In April 2023, the United Nations (UN) declared India to be the world’s most populous country, overtaking China as per their population estimates. However, the precise size of the population of the country is not yet known due to the indefinite delay of the census, which was scheduled to be conducted in 2021 but got postponed due to the COVID-19 pandemic. This is the first time in its 150-year history that the decennial census exercise has been delayed.
So, why is the census being delayed and what will be the impact of a delayed census on the policies and governance of (probably) the world’s most populated country?
The census is not just a population growth tracker, it provides comprehensive socio-economic data that is used in policy-making, economic planning and for various administrative purposes. It is the largest repository of statistical information on various characteristics of the Indian population – gender, age, income, occupation, migration patterns, etc. For instance, census is the only source of primary data for each village, town and ward in India. The delay in census has resulted in a major data gap as the last census was conducted in 2011 i.e. 13 years ago.
"The timely conduct of the census is vital for India due to two main reasons. First, India has a large population growing at a reasonably fast rate. Secondly, people in India keep moving. The census is the only way to track migration trends in the country."Pronab Sen, Former Chief Statistician of India, to The Quint
When will the census exercise finally start?
On 16 September 2020, the Minister of State of Home Affairs, Nityanand Rai, informed the Parliament that the 2021 census and its related field activities were postponed “until further orders” due to the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. This was the same reason given by the Minister in a written reply to a question raised in the Parliament in December 2023.
The census operations usually begin three months following the freezing of administrative boundaries. On December 30, 2023, the Additional Registrar General of India reportedly informed the states that the deadline to freeze administrative boundaries of districts, tehsils, towns etc. has been extended to June 30, 2024 (which was previously January 1, 2024). This is the ninth such extension, so the census exercise may not start before October 2024. Hence, it eliminates the possibility of the census being conducted before the 2024 General elections.
According to the Global Census Tracker of the United Nations Population Fund, 150 countries had scheduled to conduct their census enumeration in 2020 and 2021. Out of which, 94 countries, including China, Bangladesh, Nepal, etc, completed their census during the pandemic itself. Fifty-two countries had postponed the census to a new date. India is among the three countries that had postponed the census without a new date.
How is a Delayed Census Impacting Government Policies in India?
According to Sen, who is also the former chairperson of the National Statistical Commission, the census is essential for formulating public policies based on evidence. Every policy, everything that is based on the people, is dependent on the census. It forms the basis for the sample surveys used in policymaking. The sample derived from the old census data won’t be reliable because it will not be representative of the current population.
Beneficiaries could get excluded or funds could be inefficiently allocated due to the use of outdated census data.
Dr. Reetika Khera, Economics Professor at IIT Delhi told The Quint that 10 crore people are left out of the Public Distribution System (PDS) coverage due to the use of census data from 2011. The PDS should provide highly subsidised food grains to 75% population in rural areas and 50% population in urban areas under the National Food Security Act. Currently the PDS coverage is frozen at 81.35 crore. "As a result of using the outdated census figures, we have a situation where, say, a couple that was identified as eligible in 2013 gets subsidized grain; but their children, born after that happened may not be included because coverage is frozen," said Khera.
The census is the most reliable source of information on very basic indicators of wellbeing - literacy rates, educational attainment, social disparities in educational outcomes of different social groups (by gender, religion, caste groups). It provides information on age distribution that would help in planning whether child support or elderly support that should be the greater focus of policymakers. The census also collects information on housing, housing amenities such as drinking water, electricity etc. Without all this information, it is not possible to gauge what is going on.Dr. Reetika Khera, Economics Professor at IIT Delhi to The Quint
The data from this census is also important in determining the number of parliamentary and legislative seats allocated to each state. The next delimitation exercise is likely to rely on the data from the upcoming census. If the census is not done by then there could be problems in the allocation of seats to different states, according to Sen.
The Women’s Reservation Bill, which made way for 33 per cent reservation of women in legislature, can come into force only after this exercise. The delimitation exercise will also determine the number of seats that will be reserved for Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes according to their population.
"The delay is entirely explained by the political calculus of the government. It is important to have timely census data as delimitation, finance commission awards, etc depend on census data. If the 2021 census had been conducted on time, we could have asked for an early implementation of women's reservation in legislatures."Dr. Vikas Kumar, Associate Professor at School of Development, Azim Premji University to The Quint
How does the Census Take Place?
The census is carried out as per the provisions of the Census Act 1948 and Census Rules 1990 (amended in 2022) as well as other amendments made from time to time. The Office of the Registrar General and Census Commissioner of India under the Ministry of Home Affairs is responsible for conducting the census. It usually takes place in two phases:
Houselisting and Housing Census: During this phase, all buildings, houses and households for the census are identified and listed. Details on the housing conditions and amenities like drainage, toilets, cooking and bathing facilities are recorded along with certain assets possessed by the household.
The administrative boundaries need to be frozen before the first phase starts.
Population Enumeration: This usually takes place 6-8 months after the first phase. In this phase each person is enumerated and their socio-economic details are recorded – like their age, marital status, religion, education, disability etc.
It is not legally mandated that the census needs to be conducted every 10 years and the Census Act 1948 does not specify when the data has to be published. As per its provisions, the Union government has to declare its intention for conducting the census “whenever it may consider necessary or desirable to do so.”
On 28 March 2019, the Centre had notified its intent to conduct the 2021 Census in the Gazette of India. According to which, the first phase was to be conducted between April-September 2020 and the second phase was to be conducted in February 2021.
What are the Other Instances of Census Delay?
There are several instances when countries have withheld the publication of census data or have not conducted the census for an extended period of time. In Lebanon, the last census was conducted in 1932. The census exercise have been stalled in Lebanon ever since, due to the fear that a new census could lead to ethnic conflicts in the deeply sectarian country.
Similarly in Afghanistan, due to political instability, a census has not taken place since 1979. Dr. Vikas Kumar told The Quint that several European countries have resorted to using administrative records for population estimates.
Even in India, there has been a growing delay in the publication of census data according to a study by Dr. Vikas Kumar and Dr. Ankush Agrawal. Data on religion and language have been subject to delays in publication since 1951, often taking 3-8 years to be published after enumeration. Data on religion and language from the 2011 census was published only in 2015 and 2018 respectively. The Socio-Economic and Caste Census conducted in 2011 has not released data on caste till now due to “technical flaws.”
Key Features of the Next Census of India
In 2019, the Union Cabinet approved the proposal of the 16th census to be conducted at a cost of Rs. 8,754.23 crore. Along with this, the National Population Register will also be updated in the first phase for Rs. 3,941.35 crore. This will be the first digital census in the country and almost 30 lakh field functionaries will be recruited to conduct the exercise. The 2011 census involved 28 lakh field workers. Identifying and training these field functionaries will be a major task.
"The lack of familiarity of last mile government officials with the software is going to be a major challenge. The issue of data privacy is going to be another challenge. Also, cybersecurity of the overall system going to be an issue of concern. Indian census legislations fails to provide an adequate framework for conducting censuses using digital devices."Dr. Vikas Kumar, Associate Professor at School of Development, Azim Premji University to The Quint
The Census Rules were also amended in 2022 to include the provision of self-enumeration, where respondents can fill in the details themselves.
As per UN population estimates India’s population was 1.429 billion in April 2023; whereas according to the Population Projection Report released by the National Commission of Population, the country’s population is set to cross 1.4 billion in 2024. In any case, the 1.21 billion population data recorded in the last census 13 years ago, is unreliable for planning of policies in 2024.
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