Out of the seven phases of the UP Assembly polls this year, which are the phases which turned out to be the make-or-break turning points of the election for the BJP and SP?
How did the two parties perform phase-wise, and what were the factors which helped the BJP repeat a saffron sweep of Uttar Pradesh?
The final results are in - and here is what the number-crunching shows. Only in the seventh and final phase of the election did the SP alliance equal the BJP tally. In all the other six phases, the BJP outweighed its opposition, and quite significantly so.
The Phase-wise Numbers
Here are the phase-wise results.
Phase 1 (58 seats) - BJP+: 46 (all BJP), SP+: 12 (SP: 5, RLD: 7)
Phase 2 (55 seats) - BJP+: 32 (all BJP), SP+: 23 (all SP)
Phase 3 (59 seats) - BJP+: 44 (BJP: 41, ADS: 3), SP+: 15 (SP: 14, RLD: 1)
Phase 4 (59 seats) - BJP+: 49 (BJP: 48, ADS: 1), SP+: 10 (all SP)
Phase 5 (61 seats) - BJP+: 36 (BJP: 32:, ADS: 4), SP+: 22 (all SP), Others: 3 (Cong: 1, JSDL: 2)
Phase 6 (57 seats) - BJP+: 39 (BJP: 35, ADS: 1, NISHAD: 3), SP+: 16 (SP: 14, SBSP: 2), Others: 2 (BSP: 1, Cong: 1)
Phase 7 (54 seats) - BJP+: 27 (BJP: 21, ADS: 3, NISHAD: 3), SP+: 27 (SP: 23, SBSP: 4)
Total (403 seats) - BJP+: 273 (BJP: 255, ADS: 12, NISHAD: 6), SP+: 125 (SP: 111, RLD: 8, SBSP: 6), Others: 5 (Cong: 2, JSDL: 2, BSP: 1)
Phase 1: RLD Builds Back in West UP, But BJP Dominates SP Alliance
Phase 1 (58 seats): BJP+: 46 (all BJP), SP+: 12 (SP: 5, RLD: 7)
SP had hoped that its ally the Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) would help bring their alliance a decisive edge over the BJP in west UP, what with the RLD's appeal among Jat voters of the region and the disaffection of those voters against the Modi government's farm laws.
Jayant Chaudhary's RLD won 7 seats in the first phase, with the SP winning 5. The RLD drastically improved its tally from just 1 seat in 2017, and with 8 new MLAs in all, the RLD is almost back to its numerical strength a decade ago. The party had won 9 seats in the 2012 Assembly polls and 10 in the 2007 election.
But the RLD's improvement wasn't enough to get the SP-RLD alliance the edge in Phase 1. The BJP far outshone the SP alliance, winning as many as 46 of the 58 seats up for grabs.
Phase 2: SP's Second-best Phase This Election
Phase 2 (55 seats) - BJP+: 32 (all BJP), SP+: 23 (all SP)
The SP had a very good showing in Phase 2 of the election, winning more than 40% of the 55 seats that went to polls on 14 February.
Statistically, this was SP's second-best phase out of the seven phases in this election.
The SP performed well in the Rohilkhand region, in places with a high Muslim population. In Rohilkhand, the BJP reduced its tally from 37 in 2017 to 30 in 2022, while the SP improved its total from 14 to 21.
In 2017, the Muslim vote in this region had split between the BSP and the SP-Congress alliance, and led to the BJP winning a number of such seats. But this time, the Muslim vote seems to have consolidated behind the Samajwadi Party, helping them shore up their performance in Phase 2 of the election.
Phase 3: Where BJP Began Taking the Game Away
Phase 3 (59 seats) - BJP+: 44 (BJP: 41, ADS: 3), SP+: 15 (SP: 14, RLD: 1)
That the BJP would do better than the SP in Phases 3 and 4 was expected, but it is the complete domination in these two phases that really took the election away from Akhilesh Yadav.
In these two phases combined, the BJP alliance won 93 seats, while the SP alliance could only muster 25 seats.
The red pocket in Phase 3 on the map shows Akhilesh Yadav and co. holding on to SP strongholds in Mainpuri and Etawah, and the party doing well in the adjoining areas of Firozabad and Auraiya as well. Barring this, Phase 3 was almost entirely a rout by the BJP.
