The Congress is bleeding profusely in Gujarat having lost four MLAs to the BJP right at the cusp of an all-important general elections.
As the state goes to vote for Lok Sabha elections on 23 April, the State Election Commission has announced that by-elections for five Assembly seats will be held in tandem on the same day in Gujarat.
These seats include Manavadar, Unjha, Dhrangadhra and Jamnagar (Rural) which now lie vacant after incumbents Jawahar Chavda, Asha Patel Parshottam Sabariya and Vallabh Dharaviya resigned from the Assembly and the Congress party earlier this month and joined the BJP.
In Talala, sitting Congress MLA Bhagvan Barad was disqualified from the Gujarat Assembly after he was convicted in an illegal mining case by a district court.
The Congress had exceeded expectations two years ago when they managed to secure 77 seats in the Gujarat Assembly, although it could not stop the BJP from returning to power. The Congress numbers have now dropped to 71.
The BJP has already clinched Jasdan from the Congress after winning the bypoll in December last year taking their tally to 100.
Fight for Prestige at Manavadar
Jawahar Chavda, a four-time MLA, represented the Manavadar seat in Junagadh district and is considered to be an influential OBC leader from the Ahir community. He won from Manavadar in 1990, 2007, 2012 and 2017 on a Congress ticket.
On joining BJP, Chavda was immediately given a Cabinet berth and made the minister of Tourism and Fisheries departments. In 2017, Chavda was able to garner 57 percent vote for the Congress whereas the BJP candidate could only manage 38 percent.
In fact his performance in 2017 was significantly better than in 2012, when he managed to secure 45 percent of the votes and clinched the seat. With the Ahir community backing him, Chavda could take Manavadar away from the Congress.
Will Dhrangadhra Return to BJP?
In the 2017 Assembly elections, the Congress won the Dhrangadhra seat in Surendranagar district under the leadership of Parshottam Sabariya. He got 50.18 percent votes. This victory was important for the Congress as it was in the Saurashtra belt, where it gained heavily during the 2017 elections.
Sabariya was arrested in October last year in connection with an irrigation scam and was granted bail by the Gujarat High Court in February. Sabariya said he was not under pressure to join the BJP and claimed he was making the switch to develop his constituency.
The saffron party hopes to reclaim the seat it had won in the 2012 Assembly elections with 47.61 percent vote share. The seat has always swung between the Congress and the BJP. In 2007, the seat was won by the former.
Is Jamnagar (Rural) Staring at Ghar Wapsi?
Vallabh Dharviya was the last Congress MLA to resign from the party and the Assembly to join the BJP. The Congress has won the seat twice in the last three elections and in 2017 Dharviya managed to claim 47.79 percent votes.
The last time the BJP won the seat was in 2007 and it is imperative for the party to reclaim its foothold as campaigning for the by-poll and the Jamnagar LS seat will be held in tandem.
For Dharviya 23 April is a real test as he won the seat for the Congress after he was given a ticket in 2017 for the first time. The Congress is leaving no stone unturned to turn the tide in the Saurashtra belt of Gujarat where there is rising dissent among the rural population.
Will Patidar-Dominated Unjha return to BJP’s Fold?
Unjha is one of the seven Assembly seats within the Mehsana Lok Sabha constituency, currently held by the BJP. Of the seven, the BJP holds four while the Congress holds three, including Unjha. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s hometown Vadnagar also comes under the constituency.
Sitting MLA from Unjha, Asha Patel accused the Congress of factionalism and divisive politics, and not only quit the Congress but also resigned from the Assembly. Unjha was a BJP stronghold as the party had not lost an election with Narayanbhai Patel who won the seat from 1990-2012.
However, in 2017, Asha Patel orchestrated one of the major upsets claiming 54.23 percent votes, defeating Narayanbhai who could only manage 40.11 percent.
Now the big question is who will get the ticket – veteran Narayanbhai or the newcomer Asha Patel?
Talala Goes to Bypoll after MLA Gets Disqualified
Of all the seats that goes for bypolls, Talala remains the most contentious as the sitting Congress MLA Bhagvan Barad was disqualified from the Gujarat Assembly. His disqualification was swiftly announced by the house Speaker Rajendra Trivedi, as Barad was convicted in an illegal mining case by a district court and was sentenced to 2 years and nine months in prison.
His conviction was later stayed by the Sessions court, which in turn was set aside by the Gujarat High Court. Barad has challenged his disqualification before the HC.
The Congress won the seat in 2007, 2012 and 2017. In the 2017 elections Barad won comfortably having secured 58.82 percent votes. With the bypolls around the corner, Barad is pooling in support of the Ahir community, which he belongs to.
Ahirs or cow herders have a sizeable presence in Saurashtra-Kutch region, especially in Jamnagar, Gir-Somnath, Amreli, Junagadh and Kutch. The Congress has projected Barad's disqualification as the BJP's attempt to weaken the Ahir community.
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