Should India be worried that it has fewer nuclear warheads than neighbours Pakistan and China, a subject of recent discussion?
Maybe not.
India has boosted its nuclear triad–nuclear-armed strike aircraft, land-based inter-continental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) and sea-based submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs)–and now has a strong nuclear deterrence capability vis-a-vis its nuclear-armed neighbours.
“Such [a triad] essentially increases the deterrence potential of the state’s nuclear forces,”write Group Captain Ajay Lele (retd.) and Parveen Bhardwaj of the Institute of Defence Studies and Analysis (IDSA), a New Delhi think tank.
Given that a nuclear warhead with a yield of 1 megaton can destroy almost 210 sq km, roughly three times the size of South Mumbai, it is largely inconsequential if Pakistan has 10 more warheads than India or China has 140 more, as data released by the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, a US advocacy that tracks global nuclear arsenals, reveals.
Pakistan has also been recognised as having the world’s fastest growing nuclear arsenal, which, according to this New York Times editorial, is turning South Asia into a “troubled region with growing nuclear risks.”
Having more warheads than your opponent does not necessarily translate to greater security.
This is largely because nuclear weapons are weapons of mass destruction, meant primarily to scare and deter, usually ending in a situation of strategic stalemate between countries that possess nuclear weapons. Nuclear weapons were used only twice in battle, 69 years ago, dropped on the Japanese cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, and never since. The possibility of “mutually assured destruction”, or MAD, as it is commonly known,also prevents their use in the subcontinent.
The Indian nuclear triad grows stronger
India’s nuclear-strike capability is strong because it has multiple strike aircraft, such as the nuclear-capable Anglo-French Jaguar, French Dassault Mirage 2000 and the Russian Sukhoi 30 MKI aircraft (being upgraded to carry the nuclear-tipped supersonic Brahmos missile).
Its land-based ballistic missiles include the Agni V with a range of 5,000 km, which means it can reach all of China. The Agni V can be launched from a mobile transporter or a special railway wagon, so it can be kept hidden and moved at will, according to this report. The third component of the triad is under development, nuclear-powered Arihant class submarines that are capable of launching the 700-km range K-15 Sagarika ballistic missile and the 3,000-km range K-4 ballistic missile. China possesses a nuclear triad, but Pakistan, which lacks sea-launch capability, does not.
No first use: India’s Nuclear Doctrine
No first use. That’s the declared essence of India’s nuclear doctrine, adopted in January 2003. It says India will use atomic weapons “in retaliation against a nuclear attack on Indian territory or on Indian forces anywhere”. India also declares it will not use nuclear weapons against non-nuclear weapon states.
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(Jeyaraman is Producer/News writer at Boom Live. Sethi is an analyst at IndiaSpend, a data-driven, public-interest journalism non-profit)
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