Phase 4: Absolute Domination by the BJP, SP's Worst Phase
Phase 4 (59 seats) - BJP+: 49 (BJP: 48, ADS: 1), SP+: 10 (all SP)
If Phase 3 was bad for the SP, Phase 4 was worse. This was statistically the SP's worst phase this election, winning only 10 out of 59 seats, a conversion rate of only 16%.
Over phases 4 and 5, in which several constituencies belonged to the Avadh and Bundelkhand regions, the BJP continued to perform very well. For example, in 2017, the BJP had won all 20 seats in the Bundelkhand region. This time too, they won 17 out of the 20, with SP winning the remaining 3. In the Avadh region on the whole, BJP won 54 of the 76 seats, with SP winning 21. The BSP and Congress presence here in 2017 (5 seats and 3 seats respectively) was almost entirely wiped out. In 2022, the BSP has been reduced to zero seats in Avadh and the Congress to 1, a reflection of the poor performance by both the parties this election. While Mayawati's BSP has only won 1 seat in the whole of UP, the Congress is only marginally better placed at 2 seats.
Phase 5: SP Recovers, Wins Over 20 Seats
Phase 5 (61 seats) - BJP+: 36 (BJP: 32:, ADS: 4), SP+: 22 (all SP), Others: 3 (Cong: 1, JSDL: 2)
In Phase 5, the SP performed reasonably well in comparison to the BJP, winning 22 seats compared to the BJP alliance's 36. With a good showing in districts such as Kaushambi, Pratapgarh, Ayodhya and Sultanpur, the SP stemmed the rout that they faced in Phases 3 and 4, and added significantly to their overall tally.
Phase 6: BJP's OBC Neta Exodus Fails to Turn It Around in East UP
Phase 6 (57 seats) - BJP+: 39 (BJP: 35, ADS: 1, NISHAD: 3), SP+: 16 (SP: 14, SBSP: 2), Others: 2 (BSP: 1, Cong: 1)
In the run-up to the election, the exodus of a string of OBC leaders from the BJP and their migration to the SP created quite the excitement in political circles. But the OBC neta exodus proved to be an overhyped phenomenon.
Swami Prasad Maurya, a minister in Yogi's cabinet and the biggest name among those who migrated from the BJP to the SP in January this year, lost from the Fazilnagar seat in Kushinagar district. Swami Prasad lost to the BJP's Surender Singh Kushwaha by a margin of more than 45,000 votes.
In all, the SP alliance managed to win 16 seats in Phase 5, far behind the BJP alliance's tally of 39.
Phase 7: The Phase Where SP Won More Seats Than BJP, And SP Alliance Equalled BJP Alliance
Phase 7 (54 seats) - BJP+: 27 (BJP: 21, ADS: 3, NISHAD: 3), SP+: 27 (SP: 23, SBSP: 4)
This phase saw SP's best performance by far. The 54 seats in the final phase of the election were split exactly evenly between the two competing alliances.
Not just that, the SP's own tally of 23 seats outnumbered the BJP's total of 21 seats in this phase, making it the only phase where the SP outperformed the BJP.
SP had a clean sweep in the districts of Ambedkar Nagar and Azamgarh, winning all 10 seats in Azamgarh, and all 5 seats in Ambedkar Nagar.
In the 9 seats in Jaunpur, the SP alliance won 5 and the BJP alliance won 4.
4 out of the 6 seats won by a key SP ally, OP Rajbhar's Suheldev Bhartiya Samaj Party (SBSP) in this election were in Phase 7 (the other two were in Phase 6), further strengthening the SP tally in the final phase.
Compare 2022 and 2017 Results
And this is what the final results map looks like. Take a look at UP's new political map in 2022, and compare it with the 2017 results below.
While saffron has undoubtedly swept UP again, the SP's rise from 47 seats to 111 and the Akhilesh-led alliance's tally of 125 seats has ensured that even as Yogi Adityanath returns to power, the BJP will have an Opposition with a decent numerical strength in the newly-formed UP Assembly.
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