"If what Aamir is doing works, it will disrupt the industry."
This is what filmmaker Anurag Kashyap told The Quint days after Sitaare Zameen Par hit the big screen—with no clarity on whether or not the film will get an OTT release.
In the lead-up to the film, Aamir Khan sparked a debate by laying bare Bollywood's post-pandemic troubles in drawing audiences to the theatre. The actor-producer pinned the blame on OTT releases, saying, ”If I am selling you a product, and if you don’t buy it, I will anyway come and drop it at your home after eight weeks."
"According to me, that window is too small,” Khan said at an event in Mumbai.
"We are killing our own business. In a price-sensitive country like India, this matters a big deal."Aamir Khan
Departing from today's norm, Sitaare Zameen Par doesn't have a date for an OTT release even days after its release on 18 June. So, the big question is—will this experiment work?
Only Aamir Can Pull This Off
On expected lines, the Multiplex Association of India called the film's cinemas-only move "a rallying moment for multiplexes and single screen theatres" in India.
However, even some of the industry veterans The Quint spoke with sounded hopeful.
"I am with Aamir. The film should play in the theatre as long as it can. Only once they have done that run—and sustained that run—where there is a demand for them to actually watch them on OTT, only then it should go on OTT,” said filmmaker Vikramaditya Motwane.
Many films now run in theatres for not more than eight weeks, primarily because of pre-signed OTT agreements.
Motwane added that the idea of releasing films on OTT approximately eight weeks after a theatrical release is based on the expectation that even a successful film “will only run for four to six weeks”—an assumption he called “ridiculous”.
"When you take the money upfront as streaming fees to fund your production, they can dictate terms. Why are we letting OTT platforms dictate terms?" he asked.
Trade analyst Taran Adarsh agreed with Motwane.
"I don’t think Aamir's move affects the longevity of the film. If the audience knows the film isn't going to release on OTT, they will go and watch it in theatres."Taran Adarsh
Filmmaker Vasan Bala, who called Aamir's move "courageous", said, "On paper, it is always risky, and nothing is viable, but what is viable anymore?"
How OTT Came to Dominate
Talking about the evolution of how films are getting financed and distributed today, Bala pointed to a shift from studios that once streamlined the process, to satellite channels, and now to OTT platforms.
“They are ruling because, in many ways, they now decide whether a film gets made at all. The moment the film gets made, they want it on their platform. So, they tell us to do it at the earliest," he explained.
In such a scenario, the filmmaker added, one listens to whoever has the money. “But Aamir Khan is saying, 'Let me try and break that pattern... It’s a huge thing to go against the tide in this scenario."
"The OTT platforms will lose their might and their power to dictate if more producers start following Aamir," added trade analyst Komal Nahta. However, he added that he's "100 percent sure Aamir will be approached by OTT platforms" to release Sitaare Zameen Par.
"The film’s business will prove that the eight-week window from theatre to OTT is too small. It should be a minimum of six months," Nahta claimed.
A bold move like this, however, isn't one that every filmmaker or production house is willing—or able—to take on, as media expert and author Vanita Kohli-Khandekar pointed out. "There are so many variables at play: What is the budget of the film? Which studio is making it? What is their cash flow position? A Dharma and a Yash Raj Films has a great balance sheet," said Kohli-Khandekar told The Quint.
In contrast, small-budget films need cash upfront to secure their investment. They are forced to spend money on theatrical releases if they want only an OTT deal, she said.
“It's tricky for smaller or medium budget films. When an OTT platform acquires a film, a theatrical release is built into their contracts, and for that one requires funds. If it’s a small film, they pay rental to the theatre, and the theatre won’t keep the film for more than four days or a week, and that’s the cost of distribution. The question is where you stand in the ecosystem—it's not a question of viability."
Roughly 60-70 percent of a film’s revenue in India comes through box-office collections, which, in turn, determine the value of all other monetisation avenues.
In the post-pandemic times, the box-office earnings of even some of the biggest big-budget films have been dismal. According to the 2024 Ormax Box Office report, the total annual gross box office in India stood at Rs 11,833 crore. Footfall, however, was lower than the last two years, and continue to remain lower than pre-pandemic levels. In 2024, there was a drop of six percent from the previous year.
"We have been stuck at Rs 12,000 crore gross box-office for almost five years."Vanita Kohli-Khandekar
Neither the box office nor OTT platforms alone can generate 100 percent of the revenue or guarantee profits—regardless of whether it’s a small or big-budget film, and so theatrical and OTT releases work hand-in-hand for a film’s revenue, added Kohli-Khandekar.
“I am not of the belief that streaming has created any issues. They have created opportunities which people are using. It’s like how television has created an opportunity,” she said.
Can Pay-Per-View Work in India?
Apart from OTT-free release, there is another alternative model that Aamir Khan is said to be considering: A pay-per-view model, mostly by using YouTube as the streaming platform.
"It will depend on what kind of a deal one cracks. Is it going to be on YouTube with a standard advertising model? Is it going to be pay-per-view or is it going to be supported by ads? There are so many ways one can do this."Vikramaditya Motwane
Bala added that, if it were to work, filmmakers who don’t have the same resources or big production houses backing them, can begin to “hope and dream,” especially because of the democratisation that comes with the internet.
"Film distribution has hit a roadblock. The beginning is going to be tough, but at least Aamir has raked up an important topic. Those who can go independent, can. Maybe in a few years, this will become a legitimate business model."Vasan Bala
Where Filmmakers Need to Step Up
Many of the experts The Quint spoke with pointed out that the fault lies within the industry, too.
For one, Taran Adarsh said, "Why not blame ourselves for the content we are making? We are making sub-standard content. We are making content that caters to Bandra to Versova. What happened to the rest of the India?”
Citing the success of films like Pushpa, Stree 2, and Chhaava, Adarsh theorised that the audience will come to the theatres if the industry gives them "films worth watching". In fact, OTT platforms are a boon for producers as far as revenue goes, he added.
Echoing Adarsh, Motwane said that the audience wants a "theatrical spectacle or a communal watching experience, whether that means entertainment, scares, or laughter."
"They want something that is worth the ticket price. I think if you see some of the things that are happening in the films that have worked – there is a slightly higher risk involved when it comes to the stories or the strategy.”Vikramaditya Motwane
Kohli-Khandekar pointed at the faulty film marketing strategy. “You can’t just release a trailer, and say ‘Picture ki marketing ho gayi’ (The marketing for the film is done). Why are there not enough posters? It doesn’t matter if your trailer gets a billion views,” she said.
"It has become too metro-centric. A lot of exhibitors in small towns tell me there was a time actors used to go to these small towns, but not anymore. In an atmosphere when the habit (of theatre-going) is broken, why are they not trying to reach more people?" she asked.
She further added that small towns also do not have enough screens.
"There is a paucity of screens in India. India has six screens for every million compared to say 125 in the US or 30 in China."Vanita Kohli-Khandekar
“It's not just about Mumbai, Delhi, Hyderabad, Chennai; it is also other cities and towns. There is a paucity of screens in places where people want to watch,” she further said.
Even as exhibitors argue low occupancy (30-35 percent) as a reason for their reluctance to increase more screens, Kohli-Khandekar argued, “The fact is that there aren't enough screens in areas where you could achieve 40-45 percent occupancy."