Pahalgam Attack: Nawaz Sharif, PM Shehbaz, Bilawal Bhutto, Imran Khan, Asim Munir

The escalation with India has come at a delicate moment for the Pakistan government headed by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif. Even though all the political actors in Pakistan are likely to close ranks behind the army and the government in case there is a conflict with India, there are key differences of opinion between them. For instance, on one hand Bilawal Bhutto of the Pakistan People's Party has made a provocative statement that "blood will flow if India stops river waters". On the other hand, a report in Pakistani newspaper The Express Tribune reported that former PM Nawaz Sharif has advised his brother, PM Shehbaz Sharif, to resolve the tensions with India diplomatically. So where do the key political actors in Pakistan stand regarding escalation with India and what are the reasons behind their positions?It is important to understand that Shehbaz Sharif isn't PM of Pakistan due to his own popularity but due to two accidents. First, Nawaz Sharif being removed as PM and disqualified from holding office. Nawaz Sharif was always the undisputed national leader of the Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) and Shehbaz Sharif has been the main face of the party in Punjab. He has been the CM of Punjab for 12 years spread across four non-consecutive terms. Second, the Pakistan army's decision to remove Imran Khan as PM in 2022 and cobble together a coalition of erstwhile rivals PML-N and the Pakistan People's Party headed by Asif Ali Zardari and Bilawal Bhutto. Due to these two factors, he is greatly dependent on the Pakistan military's backing for survival. Therefore, it will be very difficult for Sharif to take a stand at variance with that of the Pakistan army. However, his brother and former PM Nawaz Sharif will also have a say in the matter. Pahalgam Attack: Why Pakistan Provoked Despite Modi Govt's Expected ResponseNawaz Sharif has had a uneven relationship with the Pakistan army. He came into prominence in the early 1980s with the blessings of the then military dictator Zia-ul-Haq. He first became the finance minister of Punjab, then the chief minister and finally Prime Minister soon after Zia's death. However a little over a decade later, Sharif was removed as PM by another General - Pervez Musharraf in 1999. That event changed Sharif's approach towards the military and made him an opponent of military intervention in Pakistan's politics. In future instances, Sharif is said to have refused to strike deals with the military against his rivals PPP. However, due to the cases against him during Imran Khan's premiership, Sharif once again took the military's help to remove Khan and install his brother as PM in 2022. Despite this collusion, Sharif fears that a conflict with India could give the military an opportunity to directly capture power or at least assume an even more important role at the expense of the civilian leadership. This is the main reason behind Sharif reported advise to the PM to resolve matters with India diplomatically. There is another reason for this. Sharif is seen as a peacenik on India and reportedly retains a backchannel with influential individuals in India. Bilawal Bhutto Zardari's recent "blood will flow" threat isn't his first such statement. After the G20 meet in Srinagar, Bilawal had said that Pakistan will give an "unforgettable response". In 2022, he had also called PM Narendra Modi "butcher of Gujarat". Bilawal Bhutto Zardari and the PPP are known to be extremely hawkish on India, compared to the other major political actors in Pakistan - Nawaz Sharif and Imran Khan. Among the major Pakistani politicians, Bilawal is also one of the most vocal when it comes to Kashmir. There is a history to this. PPP founder and former PM Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto became Pakistan's dominant politician in the aftermath of Pakistan's defeat in the 1971 war with India. He is also said to have initiated Pakistan's 'Bleed India by a Thousand Cuts' policy formulated as revenge for the creation of Bangladesh. During Benazir Bhutto's tenure as PM in the early 1990s Pakistan is said to have intensified its support for insurgent groups in Kashmir.This was a seen as a way to compensate for the Bhutto government's reduced support to pro-Khalistan militants in Punjab.The PPP also feels that a possible escalation with India and its consistently hardline stand may help it gain traction across Pakistan and help overcome its weakness in certain areas. PPP's base is mainly in Sindh, South Punjab and Balochistan. It is weak in North Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. North and Central Punjab account for a large number of seats and being weak here has traditionally put PPP at a disadvantage.Politically, Imran Khan stands to lose the most in the eventuality of a conflict with India. Khan is presently engaged in a major power struggle with the Pakistan military and the present civilian leadership. There is a great deal of anger against the army due to his incarceration and the army's allegedly partisan role in the 2024 elections. However, if there is a conflict then the public is likely to rally around the military and this may help restore its credibility to some extent. On 29 April, Imran Khan issued a statement through his lawyer calling the Pahalgam attack a "false flag operation". However, unlike the line taken by the Pakistan Army chief and politicians like Bilawal Bhutto, Khan didn't blame India as a whole and pinned it on Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the RSS. Pakistan Army chief General Asim Munir is known to be a hardliner on India. This was made clear in a recent speech in which he pitched the conflict as a "Hindu vs Muslim" one. Munir sees the conflict as an opportunity to restore his credibility that has suffered due to the army's tussle with Imran Khan. Read more on General Munir's calculations in this article. A lot would depend on the nature of retaliation that India chooses and how it is perceived in Pakistan. The Pakistani version of the 2016 surgical strike by India was that it was a "skirmish" along the LOC and that it lead to the death two Pakistani soldiers. India's claims are that the strike was deep into Pakistan Occupied Kashmir and that the casualties were much higher (35 to 50). Domestically within Pakistan, the strike neither helped nor harmed the image of the then PM Nawaz Sharif and Army chief Raheel Sharif. Then there was the 2019 strike in Balakot - where the Indian and Pakistani claims diverge even more. India again claimed high number of terrorist casualties, Pakistan said that "only a few trees were harmed". Then the shooting down of an Indian aircraft and capture of Wing Commander Abhinandan is seen in Pakistan as some kind of a win. Irrespective of India's claims, the entire episode did boost the image of then PM Imran Khan. Khan's speech and the handing over of the pilot to India is seen as a diplomatic win for him in Pakistan. Therefore, whatever happens, it is clear that the existing Pakistani civilian and military establishment will use it to strengthen its own position domestically.The only problem is the economy. Pakistan's economy is expected to grow at 2.5 percent in financial year 2025, the same as the growth rate in 2024. The economy had a minor negative growth rate of -0.2 percent.The only problem is the economy. Pakistan's economy is expected to grow at 2.5 percent in financial year 2025, the same as the growth rate in 2024. The economy had a minor negative growth rate of -0.2 percent. Revival of the economy has been one of the major promises of the present Pakistan government and even the military was counting in it as a means to restore its image. The army and ministry of defence had even set up an economic advisory unit for this purpose even though it didn't fall under its domain. Any conflict with India is going to prove economically harmful to Pakistan. Under US President Donald Trump, any help from the US is also unlikely. The only option would be China and a lot would then depend on the position Beijing takes. Imran Khan was seen to be pro-China and anti-America and it is alleged that the coup against Khan in 2022 had the backing of the then Joe Biden administration. Chinese help to Pakistan, therefore, would come at some cost to the present Pakistan government. Pahalgam Attack Linked to Gen Asim Munir? Answer Lies in His Ties With 2 Men

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Pahalgam Attack: Sharifs, Bilawal, Imran, Munir - Who Stands Where on India?

Parties in Pakistan will close ranks behind the army if there's a conflict with India but there are key differences.