The India Today-Axis My India opinion poll, conducted in Gujarat which will go to polls shortly, has given the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) a clear majority. The opinion poll predicts the BJP will bag 48 percent of the vote share, while the Congress, the principal Opposition in the state, will take home 38 percent of the same.
However, the opinion poll predicts the vote share of the BJP will be lesser than the 59 percent it enjoyed in 2014. Incidentally, the poll predicts the Congress will gain vote share by six percent compared to the 2014 elections.
Incidentally, the survey also estimates 115 to 125 of the 182 seats for the BJP in the home state of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Congress, on the other hand, is expected to win 57 to 65 seats, while Hardik Patel will not win even a single seat, the survey projects.
Conducted over a period of 20 days from 25 September to 15 October, the survey reportedly covered all 182 constituencies and surveyed over 18,000 people.
According to the survey, the main issues that concern the people of Gujarat are inflation, employment, development, road connectivity, and water supply.
Have Gujaratis ‘Benefitted’ From GST, Note Ban?
Fifty-one percent of those surveyed said that they have “not benefitted” from the implementation of the Goods and Services Tax (GST). Only 38 percent of them, in the predominantly business state, believed the GST benefitted them.
Around 44 percent of the 18,000 people surveyed in Gujarat believed that they have benefitted from high-value currency notes being demonetised last year. A majority – 53 percent – believed that the note-ban did not benefit them, the survey said.
Around 66 percent of people are of the opinion that they have benefitted from Narendra Modi becoming the Prime Minister of the country.
How Caste Politics is Expected to Play
The poll predicts that the Congress has an upper-hand among 32 percent of the electorate – of which 10 percent are Muslim votes, six percent are Dalit votes, and 16 percent are Patidar votes.
The BJP, on the other hand, has an edge among 67 percent of the electorate – which includes 37 percent OBC votes and 15 percent scheduled tribe votes.
How Hardik’s Move Might Affect Polls
The survey asked respondents whether they would support the party Hardik Patel decided to lend his support to.
Only two percent responded saying that they would back the party which had the support of the Patel leader – but the survey also gave another scenario. It asked respondents what they would do if Patel chooses to support Congress, and predicted that it would result in Congress’ vote share climbing from 38 percent to 40 percent.
It is estimated that this will result in Congress gaining 5 to 10 seats, and a proportionate loss in seat share for the BJP.
A month before the Uttar Pradesh assembly elections this year, the India Today-Axis poll had predicted that the SP-Congress alliance would bag between 168 and 178 seats whereas the BJP would get between 180-19. But the poll results proved otherwise with the BJP winning 325 seats and the SP-Congress alliance securing only 54 seats.
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