The Narendra Modi government is at mid-term and a lot happened on the Pakistan front since May 2014. But how many of Modi’s diplomatic moves worked and which ones didn’t?
In 2014, Modi invited Pakistan’s Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif to his swearing-in and it was hailed as a bold move. It set aside bad history and seemed like a fresh start. This worked.
But in August, the government called off foreign secretary-level talks because the Pakistan High Commissioner Abdul Basit met Hurriyat leaders. The government seemed to say, “Yeah, we’re open to talking, but you’re going to have to follow the rules.” Strong stance. But meeting the Hurriyat wasn’t out of character for a Pakistan High Commissioner and maybe Modi overreacted. We’re not sure if this worked.
And then the relationship dipped for a while. But in July and November 2015, the prime ministers met in Ufa for Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit and then in Paris on the sidelines of COP21. This attempt to return to good terms worked and was followed by Sushma Swaraj travelling to Islamabad.
Then came Modi’s masterstroke – he landed in Lahore on 25 December 2015 on his way back from Afghanistan to wish Prime Minister Sharif, a happy birthday. This was completely unexpected, and it made him look like a leader who didn’t follow the standard rulebook. This definitely worked.
But the good times didn’t last long. Just over a week later, the Pathankot airbase was attacked by terrorists suspected to be from Pakistan. But the Modi government chose not to shut down dialogue. Instead, it allowed a Joint Investigation Team from Pakistan to survey the site of the attack. Many called it a bad move. Well, the JIT went back and said India had staged the attack to malign Pakistan. This did not work.
And then, Kashmir. Hizbul Mujahideen commander Burhan Wani’s death at the hands of Indian security forces in July 2016 led to Kashmir being engulfed in protests and clampdowns. Pakistan called out India for human rights violations and Modi, in a major foreign policy departure, brought up Pakistan’s human rights violations in Balochistan. It got a lot of people talking but was, more or less, received positively. This move worked.
But then came 18 September – the Uri attack took place killing 19 Indian soldiers. India was angry. The relationship, that was on such a high in 2014, came crashing down. India withdrew from the Islamabad SAARC summit which led to three other countries backing out and the summit being called off. Pak’s MFN status, the Indus Water Treaty – everything was put under scrutiny.
But on 29 September, India announced it had carried out surgical strikes against military launch pads across the Line of Control. Pakistan denied it. But regardless, the move seemed to work because it restored faith in PM Modi.
So, has Modi’s overall Pakistan policy worked? In terms of real gains, there hasn’t been much progress in two and half years. Figuring out Pakistan is a tall order and nobody’s managed yet.
The positivity of 2014 is long lost and there’s a lot of uncertainty about what’s going to happen next. Three Indian soldiers were killed on 22 November along the LoC and one of the bodies was mutilated. The Indian Army has vowed “heavy retribution”. As the rhetoric escalates, Prime Minister Modi runs the risk of unintended consequences.
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