The southwest monsoon arrived over Kerala on 4 June 2026, three days later than its normal onset date. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) confirmed the onset after observing increased convective cloudiness, strengthened westerly winds, and widespread rainfall across Kerala over the preceding two days.
The monsoon’s arrival marks a critical milestone for India’s agricultural calendar, as nearly half of the country’s farmed area depends on monsoon rains.
According to Hindustan Times, the IMD stated that the monsoon is expected to advance steadily across India, likely covering most regions by the third week of June. However, the IMD also forecast that rainfall during the 2026 southwest monsoon season will be 90% of the long period average (LPA), indicating a below-normal monsoon. The department highlighted a 60% probability of deficient rainfall, defined as less than 90% of the LPA.
As highlighted by Financial Express, forecasts have raised concerns among farmers, particularly in the monsoon core zone, which includes parts of Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Maharashtra, and Odisha.
These regions are especially vulnerable due to their reliance on rain-fed agriculture. Despite the subdued outlook, farmers are preparing with cautious confidence, supported by healthy water tables and improved irrigation infrastructure following two consecutive good monsoons.
IMD officials noted that conditions are favourable for the monsoon’s further advance into central Arabian Sea, Goa, Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, and northeastern states over the next few days as coverage revealed.
The northern limit of the monsoon currently passes through Mangalore, Uthagamandalam, Kodaikanal, and Thoothukudi. Rainfall in Kerala is expected to reduce in the coming week, but a surge is anticipated in other regions.
“We are expecting a good surge during the next one week. We can expect monsoon to reach parts of Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, southern parts of Andhra Pradesh, Goa, Konkan, parts of Maharashtra, northeastern states. So it is looking good for the next few days,” said M Mohapatra, director general, IMD.
El Niño conditions are developing and are projected to influence global temperature and rainfall patterns, increasing the risk of extreme weather events in the coming months according to analysis. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has indicated an 80% likelihood of an El Niño event during June–August 2026, with probabilities for continuation until at least November near or above 90%.
Farmers in regions such as Marathwada in Maharashtra and Keonjhar in Odisha are closely monitoring rainfall patterns, as reporting indicated that inadequate rainfall in July could reduce the area under pulses and cause significant yield loss. While expanding irrigation networks have reduced some dependence on monsoon rains, a deficit still poses risks for crops like pulses, oilseeds, millets, cotton, and vegetables.
“Rainfall of 90% of the long period average is almost a drought situation. Less irrigated crops like pulses, oilseeds, millet and cotton are likely to be affected more. Even vegetables will suffer. Let us be ready to face higher food inflation pulling up the overall CPI,” said agriculture economist Ashok Gulati.
The agriculture ministry has revised its foodgrain production target for 2026–27 downward to 373.93 million tonnes, from an estimated 376.56 million tonnes in 2025–26 as details emerged. The downstream effect on food prices and rural consumption is expected to be significant if rainfall deficits persist through the kharif season.
In addition to agricultural impacts, the monsoon’s arrival and intensity have broader implications for biodiversity and local ecosystems. Scroll noted that the monsoon season is crucial for the emergence of various insect species, with naturalists observing changes in beetle and cicada populations in recent years, possibly linked to shifting rainfall patterns and climate change.
“August is the liveliest month of the monsoon when insects are most active. In preparation for Vivek’s visit, I took several short recces around the hillside before he arrived. Walking down a trail that leads from our house to a campsite known as Fairy Glen, I scanned the fern-laden trees as well as the wet leaves littering the ground for any signs of life,” wrote Stephen Alter.
Note: This article is produced using AI-assisted tools and is based on publicly available information. It has been reviewed by The Quint's editorial team before publishing.