Explained: Is California Fire a Wake-Up Call for Climate Change’s Growing Risks?

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Wildfires, fuelled by gusts of wind exceeding 145 kilometres per hour, have been tearing through urban residential areas in Los Angeles, California since 6 January. The relentless blaze has forced thousands of residents to flee their homes with little warning and killed at least 27 people till now.

Even as firefighters are struggling to control the flames as of Tuesday, 14 January, more bad news looms — Santa Ana winds are expected to worsen fire conditions over the next three days in Los Angeles and Ventura counties as the region battles historic, deadly blazes..

While wildfires are common in Southern California, fires of this magnitude in January are unusual. However, experts warn that, given recent trends, the state may need to brace for longer and more intense fire seasons in the future.

“November, December, now January – there’s no fire season; it’s fire year,” California Governor Gavin Newsom said during a press conference on 7 January.

What’s fueling these unseasonal January fires? Is climate change to blame?

Santa Ana Winds and Fire Season in Southern California

One of the big reasons the Los Angeles fires are growing so out of control is the Santa Ana winds blowing across the region.

Explaining this phenomenon, Neil M Donahue, Professor of Chemistry, Engineering and Public Policy at Steinbrenner Institute for Environmental Education and Research at Carnegie Mellon University, in Pittsburgh, tells The Quint, "These are seasonal winds that occur every winter in Southern California."

"In winter, air can get very cold over the high-altitude desert (i.e. the Mojave Desert), and thus dense. Under the right conditions, the heavy dense air will flow down towards the ocean. These downslope winds towards the ocean are the Santa Ana winds."

Neil M Donahue

The Santa Ana winds can blow at speeds of up to 161 kilometres per hour, making them exceptional at fanning flames and scattering embers.

"As they come down the mountains, they can get compressed and warm up, making it better at desiccating vegetation that can fuel fires," Raghu Murtugudde, climate scientist and professor at the Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, tells The Quint.

Why Are These Unseasonal Wildfires Occurring in Winter?

Explaining why it has been so hard to contain the current fires, Donahue, who studies the impact of human activity on the atmosphere and the climate, says,

"The winds blow embers – that has been a huge part of the story in Southern California. Embers can be lofted and blown thousands of meters. This makes establishing fire lines extremely difficult. At the same time, the fires at the surface can work upwards in the valleys (for example, in the Santa Monica and San Gabriel mountains) – and then hop over into the next valley near the ridge line. This is how both the Pacific Palisades and Eaton fires have spread so far."

Pacific Palisades, a swanky neighbourhood in Los Angeles, was the first area to be affected by the current fires. The Eaton Fire – not as spread out as the Palisades fire – is another active wildfire burning in the Altadena area of Los Angeles County.

"It also makes it difficult to deploy airborne firefighting equipment when the winds are too fierce."

Neil M Donahue

Although fire season in Southern California is typically seen as lasting from May to October, recent studies show that this season is lengthening, with some areas of the state already facing year-round fire risks.

Experts note that January is indeed an unusual time for fires, as winter is usually wetter.

"It is important to note that there has been virtually no rainfall in LA County since last spring, making this the second-driest period recorded in the past century," says Jatan Buch, researcher in the Department of Earth and Environmental Engineering at Columbia University.

This unseasonably dry conditions combined with seasonal winds created optimum conditions for such large flames. "Fires are always a complicated mix of human and environmental (sometimes human-altered) factors," adds Donahue.

Is Climate Change to Blame for the Fires?

What does climate change have to do with fires like this? The short answer, Raghu Murtugudde says, is that "fire season is lasting longer because of climate change."

"Any fire that is started by natural or even artificial causes can explode quickly. When you combine fire with a dry season and hot air, you can have compound events which amplify the impact."

Raghu Murtugudde

Donahue, on the other hand, says, attributing one cause to a complex phenomenon like this "is also super hard." But, he adds, "one of the clear consequences of climate change is that extreme events become much more frequent in 'new normal' conditions."

This also includes dry regions getting drier while wet regions getting wetter.

Simply put, a hotter planet leads to increased evaporation which, in turn, requires more precipitation to maintain the balance in the atmosphere. In wetter regions, this means more precipitation than evaporation, while drier areas experience more evaporation than precipitation. As both processes intensify, their extremes are stretched even further.

"On average, Los Angeles is a dry place. So, droughts and dry spells of all length are getting more common."

Neil M Donahue

"Now, to me, 'dry' is a consequence of 'hot' but not necessarily in every location. So, places where that is especially true are most vulnerable to the compound effects of climate change," he adds.

Compound effect of climate change is the interconnected and cumulative impacts of various climate-related changes that amplify each other over time. For example, rising temperatures can lead to more intense wildfires, droughts, and storms, while also accelerating the melting of ice caps and sea-level rise.

Are Incidents of Wildfires Increasing?

There is no straightforward answer to this.

Data from Global Forest Watch reveals that forest fires led to a concerning loss of 11.91 million hectares of tree cover worldwide in 2024, representing more than one-third of the total tree cover loss for the year.

On the other hand, overall data shows that globally wildfires have actually gone down. In a paper published in Science, researchers note, “Unexpectedly, global burned area declined by 25 percent over the past 18 years, despite the influence of climate.”

But there's more to it. The researchers point out that this is largely driven by a decline in burn rates in grasslands and savannas as a result of the expansion and intensification of agriculture. Meanwhile, other parts of the world have seen higher incidents of fires.

Extreme wildfires in Canada were responsible for around 65 percent of the fire-related tree cover loss and accounted for over 27 percent of the global total.

"At least in the US, it is not obvious that the number of fires has increased over time, but the area burned has definitely risen steadily over the past 40 years," says Donahue.

"It is plausible that the number has not changed all that much because of the complex mix of human and natural causes, but the expectation of more and dryer fuel in a hotter climate is consistent with the greater area burned once fires do start."

Neil M Donahue

"It is reasonable to speculate that this increase in area has something to do with the hotter and dryer conditions in fire-prone regions, so it is plausible that this is a direct consequence of climate change," he adds.

Experts warn that these disasters and relentless fires should not be dismissed but recognised as warning signs of a deeper problem.

Extreme heatwaves are now five times more likely than they were 150 years ago, and their frequency is expected to increase as the planet continues to warm, according to the World Resource Institute.

Moreover, when forests burn, they release carbon stored in the trees and soil. As these fires grow in size and occur more frequently, they emit more carbon, intensifying climate change and fueling a vicious cycle of "fire-climate feedback."

This is a developing story and will be updated as more information becomes available.