On Tuesday morning, people in Odisha rubbed their eyes in disbelief as they opened their newspapers with the morning cuppa.
Every newspaper worth its masthead carried an interview with Naveen Patnaik, the man who was yet to give a full-length interview to anyone from the regional media in 20 years as the BJD President and nearly 18 years as Chief Minister of the state till now. (That most of the interviews sold to the readers as ‘exclusives’ were, in fact, written answers to written questions submitted by the journo ‘interviewing’ the Chief Minister well before the actual ‘interview’, which was no more than a photo-op with the elusive man for the reporter, is, however, a different matter.)
Inside, there were three-four pages singing paeans to the man and his achievements. Occasion: The 20th anniversary of BJD’s Foundation Day, billed as ‘Agami Odishara Vikas Jatra’ (‘March of Development for Future Odisha’), being celebrated in Puri on Tuesday.
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Ever since the unexpected jolt in the panchayat elections in February 2017, Naveen has done things that one never saw him doing before. These days, he smiles a lot, allows all and sundry (even excited co-passengers on a flight) to click selfies with him, mingles with ordinary people a lot.
Though the string of interviews splashed across newspapers on Tuesday did come as a bit of surprise, he has been far more accessible to the media post February than he has ever been in his 17-year rule.
Simultaneously, his government has launched a propaganda blitzkrieg, with full page ads showing a smiling Naveen waiving at the crowd every few weeks having become a routine.
And all this appears to be paying off. It is clear that Naveen – and his party – has recovered any ground he may have lost due to an aggressive BJP, backed by the central leadership of the party, turning the heat on him.
The surest sign of the changed political equations came when Union Petroleum and Skill Development minister Dharmendra Pradhan, the man seen as Naveen’s main challenger, ‘recalibrated’ his party’s ‘Mission-120’, spelt out by party chief Amit Shah in July 2017 to 78, just four more than a majority in the Assembly but a far cry from its tall claim, the other day.
The BJD supremo now appears to be much more in control of things than he did in the immediate aftermath of the panchayat elections.
The ruthlessness with which he sacked Dr Damodar Rout, the senior-most member of his cabinet and a Biju-era veteran, last Saturday for his indiscreet comment against Brahmins showed that Naveen has got his mojo back.
Since the beginning of his fourth term as Chief Minister, he had appeared uncharacteristically tolerant of indiscretions and infighting within the party, giving the distinct impression that he has lost his sting.
In sacking Dr Rout without so much as giving him an opportunity to resign, Naveen has proved that far from rusting, his dreaded ‘axe’ that once sent shivers down the spines of party leaders has not lost its shine after all.
The humiliation of the veteran leader was complete when he was denied an opportunity to be part of the party’s 20-year bash in Puri on Tuesday.
More than anything that Naveen has done to galvanise his party and government, however, it is the dispute with Chhattisgarh over the sharing of Mahanadi waters that has pushed a hitherto aggressive BJP on to the back foot in the state.
With the Modi government backing off its own commitment given to the Supreme Court to form the tribunal sought by Odisha under the Inter-state River Dispute Act, 1956 by 19 November, BJP state leaders are finding it extremely hard to answer the charge that the party is siding with the Raman Singh government in Chhattisgarh rather than batting for Odisha.
Together with the debacle of sorts in the Gujarat elections, this is what has led to the party scaling down its ambitions for the 2019 elections.
Of course, the BJP has not taken its foot off the pedal in attacking Naveen Patnaik – as it did on the eve of the ruling party’s 20-year bash by firing 20 questions at his government. But no one really believes that the BJP is any position to pose a serious enough challenge to Naveen and his party in the next elections.
One of the things that work against the challenger is the fact that the alleged Modi Magic has failed to make a dent in Naveen’s popularity in Odisha, as was proved in the 2014 elections. In the time since then, especially since demonetisation misadventure of 2016, BJP’s talisman has lost much of his appeal.
The Odisha unit of the party was clearly banking on Modi’s charisma to see the day for them while making that ambitious ‘Mission-120’ claim. Unlike Gujarat, the BJP just does not have the pan-Odisha organisational wherewithal to take on the well oiled BJD organisation to get anywhere close to the figure.
Another factor that could spoil the prospects of BJP is the spirited performance of the Congress under Rahul Gandhi’s leadership, which is bound to have a ripple effect in Odisha, and could well infuse some life into the moribund Congress organisation that has been in doldrums for far too long.
Even a slight revival of the Congress, the principal Opposition party in the state till the BJP usurped the distinction with a mixture of its good performance in the zila parishad elections and a propaganda onslaught, could spell doom for the BJP and make things even easier for the BJD.
The civic body elections in the state slated for early 2018 would be a reality check for both the BJP and the BJD ahead of the Assembly elections due in April-May 2019, and would give a fair idea about where the three parties stand. Till then, there is little doubt that it’s advantage BJD in Odisha.
(Writer is a senior Bhubaneswar-based journalist and has reported for the BBC for the last twenty years. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for the same.)
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