In a surprise move, 48 hours before the by-election to three Lok Sabha and two Assembly constituencies in Karnataka, Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) candidate for Ramanagara (Assembly seat), L Chandrashekar, quit the party and withdrew his candidature. Chandrashekar, who had joined the BJP three days before the submission of nominations, has now returned to the party and announced his support for JD(S) candidate Anitha Kumaraswamy.
In a statement to the media, Chandrashekar cited infighting in the BJP as the reason for his resignation from the party. “No one supported me in BJP in Ramanagara. In the last two days, no leaders have contacted me. Yesterday (Wednesday) I even tried calling Yeddyurappa but he didn't want to talk to me. I am backing out from polls,” he said.
This move comes as a setback for the BJP, which was hoping to set up base in Old Mysuru region, where its presence is weak. With the Congress and JD(S) contesting together, the BJP was hoping to increase its vote share in region.
BJP’s Hopes Take a Hit
In April 2017, when the by-elections were announced in Nanjangud and Gundlupet, two Assembly constituencies in Old Mysore region, Congress was certain of a win. The Janata Dal Secular (JDS), which holds sway over the region dominated by Vokkaliga voters decided not to contest the polls citing lack of funds and the BJP didn’t have a strong base in the region to pose a threat to the Congress.
As expected, the Congress won the by-election. But just over a year later, in 2018 Assembly elections, the BJP won both Nanjangud and Gundlupet. According to the party, during the 2017 by-election, the party had managed to increase its influence in the region.
The bypolls in 2018 had once again presented the BJP with an opportunity to spread its influence in the region.
Among the five seats being contested are Mandya (parliament seat) and Ramanagara (Assembly seat). While the BJP is not hoping for a win in these two JD(S) strongholds, the party plans to increase its vote share for a longer gain, like they did in 2017.
The Old Mysore region includes Mysuru, Mandya, Chamarajanagar, Ramanagara, Bengaluru Rural, Kolar, Chickballapur, Tumakuru, and Hassan districts.
In 2008, the BJP vote share in the region was around 21 percent. In 2013, it dropped to 8 percent after the tall leader of the party, BS Yeddyurappa, left the BJP to form Karnataka Janata Paksha (KJP). In the 2018 Assembly election however, the BJP’s vote share increased to 18 percent and the party ensured it had an MLA in all districts of the region except Mandya.
The BJP recorded 18 percent vote share when the election was a three-party contest. As the Congress is not contesting next week’s by-election in the region, the BJP was hoping for a larger chunk of the vote share.
The big trump card for the BJP was the defection of Congress leader L Chandrashekar. As the Congress has decided support JD (S) candidate CM’s wife Anitha Kumaraswamy, disgruntled Chandrashekar had defected to the BJP and was fielded as the candidate against Anitha Kumaraswamy.
For the BJP, which lacks the second-rung of Vokkaliga leaders – the dominant community in the region – defections of the leaders like Chandrashekar was an opportunity to create a leadership in the region.
But with Chandrashekar’s exit, the BJP’s ambitions in the region have taken a big hit.
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