Sri Lanka’s High-Stakes Political Battle, Behind the Scenes

In a surprise move, Sri Lankan President Maithripala Sirisena on Friday, 26 October, removed his faction out of the ruling coalition government, ousting Ranil Wickremesinghe from prime ministership and appointing Mahinda Rajapaksa in his place.A highly placed source in Wickremesinghe’s legal team told The Quint that the former prime minister’s camp will not only be moving court against his removal, but will also pursue an impeachment motion against President Sirisena.The collapse of Sri Lanka’s first-ever coalition government, and the events that unfolded after 26 October, has plunged the island nation into unprecedented political turmoil.What exactly has led to these events? Is Wickremesinghe’s removal constitutional? What role does that RAW ‘assassination plot’ have to play? Here’s a primer on the crisis.A senior minister under the then-president Mahinda Rajapaksa’s cabinet, Maithripala Sirisena had stunned the entire country by crossing over to the Opposition in December 2014. The joint Opposition led by Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumarathunga and Ranil Wickremesinghe declared that Rajapaksa’s once-trusted aide Sirisena would take on the strongman.In the Presidential elections held the following year, Sirisena defeated Rajapaksa. The United National Party (UNP) and the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) came together to form a coalition ‘national unity’ government with Sirisena as the president and Wickremesinghe as the prime minister.An elected government was in place, for the first time after the bitter civil war. At that point, the media dubbed the elections an event in which Sri Lanka was experiencing ‘real democracy.’ However, this lasted only until 26 October 2018.A few months ago, in April 2018, a no-confidence motion was moved against Prime Minister Wickremesinghe. Just hours before the vote on the floor of the assembly, nearly 15 MPs belonging to Sirisena’s SLFP declared their support to the motion.However, Wickremesinghe went on to win the motion with all the UNP MPs voting for him, along with elected representatives from minority parties, including the Tamil National Alliance.Speaking to The Quint, a source close to the Wickremesinghe camp said that:“Just six months ago, Wickremesinghe won the no-confidence motion. Soon after this, there were rumours that Rajapaksa and Sirisena would come together and unify to gain power. This is an outcome of that process.”On Sunday, 28 October, Sirisena said that Wickremesinghe was sacked due to his "arrogant" behaviour, and asserted that Rajapaksa has been made the new premier in strict accordance with the Constitution.In his first address to the nation after the dramatic move to sack Wickremesinghe on Friday night, Sirisena said Wickremsinghe's political conduct, since the victory in 2015, was unbecoming.“He appeared to treat Sri Lanka’s future as a joyride for a coterie of people around him who had no sense of the common man’s thinking. He completely destroyed the concept of good governance while corruption and waste became rampant. He was making arrogant arbitrary decisions making a mockery of collective responsibility. There was a huge gap in policy agreement between the two of us. I believe the cultural and policy differences between us contributed to this political and economic crisis.”Maitripala SirisenaOn 26 October, Sirisena sacked Wickremesinghe and appointed Rajapaksa as the new prime minister. The very next day, he suspended Parliament till 16 November after Wickremesinghe sought an emergency session to prove his majority.According to the source in the Wickremesinghe camp, Sirisena’s move to remove Wickremesinghe was not only unconstitutional, but he also pointed out that Wickremesinghe was “very much” the prime minister, even when Rajapaksa was also appointed. He also alleged that Sirisena chose a Friday because the courts will be on leave over the weekend.Viran Corea, a Sri Lankan constitutional lawyer, also pointed out on Twitter that “due constitutional process” was not followed in the appointment of the new prime minister.Speaking to The Quint, later in the day, Corea explained: “Once a prime minister is appointed, his office is vacated only if he dies, resigns, ceases to be a Member of Parliament, or if Cabinet stands dissolved upon Parliament rejecting the Statement of Government Policy or the Appropriation Bill or passing a vote of no-confidence in the Government – only then can a prime minister be removed. When such criteria do not apply, then no other member of Parliament can be sworn in as the prime minister.”Viran Corea, Constitutional LawyerMost importantly, the Sri Lankan Constitution points out that even if a coalition ceases to exist – like in this case – the only consequence will be that the number of ministries must revert to the “constitutionally mandated norm”, Corea said.The highly placed source in Wickremesinghe’s legal team told The Quint that while moving court against his removal is one of the options available to them, the camp is also looking to pursue an impeachment motion against President Sirisena. “The camp also recognises the pressing need for the Speaker to convene the Parliament so that the legally elected prime minister can prove that he has the confidence of the house,” the source added.Speaker Favours Ousted PMIncidentally, Speaker Karu Jayasuriya must convene the Parliament assembly, so that the ousted prime minister can prove his majority in the Parliament.In letter to Sirisena, Speaker Karu Jayasuriya backed the ousted prime minister's request to retain his privileges and security until another candidate could prove a majority, saying it was "democratic and fair."Jayasuriya also questioned the president's decision to suspend parliament till 16 November, saying it will have "serious and undesirable" consequences on the country.But Does Rajapaksa Have Confidence of the House?Speaking to The Quint, the source claimed that the decision to suspend the Parliament till later in November was to garner enough support for the Rajapaksa camp.“If one makes an educated guess, the steps taken by Sirisena indicate that the Parliament has been suspended for now so as to get the time to win people over to their side. They did not move the no-confidence motion now as they know who would have won majority support. They now have 20 days to gain people over to their side. The UNP can win over any no-confidence motion,” the source said.In a statement on 28 October, President Sirisena added that Wickremesinghe had “grossly violated” the principles of good governance, and his negligence in investigating the “strong plot” to assassinate Sirisena had forced the president to appoint a new government.Sirisena, on 16 October, had accused India’s Research and Analysis Wing (RAW) of plotting his assassination. Sirisena told ministers at a cabinet briefing that the Indian intelligence agency was “trying to kill” him, but “Prime Minister Modi may not be aware of the plan,” The Hindu reported.“There is also an involvement of a Cabinet Minister in this plot to assassinate me. Furthermore, there has been tremendous pressure on investigations. There were instances of some responsible officers of the Attorney General’s Department evading their investigation duties. Under these political problems, economic troubles and the strong plot to assassinate me, the only alternative open to me was to invite former President Mahinda Rajapaksa and appoint him as prime minister to form a new government.”President SirisenaHowever, the source pointed out that the assassination plot was only an “allegation” and the investigation does “not merit or tally” the removal of Wickremesinghe from prime ministership.“An investigation can find out who is responsible for it. Let us assume that investigation did not take place. Then, there is a legal course of action which the President can undertake. He can file a writ of mandamus to compel the authorities to take proper course of action. Even if this were a case, you cannot remove the prime minister.”Source in Wickremesinghe’s legal team to The QuintIndia on Sunday, 28 October, said it was closely following the political developments in Sri Lanka and hoped that democratic values and constitutional process would be respected in the island nation."India is closely following the recent political developments in Sri Lanka. As a democracy and a close friendly neighbour, we hope that democratic values and constitutional process will be respected," External Affairs Ministry Spokesperson Raveesh Kumar said.He said India will continue to extend its developmental assistance to the friendly people of Sri Lanka. India has been involved in a number of projects in the island nation.(With inputs from PTI, The Hindu)

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Sri Lanka’s High-Stakes Political Battle, Behind the Scenes

The events that unfolded after 26 October have put the island nation back in political turmoil. Here’s a primer.