The Congress party has come out ahead in the elections to 63 urban local bodies comprising 1,361 seats, that went to polls in Karnataka on 29 May, winning 509 seats. The BJP came in second winning 366 seats while the JD(S), Congress’ alliance partner bagged only 174 seats. As many as 160 seats were bagged by Independents.
Seats were contested in eight city municipal councils (CMC), 33 town municipal councils (TMC) and 22 town panchayats (TP).
Going by the assumption that Congress and JD(S) will continue their alliance in the state, the coalition bagged 5 of the eight CMCs that went to polls on 29 May, while 2 CMCs will be decided on which party the Independent candidates go with.
When it comes to TMCs, the coalition won 20 of them with the BJP bagging 5 of the total 33. Independent candidates won in 2 TMCs while the remaining 3 will be decided on the basis of whom the Independents go with.
Out of the 22 town panchayats that went to polls, the coalition won in 7 of them while the BJP came out ahead in 8 TPs. Where the remaining three town panchayats will go depends on which party the Independents side with.
The BJP and Congress won a seat each (Kaveripura and Sagayarapuram) in the BBMP by-elections.
‘ULB Polls Results Surprising’: Congress
After securing over 51 percent of the vote share in the general elections and leading in 170 Assembly segments of the total 224, the BJP would have set their sights on sweeping any fresh election in the state. However, after being dealt a decisive loss in these polls, it may have to rethink its strategy of pushing for fresh elections.
KPCC president Dinesh Gundu Rao called the results surprising, and said that it had energised the party cadre who had been demoralised after the LS polls results.
“These elections were held on 29 May after the results of the the parliamentary elections were announced. This proves that people are supporting us. Whatever the BJP had said about people losing faith in the Congress has all been proven false after these ULB results. Thus, one cannot say how any party will perform in the Assembly elections.”Dinesh Gundu Rao, KPCC president
Rao also added that the vast difference in the results had caused concern over media reports that highlighted vast discrepancies in the number of EVM votes polled and number of EVM votes counted.
How People Vote in Local Polls V LS Polls
According to experts, people vote differently in Lok Sabha elections and local polls with vastly different dynamics.
A Narayana, professor of Azim Premji University, said that different factors were at play in the Lok Sabha polls that saw people resoundingly vote for the BJP.
“What we see in the Lok Sabha polls and these results is that the dynamics are very different. There was a Modi factor and his persona did have an effect. You can see that even in places like Chikkaballapur and Kolar where the BJP would get votes in the 100s in the Assembly polls and local elections. But here also the people have voted in BJP MPs. The candidates are more important in local elections, while the general elections played out more like Presidential polls,” he said.
‘Can’t say Which Party Will Win Assembly Polls; but Margin Won’t Be as Large’
After a resounding victory in the Lok Sabha polls where the party won an unprecedented 25 seats of the total 28, the BJP was considering a future in the state where the fall of the government necessitated fresh elections that brought them to power.
However, it is not always necessary that the local councillors would help vote the MLAs to power. According to Narayana, the correlation of the local poll results and Assembly polls were more than in the case of Lok Sabha polls leading to favourable Assembly election results.
“Since 1994, the BJP has been getting most of the seats in the Lok Sabha polls, but the local elections kind of reflected what the Assembly elections would show. After BJP came to power in 2008, they won the rural local elections held afterwards. Same in 2013, when the Congress came to power in 2013 and won the subsequent Lok Sabha polls. But in 2014, after Modi came to power in general elections, the BJP got only 8 seats while the Congress won 13.”A Narayana
While it is hard to say which party will emerge victorious in any fresh Assembly polls, it is safe to say that it will not be swept resoundingly either by the BJP or the coalition.
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