In the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP pulled off a major upset in the Udhampur Doda constituency in Jammu and Kashmir, where Jitendra Singh defeated veteran Congress leader and former Jammu and Kashmir chief minister Ghulam Nabi Azad by a a little over 60,000 votes.
Besides a broader wave in favour of Narendra Modi and against the Congress, two micro factors contributed to Jitendra Singh’s win:
- PDP candidate Mohammad Arshad Malik polled over 30,000 votes. Most of these are from pockets where Muslim voters are in comparatively higher numbers such as Kishtwar, Ramban, Banihal, Gool Arnas and Gulab Garh. Most of these votes would probably have gone to the Congress.
- Former Udhampur MP Chaudhary Lal Singh had rebelled from the Congress and had decided to harm his former party in the seat.
But then what goes around, comes around. The same two factors are now harming Jitendra Singh’s chances, as Udhampur goes to vote on Thursday, 18 April.