TMC To Win West Bengal; MK Stalin To Be TN CM: CVoter Exit Polls
While the polls predict neck-and-neck fights in Kerala and Assam, the NDA is expected to grab power in Puducherry.
As the Model Code of Conduct (MCC) was lifted on Thursday, 29 April, survey agency CVoter released predictions for the Assembly elections in West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Assam, and Puducherry.
While Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress (TMC) is predicted to retain power with a thin majority, the DMK-Congress alliance is expected to win with a massive number of seats in Tamil Nadu, paving way for MK Stalin’s first stint as the chief minister.
The fate of the Left Democratic Front (LDF) led by Pinarayi Vijayan hangs in the balance as both LDF and the United Democratic Front (UDF) are expected to come very close to the majority mark.
Similar might be the case for the NDA in Assam as even the UPA is expected to come close to the majority mark. In the Union Territory of Puducherry, the NDA is expected to grab power with a comfortable majority.
Here are the exact state-wise projections:
West Bengal: Mamata To Retain Power With Thin Majority, BJP’s Massive Gains
While Mamata Banerjee’s TMC is expected to get 158 seats, just 12 above the majority mark, the BJP is expected to register massive gains by winning approximately 115 seats, a big leap from the 3 seats it had won in 2016.
While the TMC’s vote share is expected to drop from 44.9% in 2016 to 42.1% in 2021, BJP’s vote share is expected to rise from 10.2% in 2016 to 39.2% in 2021.
Tamil Nadu: DMK-Congress Alliance To Win, AIADMK-BJP To Score Below 100
While the MK Stalin-led DMK-Congress alliance is expected to win 166 seats, which is a comfortable majority over the halfway mark of 117, the AIADMK-BJP alliance is expected to win 64 seats, a massive loss from the 166 seats it won in 2016.
While the UPA’s vote share is expected to rise from 39.4% in 2016 to 46.7% in 2021, NDA’s vote share is expected to fall from 43.7% in 2016 to 39.0% in 2021.
Kerala: Vijayan’s Fate Undecided with Neck-and-Neck Between LDF & UDF
Kerala Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan’s fate hangs in the balance as the Left Democratic Front (LDF) is expected to get 74 seats compared to the 91 it won in 2016. With the majority mark at 70, the United Democratic Front (UDF) in Kerala is expected to come very close to victory with 65 seats.
While there won’t be many dents to the LDF’s vote share, the UDF vote share is expected to rise from 38.8% in 2016 to 41.4% in 2021.
Assam: Close Fight Between NDA and UPA in Assam
The north-eastern state of Assam is expecting a close fight between the NDA and the UPA with both winning seats in the range of the majority mark. While the NDA is expected to win close to 65 seats, the UPA is expected to win 59 seats with the majority mark at 63.
The UPA is expected to register a significant gain of the vote share from 31% in 2016 to 48.8% in 2021.
Puducherry: NDA to Grab Power With Comfortable Majority, UPA in Single Digit
The UPA government that fell just months ahead of the elections in the state is not expected to return to power with the alliance winning just 8 out of 30 seats in the Union Territory. Meanwhile, the NDA is expected to win 21 seats, a comfortable majority above the 15-seat mark.
While the UPA’s vote share is expected to dip from 39.5% in 2016 to 34.2% in 2021, the NDA’s vote share is expected to rise from 30.5% in 2016 to 47.1% in 2021.
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