The monsoon is likely to be delayed this year as its arrival is expected on 6 June, five days after its normal onset date, the India Meteorological Department said on Wednesday, 15 May.
"This year, the statistical model forecast suggests that the monsoon onset over Kerala is likely to be slightly delayed," the IMD said. "The southwest monsoon onset is likely to set over Kerala on 6th June with a model error of plus or minus 4 days," it added.
“Conditions are becoming favourable for advance of southwest monsoon over the southern part of Andaman Sea, Nicobar Islands and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal during May 18-19.”Indian Meteorological Department
Skymet weather had on Tuesday, 14 May, said that the Southwest Monsoon this year is also likely cover some parts of Northeast India from the beginning of June.
In April, Skymet Weather predicted that the monsoon rains are going to be "below normal" this year. “The monsoon is likely to be 93 percent of the long period average (LPA),” it said.
LPA is the average rainfall between 1951 and 2000, which is 89 cm. Anything between 90-95 percent of LPA falls in the ‘below normal’ category.
The IMD and private weather agency Skymet were unanimous on the prediction of the late arrival of monsoon this year. The Skymet had said on Tuesday, 14 May that the monsoon would hit the Kerala coast on 4 June, with an error margin of two days.
If the monsoon arrives late, it will be third such instance since 2014 when it arrived on 5 June, followed by 6 June in 2015 and 8 June in 2016.
The delay in the arrival of monsoon may not necessarily have an impact on the overall rainfall. Last year, it had hit Kerala on 29 May, three days before the normal onset date. Yet, the country received 'below-normal' rainfall.
In its initial forecast released in April, the IMD had predicted a near-normal rainfall with an LPA of 96 per cent, which falls on the border of 'below-normal' and 'normal' rainfall category. On the other hand, the Skymet has predicted a 'below-normal' rainfall with an LPA of 93 per cent.
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