Explained: Why Abrogation of Article 370 Has Failed to Bring 'Peace' in Kashmir

A defence expert told The Quint that the past five years have shown that in the Valley, 'violence shapeshifts'.

(Note: The byline has been withheld at the request of the author.)

Nitin Jain, a 38-year software engineer from West Bengal, had promised to take his wife to Kashmir for that 'once-in-a-lifetime' trip. For 12 years of their marriage, he couldn't keep his promise.

But, on 20 April, when the Jain family landed in Srinagar, that long wait was forgotten—and they rejoiced for what they described as their "most exciting holiday."

"We had never seen such a beautiful place—every corner of the Valley is breathtaking," Jain recalled. Their excitement though was short-lived as the scenic heaven turned to bedlam on 22 April when armed terrorists killed 26 tourists in the Baisaran meadow of Pahalgam in the deadliest attack on tourists in Kashmir in more than two decades.

"Since the TV channels had been talking about the return of peace in Kashmir, and the surge in tourists, I thought it was safe to visit with my family. I was wrong," Jain told The Quint.

The Jain family cut their trip short and managed to return to safety.

Rewind to 5 August 2019, when the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led government at the Centre unilaterally revoked Article 370 of the Indian Constitution that granted limited autonomy to the region. The state was divided into two union territories—Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh.

New Delhi argued that the nullification of the special status was necessary to end terrorism and bring peace in Kashmir.

However, over six years later, the Valley’s fragile peace remains in tatters. Despite some improvement in the security situation, tall claims regarding the alleged benefits of scrapping Article 370 appear to be more cosmetic than substantial. What happened? We explain.

How an Uptick in Tourists Projected 'Normalcy'

Experts argue that, despite the superficial calm, the rising anger and alienation among the people of Kashmir due to the unilateral legislation and administrative changes have only "bolstered the conditions" for the resurgence of militancy. 

To project "normalcy" in the region, New Delhi has been promoting Kashmir as a safe tourism and real estate haven for thousands of tourists and businesses. It has facilitated the increase of incoming tourists by improving local infrastructure and ensuring security. Over the years, tourist destinations such as Gulmarg, Sonamarg, Pahalgam, Yousmarg, Gurez, and other areas have seen a surge in construction activities to accommodate more tourists.

According to official government figures, tourist footfall in 2024 reached approximately 3.5 million, marking a significant increase from 2.71 million in 2023 and 2.67 million in 2022. In just the first three months of 2025, over half a million tourists had already visited the region.

For the first time, the government opened the borders to tourists, launching several initiatives along the International Border to boost tourism at the zero line and offer visitors a firsthand experience of life near the frontier. The government also invited several foreign diplomats and delegations to showcase the refurbished 'Naya Kashmir'.

Making the number of tourists and thriving tourism the barometers for "normalcy", however, made tourists vulnerable, believes Praveen Donthi, a senior analyst for the International Crisis Group, a think-tank based in New Delhi.

“The narrative of a peaceful, stable Kashmir also lulled security forces into complacency, leading them to assume that militants would never target tourists,” he added.

Did Abrogation Rein in Militancy?

New Delhi claimed that there is a significant decline in terror related incidents. It’s a fact that the overall situation, since 2019, has been relatively better than in previous years. Tourism was at its peak, shutdown calls were zero, and law and order remained under control. 

Post the abrogation of Article 370, when security forces tightened their grip on militants in Kashmir and reduced their numbers to two-digits, the militancy spilled over to Jammu region, a Hindu-dominated area, despite very little public support.

However, militants, allegedly sponsored by neighbouring Pakistan, continued to inflict heavy casualties on both civilians and security forces alike.

The region witnessed several deadly ambushes, with the Army losing many top officers, including elite paratroopers. The security apparatus is still unable to overtake the militants in the region completely. 

With the security apparatus focused primarily on Jammu, an attack like the one in Pahalgam came as a complete surprise. The attack has raised a question mark on the abrogation of special status having changed the situation in Kashmir for the better. 

The attack, many believe, underlines that New Delhi’s unilateral decisions in August, 2019 have not led to lasting peace and stability in the region as the Centre anticipated.

The fact that militants continue to target civilians and security personnel raises uncomfortable questions: If Article 370 was the barrier to peace, why does violence persist even after its removal?

A defence expert based in Srinagar, speaking on condition of anonymity, argues that even though there is a noticeable decline in the overall violence since 2019, the past five years have shown that in the Valley, "violence shapeshifts".

He says that militant groups are readapting to increasingly changing scenarios and making it difficult for agencies to track them. 

“In Pahalgam, for instance, the agencies could find no trace of any communication signal within the 5 km radius. It means the attack took place with a lot of planning—and in a way that frustrates the attempts of the forces to find them."

Srinagar-Based Defence Expert

This quality of the militant plotting becoming so undetectable is what makes it actually so dangerous, he said, adding  “It doesn’t matter whether the overall attacks are increasing or not."

How Militancy in Kashmir Has 'Shapeshifted'

The militants have indeed changed their strategy. Unlike Kashmir’s social media-driven militancy, where every new joinee would announce his recruitment in militant ranks by releasing a photo on the internet, today’s militancy is anonymous, secret, and even casual. 

This “new phase” of militancy—also known as “hybrid militancy”—is quite challenging, according to police sources. The hybrid militants are part-time militants, who are being tasked to carry out attacks on soft targets like civilians, and then return to their normal activity.

Political experts argue that New Delhi’s iron fist policy hasn't worked in Delhi’s favour. It has instead complicated the situation further. 

“The denial of human and political rights will always generate disaffection. However, that doesn’t justify terrorism,” Radha Kumar, a former member of a Kashmiri interlocutor panel, told The Quint.

Additionally, Donthi maintains that political parties in the Valley keep reminding New Delhi that it’s essential to take the people along if militancy is to be managed.

“New Delhi, however, doesn’t pay any heed to them,” he said.

“All mainstream leaders have been marginalised, along with separatist leaders, which disconnects New Delhi from the pulse of the people, leading to disastrous consequences."

Praveen Donthi

He further said that there can never be a durable solution without engaging with the Kashmiri people.

Following the revocation of the special status, the Central government implemented sweeping security measures to "eliminate terror." 

Separatists were booked under anti-terror and preventive detention laws, while social media users and journalists were summoned for their "anti-national" posts.

With little space left for any critical voices, it appears the government has focused on addressing the symptoms rather than tackling the root causes of unrest and alienation.

So what can be done? To remove the alienation, New Delhi needs to open dialogue with the people, including the relevant stakeholders, and keep them on board. 

Punitive measures such as punishing militants' families despite their non-involvement, dismissing government employees over alleged 'anti-national' activities without giving them a chance to be heard, denying passports to critical voices, and curbing dissent, media, and religious freedoms have become common practices.

At a time when New Delhi should have capitalised on the widespread public outrage in the Valley against the Pahalgam massacre, the campaign of blowing up militants’ houses will alienate the people further, political parties in Kashmir argue.