If the 2017 UP elections were to be held right now, 30% of the voters would support the Samajwadi Party (SP), 27% would vote for the BJP and 26% would root for the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), according to opinion poll conducted by ABP News-Lokniti, Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS).
The Congress party , which has been vigorously campaigning in the state, is currently nowhere in the race, with only 5% of voters opting for it.
While the BJP is likely to get 124-134 seats, the BSP can fetch 103-113. Congress is lagging behind with 8-14 seats and Others in the fray would get 6-12. The poll was conducted between 23 July and 7 August with a sample size of over 4000 people.
The survey also reveals that both Samajwadi Party’s Akhilesh Yadav and Bahujan Samajwadi Party’s Mayawati are the people’s choice for the next chief minister.
In the emerging ground picture from the state for the 2017 polls, both the candidates would garner 24% favour from the people.
Upper Caste Votes With BJP
According to the survey, 55% of the upper caste votes in UP are with the BJP, while 15% seem to be supporting SP, and only 9% with Mayawati’s BSP.
The upper castes in UP form only 20% of all voters and hence their decision cannot entirely decide the result.
Yadav Voters Support SP
The Yadav voters, however, are with the Samajwadi Party, according to the survey. All the other parties appear to be struggling to get the Yadav vote.
After analysing the other OBC vote bank, the survey concluded 38% support for the BJP, while BSP seems to be getting 23% and SP 19% support.
They form 33% of the total vote bank and their support to the BJP could negatively impact the SP.
Jatav Voters Appear to be Rooting for BSP
Nearly three-fourths of the Jatavs are behind Mayawati’s BSP, while their numbers for the BJP and SP are abysmal.
According to political experts, the Una incident and Rohith Vemula’s suicide are going to be decisive factors against the BJP.
Non-Jatav Dalits With Mayawati
In terms of votes from non-Jatav dalits, the BSP’s recovery is impressive with 56% voters rooting for the party.
Muslim Voters Supporting SP
While the BSP is doing well with two communities, Muslim voters in the state are favoring the SP.
Experts talking about the poll on ABP news, however, warned that the situation could change in the next few months as this poll was conducted between July and August.
Source: ABP news
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