At current growth rate, India's population is likely to peak by 2047 at an estimated 1.61 billion, following which it will decline to 1.03 billion by 2100.
This means, when the 21st century ends, India may no longer be a country of a billion people, predicts a Lancet study, published on 14 July.
However, the shrinking of population will begin only post 2046 and for the next 25-odd years India's population is expected to keep increasing.
WHY THE DECLINE?
The study, published by a group of scientists affiliated to the Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington, makes this estimation due to the assumption that all women, across countries, will have better access to two things – contraception and education.
HOW DO THESE TWO FACTORS IMPACT POPULATION?
Access to education and contraception is tied to an important metric when it comes to studying population – Total Fertility Rate.
Total Fertility Rate (TFR) is a metric that helps us understand how many children a woman must have in order to replenish a country's population.
If the TFR is lower than 2.1, then a country will start witnessing decline in population.
“In our model, in a population where all females have 16 years of education and 95% of females have access to contraception, the global TFR was projected to converge to 1.41 (1.35–1.47). The difference between a convergent TFR of 1.75 or 1.41 is profound,” The Hindu reported, quoting the scientists.
INDIA TO REMAIN MOST POPULOUS
However, India will continue to remain the most populous country, even after the number of people start shrinking.
Nigeria, China, United States and Pakistan will remain the four other largest countries – in terms of population.
(With inputs from The Hindu)
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