty much to its own devices, it would seem. The conclusion is inescapable to many, that while diplomacy is all very well, the world respects muscle power. India, apart from complaining at world fora about Pakistani terrorism for so many decades, seems content with that. For such a big, resource-rich country and its million-man army notwithstanding, the mindset is defensive and cautious suggestive of a lack of confidence.
If you talk to the armed forces, they underscore one point. They have the resources, the capability and the men to make Pakistan, especially the Pakistani army, pay. The problem lies in the inability or unwillingness of the political leadership to define what they want. A clear idea would enable the military to fine-tune retaliation. This is absent.
Modi Govt Under Pressure
The mounting criticism on social media is indicative of the enormous pressure on the government. So many days after the Uri attack and 19 deaths, all one has got are platitudes from ruling party netas.
Nevertheless, I believe the last word on Uri will be written by India, that this government is making an effort to alter the current India-Pakistan dynamic. How will they do it?
Dealing with Pakistan
The current diplomatic effort is one element; the talk about leveraging India’s control of the Indus to inflict pain on Pakistan is another; then the Prime Minister has red flagged Balochistan; intelligence experts have publicly stated that it will not take much to destabilise Pakistan, given the large number of disaffected groups present; also important, for the first time the Prime Minister has sought to reach out to the Pakistani people during the BJP conclave in Kozhikode.
This could be derided as grand standing but his appeal that the battle for India and Pakistan is poverty and illiteracy will have an appeal there.
There are no short cuts to dealing with our neighbour. India will have to leverage every instrument of national power, including military or clandestine operations. In the meantime, now that the UNGA is over, let’s keep an eye on what happens inside Pakistan.
(The writer is former international affairs editor, CNN-IBN and NDTV. He can be reached at @suryagang. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for the same.)
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